25.09.2018
Electoral moods of Ukrainians
- According to a study conducted by the Rating Group, 73% of respondents believe that Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction. Only 15% think the country is developing in the right direction, while 13% were undecided. Young people assess the situation more optimistically: about one quarter of youth believe the country is moving in the right direction. Older respondents are the most pessimistic. In electoral terms, dissatisfaction with the current situation is highest among supporters of Vadym Rabinovych, Yurii Boiko, and Yuliia Tymoshenko, while nearly three quarters of Petro Poroshenko’s supporters are convinced that the country’s direction is correct.
- A clear majority (64%) believe the country needs radical changes. At the same time, 12% prefer that everything remain as it is, and 19% support a return to the past. Over recent months, the share of those demanding radical change has slightly decreased, while support for stabilization or a return to previous conditions has grown. Calls for radical change are more common in Western Ukraine, whereas preferences for stabilization or a return to the past are more prevalent in the South and East. Supporters of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, Anatolii Hrytsenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Andrii Sadovyi most often advocate change; voters of Petro Poroshenko tend to favor stabilization, while supporters of Yurii Boiko and Vadym Rabinovych are more inclined toward a return to the past.
- Regarding parliamentary elections, 42% say they would look for an alternative among new political parties, while 38% intend to vote for parties already represented in parliament. Readiness to support non-parliamentary parties is higher among supporters of Servant of the People, For Life, Svoboda, and among undecided voters. By contrast, voters of parliamentary forces such as BPP Solidarity, Batkivshchyna, the Radical Party, and the Opposition Bloc more often prefer established political projects.
- Two thirds of respondents believe that the 2019 presidential election will not be fair; only 16% think it will be fair, while one quarter were undecided. Skepticism about election fairness is strongest among supporters of Yurii Boiko, Vadym Rabinovych, and among those who do not intend to vote at all.
- Public opinion is split on leadership experience: 43% believe the next president should have significant governing experience, while nearly the same share prefer a new figure without state governance experience. Demand for “new faces” is highest among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, while preference for an experienced politician dominates among supporters of Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko.
- The top demand placed on the future president is ending the war in Eastern Ukraine (66%). Other expectations include fighting corruption (49%), raising social standards (34%), reviving industry (33%), and improving healthcare quality (24%). Every sixth respondent also expects reduced oligarchic influence, revival of the agricultural sector, and stimulation of business development. In recent months, demand has increased for ending hostilities, improving social standards and healthcare, and supporting business. Younger and middle-aged respondents emphasize anti-corruption, industrial revival, and business development, while older respondents prioritize social standards and healthcare.
- In the presidential vote intention, Yuliia Tymoshenko leads with 13.2% of all respondents. She is followed by Volodymyr Zelenskyi (7.8%), Petro Poroshenko (6.8%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (6.6%), Yurii Boiko (5.7%), Vadym Rabinovych (5.4%), Oleh Liashko (5.2%), and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (5.0%). Other candidates each receive less than 2.5%. 17.0% are undecided, and 12.6% do not plan to vote.
- Support for Tymoshenko is relatively even across regions, with a stronger base in Central Ukraine. Zelenskyi performs better in the Center and South; Poroshenko and Hrytsenko in the West; Boiko and Rabinovych have their strongest support in the South-East.
- The so-called “second-choice” rating indicates that Hrytsenko, Tymoshenko, and Zelenskyi could each gain up to an additional 5% if voters’ primary candidates withdrew. Vakarchuk could gain 4.4%, Rabinovych 3.8%, Sadovyi 3.4%, Liashko 2.8%, Nalyvaichenko and Shevchenko about 2.2% each.
- Petro Poroshenko continues to top the anti-rating: about half of voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. Around a quarter would not support Oleh Liashko, Yuliia Tymoshenko, Arsenii Yatseniuk, or Yurii Boiko; nearly one sixth would not support Vadym Rabinovych or Oleh Tiahnybok.
- Belief in electoral victory has grown for Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko: 18% think Tymoshenko will become president, and 14% believe Poroshenko will win. Fewer than 4% expect victory by other candidates, while nearly half are unsure.
- Only one third of respondents say they would personally participate in rallies or demonstrations in support of their preferred candidate; 62% would not. Willingness to mobilize is highest among supporters of Zelenskyi, Vakarchuk, and Hrytsenko.
- About one third would vote for another candidate if their preferred one withdrew in favor of someone else; 20% would switch to a different candidate regardless, 20% would abstain, and one quarter are undecided. Supporters of Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Boiko, and Rabinovych are most likely to follow their candidate’s endorsement, while among voters of Sadovyi, Liashko, Hrytsenko, Vakarchuk, and Zelenskyi this share is about 40%. Voters in the South and East more often say they would abstain under such circumstances than those in the West and Center.
- In the party rating, Batkivshchyna leads with 14%. It is followed by Servant of the People (8.2%), For Life (6.4%), Civic Position (6.2%), BPP Solidarity (5.9%), Opposition Bloc (5.8%), Radical Party (4.6%), Self-Reliance (3.4%), and Svoboda (2.7%). Other parties poll below 2%. 17.1% are undecided, and 14.4% do not plan to vote in parliamentary elections. Batkivshchyna’s support is relatively even nationwide, with its strongest showing in Central Ukraine; For Life and the Opposition Bloc dominate in the South-East; Civic Position in the West and Center; Servant of the People in the Center and South; and BPP Solidarity, Self-Reliance, and Svoboda in the West.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2500 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 10-18 September 2018
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