05.03.2013
Ratings of parties in the elections of the Verkhovna Rada: February 2013
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, if parliamentary elections in Ukraine had been held at the end of February 2013, about two thirds of voters would have participated.
- The highest level of mobilization was recorded in Western Ukraine, while the lowest was in Donbas and the South of the country, where only about half of voters confirmed their intention to participate.
- If parliamentary elections had been held at the end of February 2013, the Party of Regions would have won. Among those who intended to vote, 24.9% would have voted for the Party of Regions, 19.3% for Batkivshchyna, 18.1% for UDAR, 11.9% for Svoboda, and 8.7% for the Communist Party. Another 1.2% would have supported Nataliia Korolevska’s party Ukraine – Forward!, while less than 1% would have supported the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko and Our Ukraine. The remaining parties would have received 2.7%, while 11.8% would have remained undecided.
- For a more accurate comparison with election results, undecided voters were redistributed. After redistribution, if elections had been held at the end of February 2013, 28.2% would have voted for the Party of Regions, 22% for Batkivshchyna, 20.4% for UDAR, 13.5% for Svoboda, and 10% for the Communist Party. Other parties would have received about 6%.
- Compared to the parliamentary election results, the following trends are observed. Combined support for opposition parties (Batkivshchyna, UDAR, and Svoboda) increased from 50% to 56%, while combined support for parties forming the parliamentary majority (Party of Regions and Communist Party) decreased from 43% to 38%. New parliamentary parties (UDAR and Svoboda) gained support, while established parties (Batkivshchyna, Party of Regions, and the Communist Party) lost support. The Party of Regions remained the clear leader among voters in Donbas, the South, and the East. Batkivshchyna shared first place in Western Ukraine with Svoboda and UDAR, and in the Center and North with UDAR.
- UDAR continued to be supported mainly by younger voters, while the Communist Party was supported mainly by older voters. The most educated electorate was observed among supporters of Svoboda and UDAR, while the least educated electorate was among Communist Party supporters. The electorates of Svoboda and UDAR also had the highest share of employed voters, while the Communist Party electorate was dominated by pensioners. Batkivshchyna had higher support in rural areas, while the Party of Regions and the Communist Party had stronger support in cities. As in previous elections, UDAR and Svoboda were more supported by men, while Batkivshchyna, the Party of Regions, and the Communist Party were more supported by women.
- Supporters of Svoboda and Batkivshchyna were predominantly Ukrainian-speaking. Over the previous six months, the share of Ukrainian-speaking voters in the Svoboda electorate decreased from 75% to 68%, while the share of those speaking both Ukrainian and Russian or primarily Russian increased. Among supporters of the Communist Party and the Party of Regions, more than half were Russian-speaking, about one quarter spoke both languages at home, and another quarter spoke Ukrainian. Among UDAR supporters, about half spoke Ukrainian at home and half spoke Russian or both languages. Among undecided voters, Russian-speaking respondents were more common, which is consistent with the fact that the highest share of undecided voters was recorded in the South, East, and Donbas.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: February 22 – February 28, 2013
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