19.11.2014
Assessment of the situation in the East. Foreign policy orientations of the population
- According to a survey by the Rating Group, 36% of respondents believe it is necessary to cancel the ceasefire and complete the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) until full restoration of Ukrainian authority across the entire Donbas.
- 21% support granting broader economic and humanitarian powers to the region.
Another 17% support granting these territories autonomy or a federal status while keeping them within Ukraine.
Another 9% support separating these territories from Ukraine.
17% were undecided. - Compared to the October survey, support for cancelling the ceasefire and completing the ATO increased (from 22% to 36%), while the share of undecided respondents decreased (from 27% to 17%). Support for cancelling the ceasefire and completing the ATO is highest in Western Ukraine, while support for separating these territories from Ukraine is highest in the Donbas itself.
- 43% of respondents have a positive attitude toward signing a ceasefire with representatives of the so-called DPR and LPR, while about the same share (44%) have a negative attitude. 13% were undecided. Compared to October, support for signing the ceasefire decreased (from 53% to 43%), while opposition increased (from 33% to 44%).
- At the same time, a majority of respondents (71%) do not support the idea of separating territories controlled by the DPR and LPR from Ukraine. Meanwhile, about one in five supports separation, and one in ten is undecided.
- An absolute majority (74%) believe Ukraine should remain a unitary state, while 15% support a federal structure, and 11% are undecided.
- 64% of respondents support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, 17% support joining the Customs Union, and 19% are undecided.
- Since April 2014, support for EU accession has increased (from 55% in April to 64%), while support for the Customs Union has decreased (from 24% in April to 17%). EU accession is supported by a majority in the West, North, Center, East, and South of Ukraine. Only in the Donbas does a majority support joining the Customs Union.
- Almost half of respondents (48%) support abolishing Ukraine’s non-aligned status at the legislative level, while about one-third (28%) oppose it. Another quarter are undecided.
- If a referendum on Ukraine joining NATO were held today, about half of respondents (51%) would vote in favor, 25% would vote against, and about a quarter would be undecided or would not participate.
- Since April of that year, support for NATO accession has steadily increased. In November, the highest level of support was recorded (from 40% in April to 51%), while opposition decreased (from 46% in April to 25%). NATO accession is most strongly supported in Western, Northern, and Central Ukraine. In Eastern Ukraine, support and opposition are roughly equal, while in the South and Donbas there are more opponents.
Methodology
- Audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample: representative by age, gender, region, and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 2000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error: not more than 2.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: November 6–13, 2014.
