28.03.2019
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (22-27 March, 2019)
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the rating Group based on the third week of March, more than 80% of respondents to some extent declare their readiness to take part in the Presidential election on March 31, 2019. In particular, half of respondents are absolutely confident that they will vote, while another third say they are more likely to vote than not.
- At the same time, 58% are fully confident in their choice of candidate and will definitely come to vote for them. Meanwhile, about a quarter are not confident in their choice, but believe they will still go to vote.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi remains the leader of the presidential rating, supported by 26.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko share second place, each supported by 17% of voters. Anatolii Hrytsenko is supported by 9.8%, Yurii Boiko by 9.5%, Oleh Liashko by 5.4%, Oleksandr Vilkul by 4%, Ihor Smeshko by 3.5%, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi by 1.9%.
- Every sixth respondent has not decided on a candidate. It is important that the largest share of undecided voters is found among the poorest voters, residents of Central and Western Ukraine, women, middle-aged people, and Ukrainian speakers.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi has the strongest electoral positions in the south-eastern regions and in the Center of the country. Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are strongest in the Center and the West, Anatolii Hrytsenko in the West, and Yurii Boiko and Oleksandr Vilkul in the East and South of the country. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is the leader of electoral sympathies in cities, while Yuliia Tymoshenko leads in villages. Zelenskyi is most popular among young and middle-aged voters, Tymoshenko among older voters, while Poroshenko has the strongest positions among middle-aged voters. If Zelenskyi and Hrytsenko are relatively more often supported by men, Tymoshenko is more often supported by women, and Poroshenko is supported equally by men and women.
- Almost 41% of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will advance to the second round of the presidential election, 38% believe Yuliia Tymoshenko will do so, and 37% believe Petro Poroshenko will. Six percent of voters believe Yurii Boiko or Anatolii Hrytsenko will reach the second round. Belief in Poroshenko’s advancement to the second round is relatively higher in the West, in Tymoshenko’s advancement in the Center, and in Zelenskyi’s advancement in the South and East. Voters in Western Ukraine are the least certain about the participants of the second round.
- The leaders of the so-called “second choice” (who respondents would vote for if the candidate they currently support does not participate in the election) are Volodymyr Zelenskyi (8.1%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (7.3%), and Yuliia Tymoshenko (6%). Almost 5% of voters would support Oleksandr Vilkul if their candidate did not run, while about 3% would support Yurii Boiko, Petro Poroshenko, Ihor Smeshko, or Oleh Liashko.
- Voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, among all other candidates, mostly allow the possibility of supporting Yuliia Tymoshenko, while half would not choose any other candidate at all. Voters of Anatolii Hrytsenko allow the possibility of supporting Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Petro Poroshenko, and Ihor Smeshko. Voters of Yuliia Tymoshenko allow Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Anatolii Hrytsenko, and Oleh Liashko. Voters of Oleksandr Vilkul allow Yurii Boiko, and voters of Yurii Boiko allow Oleksandr Vilkul (the electorates of the latter overlap by almost half). Petro Poroshenko has the most stable electorate: the majority would not choose any other candidate, allowing only minor transfers to Anatolii Hrytsenko. Supporters of Ihor Smeshko allow the possibility of supporting Anatolii Hrytsenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi; supporters of Oleh Liashko allow Yuliia Tymoshenko, Anatolii Hrytsenko, and Volodymyr Zelenskyi; and voters of Ruslan Koshulynskyi allow Anatolii Hrytsenko and Petro Poroshenko
Methodology
- Audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age, gender, region, and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 3,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error: no more than 1.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: March 22–27, 2019.
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