21.11.2017
Socio-political moods of Ukrainians: November 2017
- According to a nationwide sociological survey conducted between October 28 and November 14, 2017 by four polling organizations — SOCIS, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Rating Group, and the Razumkov Centre — with the support of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, the most urgent problems for most respondents were the war in eastern Ukraine (51.3%) and socio-economic issues, including rising prices (37%), low wages and pensions (36%), unemployment (27.1%), and high utility tariffs (26.9%). A substantial share of the population also named corruption in the central government (22.9%) and problems in healthcare (22.9%) among the country’s most serious challenges.
- Among the positive changes observed in respondents’ local communities over the past year, many mentioned road repairs (44.9%), higher pensions (27.3%), and improved public amenities in towns and villages (26.6%). At the time of the survey, 55.8% of households were already receiving increased pensions.
- If a presidential election were held on the coming Sunday, Petro Poroshenko would receive the highest support, with 16.1% of respondents ready to vote for him. Yuliya Tymoshenko (14.4%) and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (12.1%) would take second and third place respectively. Yurii Boiko and Anatolii Hrytsenko would each receive 9.3%, Vadym Rabinovych 7.9%, and Oleh Liashko 7.5%. These figures are calculated among respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Overall, about 21% of voters were undecided, while 18% said they did not plan to participate in the election.
- When asked who they personally believed would win the presidential election, respondents most often named Petro Poroshenko (19.2%), followed by Yuliya Tymoshenko (10.1%). At the same time, a large share of respondents (42%) could not say who they thought would become the next President of Ukraine.
- The survey also addressed attitudes toward the electoral system for the Verkhovna Rada. About 30% of Ukrainians support a majoritarian system, while 27% believe the current mixed system is the best option. Only 19% favor a proportional system in which voters cast ballots exclusively for party lists.
- At the time of the survey, the leading parties in parliamentary voting intentions were Batkivshchyna and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” with Batkivshchyna slightly ahead (9.7% versus 9.4% among all respondents). Under these conditions, seven parties would enter parliament, and the projected distribution of seats by party lists would be as follows: Batkivshchyna 47 seats, Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” 45, Opposition Bloc 31, Civic Position 30, For Life 27, the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko 23, and Samopomich 22.
- A large majority of Ukrainians (68.2%) described the current situation in the country as tense, while 21.9% called it explosive and only 6.2% said it was stable.
- Public attitudes show a tendency toward preferring peaceful and less radical forms of protest. Most respondents said they were ready to express protest through participation in elections (58.9%) or by signing petitions and appeals (26.7%). Nearly 60% would not support organizing a new Maidan, and only 9.2% said they would personally take part in such protests.
- Public opinion continues to support the government’s declared course toward European integration and NATO membership. EU accession is backed by a clear majority of the population (56.2%), and support for joining NATO (43.2%) significantly exceeds opposition (33.3%).
- When it comes to Ukraine’s future development path, society is currently divided between supporters of integration with the European Union (44.9%) and those who favor Ukraine pursuing its own independent path of development (40%).
Methodology
- Research method: personalized face-to-face interview at the place of residence of the respondent.
- Sample: 20,000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population of Ukraine over the age of 18 years in terms of gender, age, type of settlement, and region of residence.
- Statistical margin of error: not more than 0,7% at rates close to 50%, not more than 0,4% at rates close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 28, October – 14, November, 2017
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