26.12.2018
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS”: SUMMARY. Aggregated data, comparative analysis across oblasts
- Within the framework of the “PORTRAITS OF REGIONS” project, Rating Group conducted a survey of Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and over in all oblasts of Ukraine and in the city of Kyiv (excluding the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) from 16 November to 10 December 2018. In total, 40,000 respondents were interviewed using face-to-face interviews, with 1,600 respondents in each oblast. The sample is representative by type of settlement and by the age and gender structure of each oblast. The margin of error at the level of each individual oblast does not exceed 2.4%, and at the national level does not exceed 0.5%.
- The analysis of the survey results shows that residents assess the overall situation in the country significantly worse than the situation at the local level. Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, whereas 27% consider the situation in their oblast calm and 43% in their city or village. Nearly 58% of respondents describe the situation in the country as tense and 31% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat more positive: from 38% to 49% describe the situation as tense, and only 13–15% as critical.
- Across regions, there is no substantial difference in assessments of the political situation nationwide. The highest share of those who consider it critical is observed in most south-eastern regions as well as in Khmelnytskyi oblast. At the same time, assessments at the local level vary considerably by region. Relatively more respondents who view the political situation in their oblast as calm live in Ternopil and Lviv oblasts, while the fewest are in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson oblasts. Regarding the political situation in the place of residence, the highest share of calm assessments is found in Lviv and Ternopil oblasts, and the lowest in Kyiv, Kherson oblast, and Donbas.
- Respondents assess the direction of the country’s development worse than that of their oblast or their city or village. Only 14% believe the country is moving in the right direction, compared to 21% regarding their oblast and 29% regarding their settlement. Accordingly, 74% say the country is moving in the wrong direction, while this view is shared by 62% with regard to their oblast and by 55% with regard to their place of residence. The smallest share of those who believe the country is moving in the right direction is found in Odesa, Luhansk, Kherson, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts. At the oblast level, residents of Lviv and Kharkiv oblasts more often consider the direction of regional development correct, while this opinion is least common in Donbas and the South. As for the place of residence, the most positive assessments are recorded in Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, and Ternopil oblasts, and the most negative in Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts.
- Despite the generally negative assessments of the current situation, expectations among residents of Ukraine tend to be neutral or moderately positive. Between 16% and 18% express optimistic expectations for the future, both nationwide and locally. More than half believe the situation will remain unchanged, while between 17% and 20% expect deterioration in the coming year.
- The military conflict in eastern Ukraine and bribery and corruption in government are identified as the main nationwide problems. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, low wages and pensions, and inflation.
- In the presidential race, Yulia Tymoshenko leads the ratings, supported by 20.8% of respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. She is followed by Volodymyr Zelenskyi with 13.4%, Petro Poroshenko with 11.1%, Yurii Boiko with 9.6%, Anatolii Hrytsenko with 7.8%, Oleh Liashko with 6.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk with 4.6%, Yevhenii Muraiev with 4.5%, and Oleksandr Shevchenko with 4.2%. Support for other candidates does not exceed 3%. At the same time, nearly one third of respondents have not yet decided on a candidate or do not intend to vote in the elections.
- Yulia Tymoshenko leads in almost all oblasts of Ukraine, with the exception of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts, where Yurii Boiko occupies the first position. In Lviv oblast, she shares the lead with Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko; in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast with Oleksandr Shevchenko; and in Mykolaiv oblast with Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
- In the annual dynamics, a gradual increase in Yulia Tymoshenko’s rating has been observed since February of the reporting year. With his appearance in electoral ratings, Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s support also increased. The ratings of Petro Poroshenko, Yurii Boiko, and Oleh Liashko remained largely unchanged. Support for Anatolii Hrytsenko and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk declined, while Volodymyr Rabinovych experienced significant losses. At the same time, support for Andrii Sadovyi and Yevhenii Muraiev remained stable.
- Twenty-one percent of respondents believe that Yulia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election, and over the past year the share of those confident in her victory has doubled. Confidence in Petro Poroshenko’s victory stands at 12.8%, which is slightly lower than the previous year. About 5% expect Volodymyr Zelenskyi to win, 3.5% Yurii Boiko, 2.2% Oleh Liashko, and 2.1% Anatolii Hrytsenko. Fewer than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Yulia Tymoshenko leads in this indicator in all oblasts except Lviv oblast, where more respondents believe Petro Poroshenko will win. Confidence in their preferred candidate is most pronounced among supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
- Petro Poroshenko leads the negative rating. Among respondents who intend to vote, 50.3% state that they would not vote for him under any circumstances. He holds the first position in the negative rating in all regions except Lviv oblast, where Yurii Boiko ranks first.
- Modeling of the second round of the presidential election among all respondents shows that Yulia Tymoshenko convincingly defeats Petro Poroshenko and Yurii Boiko, and also has an advantage over Anatolii Hrytsenko, while her positions against Volodymyr Zelenskyi are nearly equal. Among those who intend to vote in the first round, Yulia Tymoshenko also leads in pairings with Petro Poroshenko and Yurii Boiko, has an advantage over Anatolii Hrytsenko, and a slight lead over Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
- At the regional level, Yulia Tymoshenko leads Petro Poroshenko in the second round in all regions without exception. In a pairing with Yurii Boiko, she loses in Donbas and Kharkiv oblast. In a pairing with Anatolii Hrytsenko, she loses in Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, and Cherkasy oblasts. Volodymyr Zelenskyi outperforms Yulia Tymoshenko in most regions of the East and South, while losing to her in most oblasts of Western and Central Ukraine.
- In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with 21.7% among respondents who have decided on their party choice and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 12.4%, BPP Solidarity by 9.6%, the Opposition Bloc by 9.5%, Civic Position by 7.8%, the Radical Party by 6.5%, UKROP by 4.6%, the party “Nashi” by 4.2%, and Samopomich by 4.0%. Support for other parties does not exceed 4%. More than one third of respondents have not decided on a party choice or do not intend to vote.
- Batkivshchyna leads in all oblasts except Donbas and Kharkiv oblast, where the Opposition Bloc ranks first. Over the year, support has increased for Batkivshchyna, “Servant of the People,” and UKROP. BPP Solidarity has slightly recovered its positions, while the ratings of the Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, and the Radical Party remained almost unchanged. Support for the parties “Za Zhyttia” and Samopomich declined.
- Orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union and a candidate’s socio-economic program are the most influential motives in presidential choice. About half of respondents also consider personal leadership qualities, focus on solving nationwide problems, political experience, and the ability to ensure stability. For a significant share, the ability to bring about change, belonging to a new generation of politicians, focus on regional issues, and the presence of a strong team are also important. Orientation toward closer cooperation with Russia is significant only for a minority of respondents and is more relevant in most south-eastern regions.
- Thirty-one percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-five percent believe the situation will not change, and only 15% expect deterioration. Positive expectations are most common among supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko, and least common among those who do not intend to vote or have not decided. The most optimistic expectations are recorded in Kirovohrad, Ternopil, Rivne, Volyn, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.
- Respondents believe that the likelihood of election fraud is higher at the national level than at the oblast or local level. About one third allow for minor fraud at all levels. Expectations of significant violations are highest in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, while regional-level fraud is more often expected in Vinnytsia and Odesa oblasts.
- A minority of respondents express a positive or neutral attitude toward material assistance from politicians during elections, while the majority oppose this practice. More tolerant attitudes are observed in Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, and Odesa oblasts, and the least tolerant in Ternopil oblast.
- The activities of central authorities are evaluated worse than those of local authorities. Satisfaction with the work of the Prime Minister, the President, and the Verkhovna Rada remains very low, while satisfaction with local heads is higher. Among oblast state administrations, relatively better evaluations are recorded for Kharkiv and Lviv, and the worst for Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Luhansk. Local heads receive the highest satisfaction ratings in Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Odesa oblasts, and the lowest in Kherson oblast.
- Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption at the national level than at the oblast or local level. Many believe the situation has not changed, while only a small share report a decrease in corruption. The worst assessments are recorded in Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Lviv oblasts, as well as in Kyiv.
- The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in most public services and sectors. Relatively better assessments are given to school education, road conditions, and personal safety, while healthcare, social protection, youth support, industrial development, and anti-corruption efforts receive the lowest evaluations. Over the year, satisfaction with road conditions increased in most regions, while assessments of school education and local anti-corruption efforts worsened.
- Opportunities for leisure and recreation are evaluated most positively, while opportunities for achieving success and running one’s own business are assessed most negatively. Economic development potential over the next 5–10 years is perceived as low by a significant share of respondents, with only a small minority seeing high potential. Zakarpattia receives the most positive evaluations, while Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Luhansk oblasts receive the most negative.
- Most respondents report feeling proud to be citizens of Ukraine, and even more feel proud of their oblast and their city or village. However, a substantial share of residents in several eastern and southern regions do not share this sense of pride. Nature and history are most often cited as sources of pride in one’s region, followed by traditions, culture, local residents, landmarks, and resources.
- Approximately 70% of respondents consider themselves happy, while about one fifth do not. Happiness is reported more often in western regions and less often in Sumy and Mykolaiv oblasts. One third express a desire to start their own business, while about half do not share this aspiration. Migration intentions have increased compared to the previous year, especially in western regions, although many of those planning to work abroad intend to invest their earnings in Ukraine.
- Most respondents support Ukrainian as the sole state language, while support for granting Russian any official status is higher in south-eastern regions. A majority consider Russia to be an aggressor toward Ukraine, although this view is less common in several eastern and southern oblasts. Support for EU and NATO integration prevails nationwide, with the pro-Western orientation strongest in the West and weakest in Odesa oblast and Donbas.
Methodology
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