11.03.2019
Assessment of the election process: intentions and reasons for voting, trust and sympathies
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group in early March 2019, almost two thirds of respondents stated that they always take part in elections, while another 22% said that they almost always vote. Four percent of respondents indicated that they would be voting for the first time. Only 10% said that they almost never or never vote. The highest share of the latter group is among the youngest respondents and residents of Kyiv.
- A total of 83% of respondents, to one degree or another, declare their readiness to take part in the presidential election on March 31, 2019. Among supporters of all leading candidates, around 80% express readiness to vote. A relatively lower level of mobilization is observed among the youngest age groups (18–25 and 26–35 years) and in Kyiv.
- At the same time, when assessing the probability of their participation in voting on March 31, 2019 on a 10-point scale, only about two thirds expressed the highest level of confidence that they would come to vote. Relatively fewer such respondents are found among the youngest age group aged 18–25 (46%) and among those who are still undecided about their choice (64%). Among those who always vote in elections, more than 80% demonstrate the highest confidence. At the same time, among those who stated that they almost always participate in voting, this share is 42%, and among first-time voters it is 55%.
- Eighty-two percent of respondents stated that they know exactly where their polling station is located. A relatively lower level of awareness about the voting location is observed among younger respondents, residents of Kyiv and Donbas, those who will be voting for the first time, or those who vote very rarely.
- At the same time, only 18% of respondents have already checked whether their name is included in the voter lists.
- Forty-four percent of respondents stated that they usually vote in the morning, between 8 a.m. and 12 p.m. Another 22% usually vote between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m., 10% between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., and only 5% after 6 p.m. Morning voting is preferred mainly by the oldest voters, while younger people tend to prefer midday and afternoon hours. Regionally, a relatively higher share of those who vote in the morning is observed among residents of the southern and central regions as well as Donbas, while in Halychyna a relatively higher share vote between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. Among those who usually vote in elections, the majority do so in the morning, with the highest shares among voters of Yuliya Tymoshenko, Yuriy Boyko, and Oleh Lyashko.
- Only one third of respondents expressed readiness to stand in line at a polling station for more than one hour. At the same time, one third are willing to wait up to half an hour, and another one fifth up to one hour. The most “resilient” voters are in the East, North, and Halychyna, among the oldest respondents, and among voters of Oleksandr Vilkul and Yuriy Boyko. In contrast, supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Oleh Lyashko, and those who are undecided expressed the least willingness to stand in line for a long time to cast their vote.
- Seventy-four percent of respondents stated that they are ready to sacrifice leisure time in order to vote in elections. At the same time, 16% hold the opposite view and would rather spend time with friends and not go to vote if they had to choose only one option. The highest share of the latter group is among the youngest respondents (18–25 years – 34%, 26–35 years – 23%), first-time voters (30%), and those who rarely participate in elections (45%).
- Among the actors of the electoral process, international observers enjoy the highest level of trust (71%). Almost two thirds trust observers from civic organizations, law enforcement officers ensuring order at polling stations, members of precinct election commissions, and sociologists conducting exit polls. Observers from candidates are trusted by 58%, while the Central Election Commission is trusted by only 49% (38% do not trust it).
- Among presidential candidates, Volodymyr Zelenskyy enjoys a relatively higher level of trust (43%). High levels of trust are also recorded for Yuliya Tymoshenko (28%), Anatoliy Hrytsenko (26%), and Petro Poroshenko (24%). Oleh Lyashko is trusted by 19% of respondents, Yuriy Boyko by 18%, Andriy Sadovyi by 17%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 16%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 13%, Ihor Smeshko by 13%, Oleksandr Vilkul by 12%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 10%.
- At the same time, the highest levels of distrust are recorded for Petro Poroshenko (69%) and Oleh Lyashko (71%).
- The leader of the presidential rating is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, supported by 24.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Yuliya Tymoshenko ranks second (18.3%), and Petro Poroshenko third (16.8%). Anatoliy Hrytsenko would receive 10.3%, Yuriy Boyko 9.9%, Oleh Lyashko 5.7%, Ihor Smeshko 3.3%, and Oleksandr Vilkul and Yevhenii Muraiev 2.7% each.
- Over the past week, Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko have strengthened their positions.
- Almost one quarter of respondents remain undecided about their candidate choice. Notably, the highest share of undecided voters is among the poorest respondents, those who usually vote most actively in elections, respondents of older and middle age, and more often among women in the Center and the West of the country.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the strongest electoral positions in the south-eastern regions. In Kyiv and the Center, he competes with Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko. The latter has strong positions in Halychyna and the West. The leader of Batkivshchyna has strong positions in the central-western regions and in the North of the country. The highest level of support for Anatoliy Hrytsenko is recorded in Halychyna, and for Yuriy Boyko in the south-eastern regions, especially in Donbas.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the leader of sympathies among respondents who will be voting for the first time (almost every tenth voter of the candidate), as well as among those who do not often vote in elections. Meanwhile, among respondents who always vote, he shares first place with Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, while Hrytsenko and Boyko also have relatively stronger positions in this group.
- Twenty-two percent of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will become the next president. Twenty percent believe in the victory of Yuliya Tymoshenko, and 18% in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy and Tymoshenko show positive dynamics on this indicator, while Poroshenko’s figures have slightly weakened over the past week.
- Half of respondents stated that their choice is guided by faith that the candidate they support can bring changes to the country. One third choose their favorite because the candidate has a real program for the country’s development, while one quarter cite belief that the candidate will lead the country in the right direction or has experience in public administration. One in five votes because the candidate opposes the existing system.
- The motive of expecting change and protesting against the system is most strongly emphasized among Zelenskyy’s supporters. In contrast, a development program, a strong team, and leadership qualities most inspire voters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko. The latter’s voters also most often note that they choose their favorite due to experience in public administration; a similar motive is present among supporters of Tymoshenko, Hrytsenko, and Smeshko.
- Almost one in ten supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Zelenskyy choose their candidate because they believe the candidate has the highest chance of winning. At least one in ten supporters of Zelenskyy and Lyashko choose their candidate because the others are even worse. Personal sympathy for the candidate also motivates voters of Zelenskyy, Lyashko, and Muraiev.
- Almost three quarters of respondents believe that the main motive for voting for so-called “new faces” is the expectation of change in the country, while 18% are convinced that this phenomenon is driven by a desire for revenge against the so-called “old politicians” for what they have done to the country. This latter view finds relatively greater support among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, Anatoliy Hrytsenko, and Yuliya Tymoshenko.
- Interestingly, almost one in five respondents would like Sviatoslav Vakarchuk to have taken part in the presidential election. The highest share of such respondents is found among voters in Western Ukraine and Kyiv, as well as among supporters of Hrytsenko, Zelenskyy, and Poroshenko.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 5000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 1.5%.
- Fieldwork dates: March 1-7, 2019
.webp)
