19.12.2019
Social and political sentiments of the population (December 13–17, 2019)
- According to the results of the survey conducted by the Rating Group during December 13–17, 2019, 40% of respondents believe that the country is moving in the right direction, 38% believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 22% were unable to assess the situation. Over the past two weeks, there has been an increase in positive assessments (from 33% to 40%) and a decrease in negative ones (from 48% to 38%). As a result, the indicators returned to the level recorded in October. Relatively more optimism regarding the situation in the country is observed among residents of the South region, younger respondents, and voters of the Servant of the People party.
- Over the past two weeks, the level of satisfaction with the performance of President Zelenskyy increased from 53% to 62%, while dissatisfaction decreased from 33% to 25%.
- Regarding the performance of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Razumkov, 36% of respondents are satisfied and the same share are dissatisfied, while one quarter were unable to assess his work. At the same time, assessments of the Parliament’s performance are lower: 29% evaluated its work positively, 51% negatively, and 21% were unable to assess it.
- A similar trend is observed in the assessment of the Government’s performance: satisfaction with the activity of Prime Minister Honcharuk is relatively higher than with the work of the Cabinet of Ministers as a whole. Thirty-five percent expressed satisfaction with the Prime Minister’s performance, 35% were dissatisfied, and 30% were unable to assess it. Twenty-nine percent are satisfied with the work of the Cabinet of Ministers, 45% are dissatisfied, and one quarter did not answer this question. Over the past month, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the Prime Minister and the Verkhovna Rada has increased slightly.
- One third of Ukrainian respondents believe that, overall, President Zelenskyy’s actions during the year had more successes than failures. Forty-one percent said that successes and failures were balanced, and only 14% stated that failures prevailed in his work. This latter view is most common among voters of the European Solidarity party. At the same time, when assessing the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Verkhovna Rada, respondents were more critical: about one quarter believe that there were more failures, around 40% said that successes and failures were balanced, and only about 10% believe that successes prevailed. More critical assessments of these institutions were observed among voters of all parliamentary parties except Servant of the People, although even among its supporters neutral assessments dominated.
- As of mid-December, the leader of electoral sympathies is the Servant of the People party, supported by almost 48% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Opposition Platform – For Life party is supported by 11.4%, European Solidarity by 9.0%, Batkivshchyna by 7.8%, and Voice by 4.4%. Support for other political forces is below 3%. About 16% remain undecided.
- Trust ratings among Ukrainians are led by V. Zelenskyy, who is trusted by 67% of respondents and not trusted by 25%. He is followed by D. Razumkov (28% trust and 44% distrust) and S. Vakarchuk (28% and 59%). Further positions are held by Y. Boyko (23% and 58%), O. Honcharuk (22% and 44%), and Y. Tymoshenko (19% and 74%).
- Sixty-six percent of respondents stated that they are well informed about the Normandy Format summit held on December 9. Among them, about 40% consider the summit results rather a success of President Zelenskyy, half consider them neither a success nor a failure, and only 7% saw exclusively negative results. Twenty percent heard something about the summit, while 12% know nothing about it. Older respondents, voters of European Solidarity and the Opposition Platform – For Life are the most informed.
- After the Paris summit, Ukrainians improved their attitudes toward German Chancellor Merkel, with positive perceptions increasing from 60% to 69%, and toward French President Macron, from 39% to 52%. As a result, Merkel for the first time in the past five years topped the рейтинг of world leaders in assessments by Ukrainians, surpassing Belarusian President Lukashenka, who is viewed positively by 65% of respondents. Attitudes toward Russian President Putin remained unchanged: 16% positive and 72% negative.
- Assessments of Macron and Merkel are relatively evenly distributed across regions and electoral groups. In contrast, attitudes toward Lukashenka and Putin show clear differences: trust in the latter is significantly higher in the South and East regions. Supporters of European Solidarity and Voice trust Lukashenka somewhat less, while supporters of the Opposition Platform – For Life trust him more; the latter are also the only supporters among parliamentary party voters who trust Putin.
- Over the past month, the share of respondents who consider Russia an aggressor country toward Ukraine increased from 64% to 70%. Twenty-one percent hold the opposite view, most commonly in the South and especially the East regions, as well as among supporters of the Opposition Platform – For Life.
- Almost two thirds of respondents support diplomatic ways of resolving the Donbas issue: 38% support ending hostilities and recognizing the territories as temporarily occupied and freezing the conflict, while 22% support granting these territories autonomous status within Ukraine. Only 8% support their complete separation. At the same time, 16% support continuing military actions until full restoration of Ukrainian control over Donbas. Over the past month, the number of supporters of a military solution has slightly decreased, being highest among supporters of European Solidarity and lowest among supporters of the Opposition Platform – For Life.
- One quarter of respondents believe that establishing peace in Donbas will take less than one year, one third believe it will take from one to five years, and 16% believe it will take more than five years. Only 7% believe that peace in the occupied Donbas is impossible. Regarding the full return of the occupied territories, opinions differ: 22% believe it will take more than five years, one third estimate one to five years, and only 14% believe it will take less than one year. Nine percent believe that the occupied territories in the East of Ukraine cannot be returned. Residents of the East region more often believe in a quick establishment of peace, while assessments of reintegration timelines are less optimistic.
- In December, support for the pro-European vector of the country’s development increased: 60% support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (57% in November), and 52% support accession to NATO (48% in November). Clear regional differences persist in foreign policy orientation: supporters of a pro-Western course are more prevalent in the West and Center regions, while opponents dominate in the South and East regions. Among residents of the south-eastern regions, support prevails for the idea of equidistance from Russia and the West, or for pro-Russian orientations.
Methodology
- The survey audience consisted of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age, gender, region, and type of settlement.
- The sample size was 2,500 respondents.
- The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews.
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: December 13–17, 2019.
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