“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ternopil Region

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17.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ternopil Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Ternopil region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 9% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 45% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 62% in their own city or village. Almost 61% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 22% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the state of affairs are somewhat better: between 25% and 40% of respondents view the situation as tense, and only about 5% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development worse, at 18%, than that of the region, at 31%, or their own city or village, at 38%. Residents of small towns in the region assess the direction of development of both the country and their local area less critically.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will worsen next year. More than half of respondents believe that it will not change, and almost one quarter have optimistic expectations about the future. A higher level of positive expectations is observed among residents of cities in the region.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 78%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 49%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 61%, low wages and pensions, cited by 57%, and rising prices and inflation, cited by 55%.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 21.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Fifteen point seven percent would vote for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 12.6% for Petro Poroshenko, 10.9% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 7.7% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 6.8% for Oleh Liashko, 5.5% for Oleksandr Shevchenko, 4.3% for Andrii Sadovyi, and 3.0% for Ruslan Koshulynskyi. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
About 20% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections, compared to 13% in 2017. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, compared to 17% in 2017. About 4% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Nearly 33% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 23.7% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Fifteen point seven percent are ready to vote for Civic Position, 11.9% for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 10.5% for Svoboda, 9.3% for the Servant of the People party, 6.2% for UKROP, 6.1% for Samopomich, and 5.4% for the Radical Party. The rating of other parties is below 4%. At the same time, nearly one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of the candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 83%, and the candidate’s personal leadership qualities, cited by 65%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 40% stated that ensuring stability is more important to them. Fifty-six percent choose a candidate rather because of their experience in state politics, while for 40% it is more important that the candidate belongs to the generation of “new” politicians. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, Oleksandr Shevchenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi. For 51%, the socio-economic program of the candidate is important, while 42% stated that ideological views matter more to them. Orientation toward solving the country’s problems is a motive for choice for 55% of respondents, while for 36% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems.
Forty-three percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Twenty-eight percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 9% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleh Liashko more often expect positive changes than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 36%, is higher than at the local level, at 9%. Another approximately 40–55% allow for minor falsifications.
Only 7% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Fourteen percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 70% oppose this type of campaigning.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Sixteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 11% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 4% with the activity of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has slightly decreased, from 26% to 22%. Forty-six percent stated that they are satisfied with the activity of the city or village head. The level of dissatisfaction with local heads among rural residents is lower than among residents of cities in the region.
Respondents more often see an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. Forty to fifty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–7% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. At the same time, in year-on-year dynamics, assessments for most criteria have either improved or remained unchanged. The best dynamics are observed in ecology, road conditions, and agriculture. Respondents rate the situation in school education, safety, and ecology relatively better. The worst assessments concern industrial development, youth support, and social protection.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to relax and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, and finding work are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center and small towns, while living safely is rated higher in villages.
Respondents rate the economic development potential of Ukraine, at 17%, higher than that of the region, at 10%, and their own city or village, at 9%, over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the economic potential of the country and localities at a medium level. About one quarter see low potential. Three to four percent see no opportunities for economic growth in Ukraine and the region. Twelve percent see no growth potential for their settlement, most often in small towns and villages.
The overwhelming majority of respondents, at 78%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy-nine percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and 82% of their city or village. Older respondents demonstrate a somewhat higher level of pride. Most often, respondents cited nature, at 45%, regional traditions, at 43%, and history, at 42%, as objects of pride. Thirty-one percent are proud of culture and art, 25% of local residents, 16% of landmarks, 15% of natural resources, 13% of prominent figures of the region, and 10% of cuisine and culinary traditions.
Seventy-three percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 15% hold the opposite view. Residents of cities, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every sixth rural resident and every fifth representative of the older generation considers themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and, to a lesser extent, Belarus.
Thirty-two percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Four percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among city residents, younger, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, nearly one quarter stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 34% would like to engage in trade, 15% in farming, 13% in construction and repair, and 11% in car service.
Over the past year, the number of those expressing a desire to work abroad has slightly decreased, from 45% to 42%. At the same time, 50% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Traditionally, a higher level of migration intentions is observed among youth, at 65%.
An absolute majority, at 95%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Only 3% support granting the Russian language any official status.
An absolute majority of respondents, at 92%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 2% hold the opposite view.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly increased, from 77% to 83%. Seventy percent continue to support accession to NATO. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 73%, while 14% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Ternopil region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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