“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Cherkasy Region

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13.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Cherkasy Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Cherkasy region from November 16 to December 7, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 18% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 49% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-seven percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 34% as critical. In the region, 61% see the situation as tense, while in their city 36% do so; only 5% consider the local situation to be critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (13%) and the region’s direction (15%) worse than that of their city or village (29%). Residents of rural settlements and the oldest respondents are more optimistic in their assessments of the situation in their locality.
Despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 19% believe that the situation in Ukraine will improve next year, 13% hold this view regarding the region, and 16% regarding their settlement. The overwhelming majority believe that the situation will not change. Between 11% and 15% think it will worsen. Younger respondents and residents of smaller settlements are more optimistic in their assessments.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (87%) and corruption in government (64%) are the two largest nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (64%), low income (61%), and inflation (55%). At the level of personal problems, socio-economic issues such as unemployment, inflation, high tariffs, and low income are felt more acutely in rural areas, while problems of corruption and social protection concern residents of the regional center somewhat more.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 20.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 12.6%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 12.1%, Petro Poroshenko by 9.4%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 5.9%, Ruslan Koshulynskyi by 5.8%, Oleh Liashko by 5.6%, Yurii Boiko by 4.2%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 4.1%, and Andrii Sadovyi by 2.7%. Other candidates have ratings below 2.5%. One in ten residents of the region has not decided on a candidate.
Twenty-one point three percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Nine percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (14% in 2017). About 6% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning, 4.5% Anatolii Hrytsenko, 3% Ruslan Koshulynskyi and Yurii Boiko each, and 2% Oleh Liashko. Fewer than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, Petro Poroshenko, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. More than 60% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.0% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 14.1%, Civic Position by 12.9%, European Solidarity by 8.8%, Svoboda by 6.0%, the Radical Party by 5.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 4.7%, and UKROP by 4.2%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, 11% of respondents have not decided on a party.
Orientation of a candidate toward solving the country’s problems (68%), personal leadership qualities (67%), socio-economic program (60%), and orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union (59%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, 30% also tend to focus on a politician’s ideological views rather than their program, 28% focus on the candidate’s strong team, and for 22% attention to their region is important. For 56%, experience in politics is important, while 40% state that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” matters more to them, which is especially relevant for younger voters and supporters of Ruslan Koshulynskyi, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 54% choose radical change, particularly supporters of Koshulynskyi, while 36% prefer stability.
Thirty-five percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while the same share believe that it will not change. Only 8% believe it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote expect significantly fewer positive changes.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the nationwide level (61%) is higher than at the regional level (42%) or in their city or village (28%). About one third also allow the possibility of minor falsifications. Twenty-one percent believe that there will be no fraud in their locality.
At the same time, 17% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-three percent take a neutral position, while 54% oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of villages and the poorest respondents are more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Eleven percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 13% with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 7% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration declined from 23% to 17%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads remained almost unchanged at 46–47%. Satisfaction with local leaders is significantly higher among rural residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption in Ukraine as a whole (52%) than in the region (35%) or their place of residence (21%). Thirty-seven percent believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at the central level, while 43–49% hold this view regarding their locality. Only 1–4% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. The situation in school education, life safety, and agricultural development is rated relatively better. In agriculture, approval dynamics over the year are the most positive. At the same time, assessments of school education, ecology, social protection, and the fight against corruption have declined, with the latter rated the worst.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of leisure and recreation the highest, and the ability to achieve success the lowest. Most opportunity areas, except leisure, are rated higher by wealthier respondents. Young people and rural residents rate leisure and safety higher, while younger respondents also rate opportunities for achieving success higher. Residents of the regional center rate job opportunities higher.
Only 2–3% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Between 20% and 30% assess this potential as medium. About 40–45% see low potential. Twelve to fourteen percent see no prospects for economic growth in Ukraine and the region at all, while 24% see none in their city or village. Residents of small towns assess growth potential for the country and region somewhat better.
Between 73% and 74% feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, residents of the region, and residents of their city or village. Older respondents feel pride slightly more often. The most common sources of regional pride are nature (48%) and history (44%). Culture and traditions are cited by 31% each, notable people of the region by 28%, landmarks and local residents by 18–19%, cuisine and culinary traditions by 13%, and sports achievements and natural resources by 10–11%.
About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 17% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in five among the older generation and one in three among the poorest respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kyiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus, somewhat less to Poland, and partially to Russia.
Twenty-seven percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 47% do not have such a desire and 18% are undecided. Eight percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of smaller towns and villages, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 28% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad decreased from 39% to 34%. Forty percent of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 30% are not. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (62%).
An absolute majority of respondents (85%) believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, and 4% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
Eighty-one percent consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite view, and 10% were unable to answer.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly decreased from 64% to 61%. Support for NATO accession has remained almost unchanged at 47–48%, while the number of opponents decreased from 24% to 20%. Among directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads with 50% (59% in 2017). Only 2% support accession to the Customs Union. Over time, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West increased from 20% to 33%.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 7, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Cherkasy region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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