21.12.2017
Socio-political moods of the population: November 2017
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group in November 2017, the leader in party electoral preferences is the Fatherland (Batkivshchyna) party, which 16.8% of decided voters who intend to participate in the election said they would support. Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” is backed by 14.5%, the Opposition Bloc by 9.4%, the For Life party by 8.9%, the Radical Party by 7.7%, Civic Position by 6.8%, Samopomich by 6.5%, and Svoboda by 5.6%. All other parties score below 3%.
- In the parties’ “anti-rating,” the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” leads, as 22.5% of those who plan to vote said they would never support it under any circumstances. The Opposition Bloc is rejected by 11.5%, the Radical Party by 7.4%, Fatherland by 6.2%, the People’s Front by 6.1%, and Svoboda by 4.0%.
- In the presidential ranking, Yuliya Tymoshenko is in first place, with 15.8% of decided voters willing to vote for her. She is followed by Petro Poroshenko with 13.8%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk with 9.6%, Vadym Rabinovych with 8.4%, Anatolii Hrytsenko with 8.3%, Oleh Liashko with 8.0%, Yurii Boiko with 7.0%, Oleh Tyahnybok with 4.7%, and both Volodymyr Groysman and Andrii Sadovyi with 4.6% each.
- In the politicians’ “anti-rating,” Petro Poroshenko again ranks first: 23.9% of those intending to vote said they would never vote for him. Oleh Liashko is rejected by 10.2%, Yurii Boiko by 9.8%, Arsenii Yatseniuk by 8.5%, Yuliya Tymoshenko by 6.8%, Oleh Tyahnybok by 5.1%, Vadym Rabinovych by 4.8%, and Volodymyr Groysman by 3.1%.
- Modeling a second round of the presidential election between Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko shows that 27% would support Tymoshenko and 21% would vote for Poroshenko. At the same time, 37% said they would not participate in such a runoff, and 13% were undecided.
- Early parliamentary elections are supported by 47% of respondents, while 41% oppose them and 12% are undecided. Early presidential elections are supported by 44%, opposed by 46%, and 10% are undecided.
- Thirty-three percent of respondents support organizing nationwide mass protests to remove the current authorities, while 54% oppose this idea and 13% are undecided. Support for mass protests is most common in the western regions and among supporters of the Radical Party and the For Life party.
- Forty-five percent believe that Petro Poroshenko should be allowed to complete his presidential term and then be replaced through elections. Thirty-eight percent favor his immediate removal from office, while only 5% support his re-election. Twelve percent are undecided.
- If a referendum on introducing a visa regime with Russia were held, 32% would support it, while 51% would oppose it, 4% would not vote, and 13% are undecided. Support for visas with Russia is highest in the western regions, where 42% favor the idea, although a similar share there also oppose it. In other macro-regions, opponents outnumber supporters. Among party supporters, the strongest advocates of visas with Russia are voters of Svoboda, Civic Position, and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, while the strongest opponents are supporters of the Opposition Bloc and the For Life party.
- Granting Russian the status of a state language is supported by 29% of respondents, while 63% oppose it and 8% are undecided. In the East and South, at least 40% support bilingualism, but a similar share are also opposed. Support for two state languages is lowest in the West.
- Fifty-nine percent support a unitary system for Ukraine, while 23% favor a federal system. Support for federalism is highest in the South and East, at around 32–33%.
- Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is supported by 59% of respondents, opposed by 26%, with 11% undecided and 4% saying they would not vote in such a referendum. Support is highest in the West (81%) and lowest in the East (39%). Among party supporters, the strongest backing for EU membership comes from supporters of Samopomich and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, while it is lowest among supporters of the Opposition Bloc and the For Life party.
- Ukraine’s accession to NATO would be supported by 47% of respondents, opposed by 36%, with 13% undecided and 4% saying they would not vote. As with EU membership, support is highest in the West (71%) and lowest in the East (25%), and opposition is strongest among supporters of the Opposition Bloc and the For Life party.
- Regarding Donbas, 43% support a political and diplomatic path to reintegration. Seventeen percent favor ceasing hostilities and freezing the conflict, 13% support granting the territories autonomous status within Ukraine, 11% favor returning them by force, 8% support their separation from Ukraine, and 9% are undecided. Ceasing hostilities or granting autonomy is more popular in the South and East, while military reconquest is more popular in the West and Center. At the same time, at least 40% in every macro-region support a political and diplomatic solution.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2,2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 22-30 November 2017
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