07.08.2012
Threat rating: July 2012
- According to a survey conducted in July 2012, the five most serious threats facing the country are rising unemployment, mentioned by 44% of respondents, economic decline at 41%, abuse of power by the authorities at 25%, social degradation at 20%, and deterioration of medical care, also at 20%. These are followed by environmental disasters at 17%, rising crime at 16%, devaluation of the hryvnia at 15%, a potential split of the country at 13%, possible loss of independence at 11%, and mass migration of Ukrainians abroad at 10%. Fewer than one in ten respondents see threats such as a decline in education, a demographic crisis, an unconstitutional coup, the risk of civil war, or loss of control over Ukraine’s gas transit system. Only about 3% perceive a military threat from Russia or terrorism, and just 1% fear a military threat from the West. Only 3% of Ukrainians say they do not feel any of the listed threats at all.
- Compared with the previous survey conducted in March 2011, concerns about economic risks have declined noticeably. The share of those who see economic decline as a threat has fallen from 53% to 41% across all regions, while fears of unemployment have also decreased slightly from 47% to 44%, although they have risen in the Center and in Donbas. Concerns about devaluation of the hryvnia have dropped from 23% to 15% in all regions except the West. At the same time, anxiety about deteriorating medical services has increased from 15% to 20%, especially in the Center, South and Donbas. Worries about environmental disasters, rising crime, abuse of power, and social degradation have also grown. Over the past year, fears of a possible split of the country have increased by about one and a half times, rising from 9% to 13%, with particularly sharp growth both in the West and in the East. Concerns about the possible loss of independence have also risen, especially in both Western and Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, fears of civil war have declined, while concerns about an unconstitutional coup have increased.
- Political affiliations also shape perceptions of threats. Supporters of Ukraine – Forward! and undecided voters are most worried about unemployment, while voters of Batkivshchyna and the Communist Party are most concerned about economic decline. Abuse of power worries supporters of Batkivshchyna and Svoboda, social degradation concerns Svoboda and Communist Party voters, and deterioration of medical services worries supporters of the Party of Regions and Ukraine – Forward!. Environmental disasters are most often cited by Party of Regions voters, while devaluation of the hryvnia and mass migration abroad are key concerns among UDAR supporters. Every third supporter of Svoboda believes Ukraine faces the threat of losing independence, every sixth sees a risk of civil war or an unconstitutional coup, and one in ten perceives a military threat from Russia. Terrorism is most often mentioned by supporters of Ukraine – Forward!, while one in ten supporters of the Party of Regions believes that Ukraine faces no threats at all.
Methodology
- Survey organization: Rating Group.
- Survey population: adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 2.2% for values close to 50%, no more than 2.0% for values close to 30%, no more than 1.3% for values close to 10%, and no more than 1.0% for values close to 5%.
- Fieldwork dates: 14–27 July 2012.
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk.
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