17.06.2020
Social and political sentiments of residents of Odesa
- The results of the survey conducted by Rating Group during the fieldwork dates of May 29 – June 2, 2020, among residents of Odesa demonstrated that city residents assess the local situation significantly better than the general situation in the country. Thus, only 29% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 59% hold the opposite view. At the same time, 49% assess the situation in the city as going in the right direction, while 41% assess it as going in the wrong direction.
- Residents of Odesa are more satisfied with the activities of local authorities than with those of the central government. Fifty-six percent of respondents are satisfied with the activities of the Mayor of Odesa, H. Trukhanov, while 31% are dissatisfied. Forty-four percent said they are satisfied with the work of President V. Zelenskyy, while 48% expressed the opposite assessments.
- Among local politicians, residents of Odesa have the most positive attitude toward H. Trukhanov: 60% positive, 28% negative, and 11% were unable to assess. Attitudes toward S. Kivalov are positive among 36%, negative among 41%, 10% do not know him, and 13% were unable to assess. Toward M. Saakashvili, 28% have a positive attitude, 51% a negative one, 17% were unable to assess, and only 5% do not know him. Toward M. Skoryk, 27% have a positive attitude, 23% a negative one, 38% do not know him, and 12% hesitated with their assessment. Toward S. Hrynevetskyi, 26% have a positive attitude, 17% a negative one, 43% do not know him, and 14% were unable to assess. Toward E. Hurvits, 25% have a positive attitude, 46% a negative one, 16% do not know him, and 14% hesitated with their assessment. Toward D. Spivak, 21% have a positive attitude, 13% a negative one, 54% do not know him, and 12% hesitated with their assessment. Toward A. Kivan, 17% have a positive attitude, 32% a negative one, 36% do not know him, and 15% were unable to assess at all. Toward A. Kisse, 13% have a positive attitude, 24% a negative one, 48% do not know him, and 14% hesitated with their assessment. More than 70% of respondents do not know other politicians.
- Among candidates for mayor, the leader in the rating is H. Trukhanov, who would be supported by 48.7% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Thirteen point seven percent would support M. Saakashvili, 8.5% S. Kivalov, 7.0% O. Leonov, 5.3% D. Spivak, 5.1% T. Plachkova, and 4.1% E. Hurvits. The ratings of other candidates are below 3%.
- Modeling of the second round of mayoral elections showed that if H. Trukhanov were to advance to the runoff against any of the other potential candidates, the incumbent mayor would win. In a pair with O. Leonov, the result would be 60% versus 18%; with T. Plachkova, 61% versus 14%; with M. Saakashvili, 59% versus 22%; and with D. Spivak, 57% versus 17%. At the same time, it should be taken into account that up to one quarter of respondents have not yet decided on their choice or do not want to participate in voting in the indicated runoff combinations.
- Fifty-nine percent of respondents believe that the new Odesa City Council should consist of experienced deputies and managers. At the same time, 23% want new faces to come to power. Demand for new faces is higher among younger and more affluent respondents.
- Fifty-two percent of respondents, when choosing a mayor, would rather support a candidate who proposes to solve the city’s current problems, while 33% are ready to vote for a candidate who would propose a development strategy for Odesa. The latter position is more common among affluent respondents. Fifty-seven percent expect a mayoral candidate primarily to take care of socially vulnerable groups, while 26% want support for business development. The latter demand is higher among respondents aged 30–49 and those with medium and high income.
- Fifty-six percent of respondents noted that they usually receive information about events in the city from online news websites. Forty-four percent receive information from television and the same share from social media. Twenty-six percent get information from groups and channels in messengers, and 20% from relatives and acquaintances. Only 11% receive information from newspapers and 9% from radio. Online resources and social media are used more often by respondents in younger and middle age groups, while television, newspapers, and radio are used more often by older respondents. At the same time, at least 40% of the latter read online news websites, and one quarter use social media.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Odesa aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender.
- Total sample: 1200 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 29 May - 2 June, 2020.
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