“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Sumy Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Sumy Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Sumy region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 39% see the situation in the region as calm and 47% describe the situation in their own city or village as calm. Sixty-three percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 25% as critical. In the region, 42% see the situation as tense, while in their own city or village this figure is 35%, and only about 10% consider the local situation to be critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country at 14%, which is worse than assessments of their home region at 21% and their own city or village at 23%. Representatives of the older generation and residents of rural areas are somewhat more optimistic in these assessments.
Despite negative evaluations of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 15% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and locally will improve next year. The overwhelming majority think that the situation will not change, at 46–47%. At the same time, 22–23% believe that the situation will worsen.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74%, is considered the largest nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 58%, as well as low incomes and inflation, cited by 51% each. At the level of personal concerns, low income and high prices are less troubling for residents of small towns, while they are more acute for residents of the regional center and rural areas.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 23.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 10.3%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 10.0%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 9.7%, Yurii Boiko by 8.2%, Oleh Liashko by 6.9%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 5.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 3.5%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 3.0%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 22.1% of respondents have not decided on a candidate, and another 14.2% do not intend to participate in voting.
Seventeen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased somewhat. Eight percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 10% in 2017. About 4% consider a victory by Yurii Boiko to be likely, while 3% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi or Anatolii Hrytsenko as likely winners, and 2% see Oleh Liashko as such. Fewer than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-three percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna is the leader, supported by 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 10.1%, Civic Position by 9.5%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 7.9%, the Radical Party by 5.6%, and UKROP by 5.1%. Other parties have ratings of no more than 4%. At the same time, 20.2% have not decided on a party choice, and 17.2% do not intend to participate in elections.
When choosing motives for voting for presidential candidates, 53% take into account the candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, while 18% consider cooperation with Russia, which is more relevant for supporters of Yurii Boiko. For 53%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while for 31% the candidate’s team matters. A socio-economic program is a motive for 49%, while 34% pay more attention to the candidate’s ideological views. Forty-six percent believe it is important that the candidate be oriented toward solving the country’s problems, while for 35% attention to both the country and their region is important. For 48%, experience in politics is important, while 34% say that belonging to the group of “new politicians” matters more to them, especially among younger voters and supporters of Yevhenii Muraiev, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 36% choose radical change, while 45% prefer stability.
Twenty-six percent believe that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming elections, 24% think it will worsen, and 22% believe it will improve. Supporters of Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko most often expect positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
Forty-six percent of respondents consider electoral fraud at the national level to be likely, 39% consider it likely at the regional level, and 35% at the level of their city or village. Another approximately 35% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Twelve percent believe that there will definitely be no fraud in their settlement.
Fifteen percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-eight percent take a neutral position, while 53% oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of rural areas and the poorest respondents are more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities better than that of the central authorities. Only 8% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
Over the past year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged, at 21–22%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads has increased slightly from 26% to 29%. Satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher among rural residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption at the national level, cited by 41%, than in the region or at their place of residence, cited by 29–30%. Forty-six percent believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at the central level, while 53–55% hold the same view regarding their local area. Only 2–3% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Overall, relatively better evaluations are given to school education and the development of agriculture. In most sectors, negative dynamics or a lack of change are observed. Assessments of social protection and agricultural development have increased somewhat, while evaluations of ecology, healthcare, and the fight against corruption have declined noticeably. The latter area received the worst assessments.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest, and finding a job the lowest. Almost all areas of opportunity are rated higher by wealthier respondents and residents of the regional center. Younger respondents also give higher evaluations, with the exception of opportunities for entrepreneurship.
Only 6–9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 30% assess the potential as moderate. Between 42% and 44% see low potential, while 9–10% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, whether in Ukraine, the region, or their own settlement. Residents of small towns and younger respondents assess growth potential somewhat more positively.
Seventy-one percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 18% hold the opposite view. The same share, 71%, feel proud to be residents of their region, and 74% of their city or village. People of middle age feel pride somewhat less often. Most often, pride in the region is associated with nature, cited by 47%, and history, cited by 46%. Twenty-three percent are proud of local residents, 21% of local traditions, 18% of culture and art, and 15% of landmarks.
About 55% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 28% hold the opposite view. Feelings of personal happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents and residents of cities. At the same time, 33% of rural residents, 35% of older respondents, and 48% of the poorest respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Poltava and Kharkiv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Belarus, somewhat less to Russia, and partially to Poland.
About one third expressed a desire to start their own business, while more than half, 54%, do not have such a desire. Only 4% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 21% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 25% would choose trade, 15% construction and repairs, 11–12% logistics, entertainment, and beauty services, 10% auto service or IT, and slightly under 10% tourism, farming, and real estate.
Over the past year, the share of respondents wishing to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 38–39%, while the number of those who do not want to do so increased slightly from 52% to 56%. Forty-six percent of those wishing to emigrate are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 35% are not. Migration aspirations are highest among youth, at 69%, wealthier respondents, at 46–51%, and residents of the regional center, at 42%.
About 60% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twenty-two percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 10% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
Sixty percent consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, 22% hold the opposite view, and 18% were unable to answer.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased over the year from 50% to 55%, as did support for NATO membership, from 37% to 45%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 47%, accession to the Customs Union is supported by 9%, and 24% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from both Russia and the West.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 9, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Sumy region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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