“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Vinnytsia Region

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17.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Vinnytsia Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Vinnytsia region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 35% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 49% in their own city or village. Nearly 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 32% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: from 39% to 47% view it as tense, and only 7–11% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development worse, at 11%, than that of the region, at 21%, or their own city or village, at 26%. Residents of the regional center assess the situation more positively both in the country and locally, especially in their own city.
Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Fifteen to sixteen percent have optimistic expectations for the future, both in Ukraine and locally. More than half believe that the situation will not change, while about 16% expect deterioration next year. Residents of villages and smaller towns hold more optimistic views on this issue.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 78%, is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. Thirty-seven percent also consider bribery and corruption in government to be a problem. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 57%, rising utility tariffs, cited by 51%, and inflation, cited by 45%. At the personal level, lack of access to medical care and unemployment are felt more acutely in smaller settlements, while tariffs and low incomes are more pressing in the regional center. Among national-level problems, residents of the large city are more concerned about political issues.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 23.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Eighteen point five percent are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko, 11.4% for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 9.5% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 7.2% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 6.9% for Oleh Liashko, and 5.8% for Yurii Boiko. The rating of other candidates is below 5%. At the same time, every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
About 22% believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has more than doubled. Fifteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is slightly lower than the previous year’s figure of 18%. About 3.5% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-three point four percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 26% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Seventeen point eight percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 11.0% for Civic Position, 8.3% for the Servant of the People party, 7.7% for the Radical Party, 5.5% for Samopomich, and 5.3% for the Opposition Bloc. The rating of other parties is below 3%. One quarter of respondents have not decided on a party choice.
About half of respondents, when making a presidential choice, are guided by the candidate’s personal leadership qualities, cited by 52%, socio-economic program, cited by 51%, political experience, cited by 49%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU, cited by 48%, and the ability to ensure stability in the country, cited by 47%. At the same time, for about 35%, the candidate’s team, ideological views, ability to ensure radical changes in the country, and focus on regional problems are important. Another 39% are guided in their choice by the candidate’s belonging to the generation of “new” politicians; this motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. Although 48% support European integration, when asked about foreign policy sympathies more than one third could not give an answer, while another 17% supported a pro-Russian orientation of the candidate, most often among voters of Yurii Boiko.
Thirty-six percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 10% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko more often expect positive changes than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 59%, is slightly higher than in the region, at 54%, or in their city or village, at 51%. Another approximately 22% allow for minor falsifications.
Only 11% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twelve percent take a neutral position on this issue, while the majority, 74%, oppose this type of campaigning. City residents and respondents with lower income are more favorable toward such assistance. People of middle age assess such campaigning more critically.
Residents of the region assess the performance of central authorities differently. Thirty percent are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, while 64% are dissatisfied; the most positive assessments of his work come from residents of Vinnytsia. The activity of Petro Poroshenko was positively assessed by 15%, while 78% are dissatisfied, and only 4% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, while 80% are dissatisfied. The level of satisfaction with local leaders is higher than with regional authorities: 23% are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration, which is 4 percentage points lower than last year, while 45% are satisfied with the work of local heads. Residents of Vinnytsia assess the activity of local authorities more positively.
Respondents more often see an increase in corruption nationwide, at 52%, than in the region, at 42%, or at their place of residence, at 35%. About 40–50% of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 2–5% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. The best assessments concern road conditions, personal safety, school education, and ecology. In year-on-year dynamics, the situation regarding road conditions has improved. The greatest deterioration is observed in ecology, the fight against corruption, and youth support. Other spheres have remained largely unchanged. Respondents speak most negatively about the fight against bribery at the local level and about youth support.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the opportunities for recreation and leisure the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. The level of all opportunities is rated highest in Vinnytsia. Younger and wealthier respondents rate the level of all opportunities higher than older and poorer respondents.
Five to seven percent see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess it as moderate. Another 33–34% see low potential, and 11–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine or locally. Residents of the regional center assess the development potential of their settlement somewhat better, while residents of villages assess the potential of the country and region more positively. The youngest respondents are the most optimistic in their assessments.
The majority of respondents, at 77%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Even more feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village, at 83% each. Most often, respondents cited the history and nature of their region as objects of pride, at 43–44%. Thirty-five percent are proud of regional culture, 30% of traditions, 22% of landmarks, and 17% each of natural resources and residents of the region.
More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 23% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. Nearly one third of the older generation consider themselves unhappy. Among the poorest respondents, nearly half consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr regions. Among neighboring countries, residents most often chose Belarus and Poland as close, and somewhat less often Russia.
Almost 30% expressed a desire to start their own business. Five percent stated that they are already entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, 60% said they do not have such aspirations. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among younger respondents, wealthier individuals, city residents, and those with a middle income level. Among those wishing to start their own business, 30% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, and about 9–10% in businesses related to entertainment and leisure or the beauty and health industry.
Over the past year, the number of those who expressed a desire to work abroad has slightly increased, from 33% to 37%. At the same time, 55% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 31% are not ready. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 62%, and wealthier respondents, at 51%.
Seventy-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twelve percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 8% support granting Russian state language status.
The majority of respondents, at 71%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 18% hold the opposite view and 11% have not decided.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly increased, from 59% to 62%. Support for accession to NATO has remained almost unchanged, at 48–47%, while the number of those opposed has slightly decreased, from 30% to 26%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 58%, compared to 53% in 2017. Support for Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has decreased year-on-year, from 37% to 27%. Only 3% support Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Vinnytsia region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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