Socio-political mood in Ternopil

Press

Download report (UKR)

26.07.2016

Socio-political mood in Ternopil

According to a study conducted by the Rating Group in the city of Ternopil, 74% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, only 11% believe they are moving in the right direction, and 15% are undecided. Even among supporters of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc (BPP), more people think the country is moving in the wrong direction than in the right one. The highest level of pessimism is found among supporters of the Radical Party and Svoboda.
At the same time, 54% believe that the situation in Ternopil is moving in the right direction, 22% say it is moving in the wrong direction, and 24% are undecided. Two thirds of supporters of Svoboda, Civic Position, Batkivshchyna, and BPP believe that the city is developing in the right direction. Among Samopomich and Radical Party supporters, about half hold this view.
Regarding the Ternopil oblast, 37% believe affairs are moving in the right direction, 31% say in the wrong direction, and 32% are undecided. The most positive assessments come from BPP and Svoboda supporters, while the most negative come from Radical Party supporters.
More than 80% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of Ternopil’s mayor, Serhiy Nadal. 14% are dissatisfied. The head of the Ternopil Regional State Administration, Stepan Barna, is approved by 38% and disapproved by 35%, while 27% could not assess his performance. The head of the Ternopil Regional Council, Viktor Ovcharuk, is approved by 19%, disapproved by 27%, and 55% could not give an assessment.
Compared with October 2015, satisfaction with Nadal’s performance increased by 11 percentage points, and with Barna’s by 8 points. Meanwhile, positive assessments of Ovcharuk fell by 9 points, while the share of those unable to assess him almost tripled, indicating low public awareness of his activities.
Support for Governor Barna is highest among BPP supporters (66%) and lowest among Samopomich and Civic Position supporters (about one third). Ovcharuk also receives his highest approval among BPP supporters (34%) and the lowest among Samopomich and Civic Position voters (16–17%). Nadal, by contrast, enjoys very high approval across all party electorates.
The most trusted national politician in Ternopil is Nadiya Savchenko: 57% trust her, 36% do not. She is the only politician whose trust level exceeds distrust.
Oleh Tiahnybok is trusted by 44% and distrusted by 51%; Andriy Sadovyi by 35% vs 57%; Mikheil Saakashvili 34% vs 58%; Anatolii Hrytsenko 34% vs 54%; Yuliya Tymoshenko 30% vs 66%; Oleh Liashko 29% vs 66%; Andriy Parubiy 26% vs 67%; Petro Poroshenko 20% vs 77%; Volodymyr Groysman 17% vs 77%. Arseniy Yatsenyuk has the highest level of distrust among Ternopil residents.
Compared to October 2015, trust has increased for Tiahnybok (+15 pp), Tymoshenko (+13 pp), Liashko (+5 pp), and Yuriy Boyko (+4 pp). Trust has declined for Hrytsenko (−9 pp), Yatsenyuk (−10 pp), and Poroshenko (−14 pp). Trust in Sadovyi remained unchanged.
The leader of the presidential race in Ternopil is Yuliya Tymoshenko (17% among those who intend to vote), followed by Anatolii Hrytsenko (15%), Oleh Tiahnybok (11%), Oleh Liashko (8%), Petro Poroshenko (7%), Andriy Sadovyi (6%), Dmytro Yarosh (5%), and Arseniy Yatsenyuk (2%). 12% would vote for another candidate, and 18% are undecided. 45% say they would definitely participate in the election.
The leading party in Ternopil is Svoboda (18%), followed by Batkivshchyna (16%), Samopomich (10%), and BPP, Civic Position, and the Radical Party (8% each). Other parties score below 3%. 12% are undecided. 40% would definitely vote.
In the single-member constituency, the leaders are Stepan Barna and Volodymyr Staiura (12% each), followed by Vasyl Derevlyanyi (7%), Petro Landiak (6%), Volodymyr Blikhar (6%), Taras Pastukh (5%), and Roman Zastavnyi, Vasyl Lyl, and Mykhailo Ratushniak (4% each). 9% would vote for another candidate, and almost 30% are undecided.
The clear leader in the mayoral race is incumbent mayor Serhiy Nadal, supported by 67% of those who would vote. All other candidates score below 4%. 7% are undecided. Nearly 50% would definitely vote in mayoral and city council elections.
In elections to the city council, Svoboda leads with 26%, followed by Batkivshchyna (13%), Samopomich (7%), Radical Party (7%), BPP (5%), and Movement for Purification (4%). Other parties score below 3%. 16% are undecided.
Among local politicians, Serhiy Nadal has the highest positive rating: 70% view him positively, 11% negatively. Stepan Barna, Mykhailo Holovko, and Ihor Huda also have positive balances, although more than 40% of residents do not know Holovko and Huda. The most negative attitudes are toward Roman Zastavnyi and Oleksandr Muts, with 45% and 48% negative evaluations respectively.

Methodology