22.02.2018
Moods and expectations of the Ukrainians: regional specifics
- According to a study conducted by Rating Group, 59% of respondents believe that the country needs radical change. Another 15% think things should remain as they are, so long as they do not get worse, and the same share would prefer a return to how things were in the past. Support for radical change is strongest among residents of Halychyna, while nostalgia for the past is most common in the non-occupied areas of Donbas, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia. Even in these regions, however, expectations of radical change significantly outweigh other attitudes.
- A quarter of respondents expect their family’s life to improve over the next five years. Thirty-seven percent believe it will remain unchanged, 18% expect it to worsen, and 21% were unable to assess their family’s future prospects. Optimism is most widespread in the western regions and in the capital area (Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast), although even there it is not dominant, as at least half believe their family’s situation will either stay the same or deteriorate.
- The most important problem for the country, in the view of respondents, is the military conflict in eastern Ukraine (75%). Almost half also point to bribery and corruption in government. Unemployment is named by 28%, while 19% mention rising prices for goods and low wages or pensions. Seventeen percent point to social inequality and the gap between rich and poor. Fifteen percent refer to rising utility tariffs and an insufficient level of social protection, 12% to rising crime and the inability to access quality medical care, 8% to unfavorable conditions for small and medium-sized businesses, 6% to a lack of freedom and democracy, and 4% to the inability to obtain a quality education.
- At the personal level, the most pressing issues are low wages and pensions (52%), rising prices and inflation (51%), and higher utility tariffs (50%). Around one in five also cite the war in eastern Ukraine, lack of access to quality healthcare, and unemployment as personal problems. About 14–15% mention insufficient social protection and corruption, and 11% point to social inequality. Other issues concern fewer than 8% of respondents.
- More than 90% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as either critical or tense (33% and 59% respectively), with only 3% describing it as calm. High levels of perceived tension were recorded in all regions without exception.
- Despite this high level of social strain, a relative majority favors constructive rather than radical ways of resolving the crisis. Forty-four percent believe that real criminal investigations into corruption at the highest levels of government would most help reduce tensions. Thirty-seven percent say that projects aimed at improving people’s material conditions and living standards would help, and 35% point to real progress in Donbas, such as a ceasefire or the release of prisoners. Twenty percent believe broader public oversight of government actions would also reduce tensions.
- In the presidential рейтинги, Yuliya Tymoshenko leads, with 18.7% of those who would participate in elections and have decided on their choice saying they would vote for her. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 15.6%, Yurii Boiko by 11.7%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 9.7%, Oleh Liashko by 8.7%, Vadym Rabinovych by 8.3%, Andrii Sadovyi by 6.4%, Oleh Tyahnybok by 3.9%, and Arsenii Yatseniuk by 1.7%. Another 15.3% would vote for other candidates not listed.
- Tymoshenko leads in almost all regions of Central Ukraine and parts of the West, and is among the top three candidates in nearly every region. Poroshenko has strong positions in parts of the West and in Kyiv, while Boiko leads in most regions of the South and East.
- Support for Tymoshenko is relatively even across the Center, North, West, and part of the South. Poroshenko’s strongest support is in Vinnytsia Oblast, somewhat lower in the West and Center, and lower still in the South. Hrytsenko’s base is mainly in parts of the West, Kyiv Oblast, and Cherkasy Oblast. Liashko is strongest in the North and in Bukovyna, Sadovyi in Halychyna, Volyn, and Khmelnytskyi, while Rabinovych and Boiko draw their support primarily from the South and East, with Boiko’s voters more concentrated in the industrial eastern regions.
- Modeling a second-round presidential runoff between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko shows that 30% of those intending to participate in the main election would vote for Tymoshenko, while 23% would support Poroshenko. Twenty-eight percent would refuse to participate in such a second round, and 19% are undecided. Poroshenko would win in only three regions—Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Chernivtsi—while the candidates would receive roughly equal support in Rivne, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Donetsk oblasts and Kyiv. Tymoshenko would win in the remaining seventeen regions.
- The pro-European vector dominates in almost all regions except Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donbas. Overall, 52% would support EU membership in a referendum, 27% would oppose it, and 20% would either be undecided or not vote.
- Support for NATO membership has increased by one and a half times over the past three years. Today 43% support joining the Alliance, while 34% oppose it, and nearly a quarter are undecided or would not vote. Support for NATO is lower in the South and East and is weakest among the oldest respondents.
- One third of respondents regret the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, while 55% do not feel nostalgic for it. Nostalgia is strongest in the South and East and weakest in the West, and it correlates regionally with opposition to NATO membership.
- Pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian orientations are clearly dominant in society. At least half of respondents want their children to live in Ukraine, about one third would choose the European Union, 7% the United States, and only 2% Russia, a pattern broadly consistent across regions.
- Forty-seven percent say they use Ukrainian at home, 29% use both Ukrainian and Russian, 24% use Russian, and 1% another language. Exclusive use of Ukrainian is most common in the West, North, and Center, while Russian is more prevalent in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donbas; elsewhere both languages are widely used.
- Support for Ukrainian as the sole state language continues to grow: 61% now favor it, compared with 47% in 2014. Another 20% support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 15% favor making Russian a state language. Support for granting Russian any special status is highest in the South and East.
- Forty-three percent believe Ukraine should become a major agricultural power, and the same share believe it should focus on high-technology industries and manufacturing. The agricultural path is more popular in the West and Center, while technological development is favored in the East, South, and in the capital.
- The idea of allowing the sale of agricultural land is not supported by society: 77% oppose it, only about 10% support it, and 13% are undecided.
- Half of respondents think Ukraine should be a parliamentary-presidential republic, 17% prefer a purely parliamentary system, 14% a presidential one, and 20% are undecided.
- Only 28% believe Ukraine needs a dictatorship led by a strong leader, while 56% oppose dictatorship and 16% are undecided.
- Two thirds support a unitary state, 19% favor a federal structure, and 19% are undecided. Support for federalism is highest in Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv oblasts, though even there supporters of a unitary state still predominate.
- Regarding ways to resolve the Donbas issue, most respondents support peaceful initiatives. Thirty-two percent favor a ceasefire and recognition of the territories as temporarily occupied, and 21% favor granting them federal status within Ukraine. Eight percent support separation from Ukraine, and 18% are undecided. At the same time, 21% believe military action should continue until full restoration of Ukrainian control, especially in the West and Center, although even there peaceful approaches prevail.
Methodology
- Audience: the adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and over.
- Sample size: 30,000 respondents (1,200 in each region).
- Sampling: representative by age, gender, region, and type of settlement.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error: not more than 0.6%.
- Fieldwork dates: December 12–28, 2017.
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