According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if the Presidential elections in Ukraine had taken place at the end of February 2013, about 70% of voters would have participated.

In particular, among those who intended to vote:

• 25.1% would support Viktor Yanukovych
• 15.1% – Vitalii Klitschko
• 13.9% – Yulia Tymoshenko
• 7.9% – Oleh Tyahnybok
• 7.7% – Petro Symonenko
• 7.4% – Arsenii Yatseniuk

Support for other politicians was significantly lower:

• 1.7% – Anatolii Hrytsenko
• 1.5% – Serhii Tihipko
• 1.2% – Petro Poroshenko
• 1.1% – Nataliia Korolevska
• Other politicians – 4%
• Undecided – 11.1%
• “Against all” – 2.3%

If Yulia Tymoshenko did not participate in the election, the top three would look as follows:

• Viktor Yanukovych – 25.1%
• Vitalii Klitschko – 16.8%
• Arsenii Yatseniuk – 15.1%

Additionally:

• 8.9% would support Oleh Tyahnybok
• 7.7% – Petro Symonenko
• 2.2% – Anatolii Hrytsenko
• 1.7% – Serhii Tihipko
• 1.4% – Petro Poroshenko
• 1.4% – Nataliia Korolevska
• Other politicians – over 4%
• Undecided – 12.6%
• “Against all” – 2.3%

If Tymoshenko did not run, nearly 60% of her voters would support Yatseniuk in the first round, about 10% would support Klitschko, about 10% Tyahnybok, and about one sixth would be undecided or vote “against all”.

Thus, if Presidential elections had taken place at the end of February 2013, Yanukovych would likely face Klitschko or Yatseniuk (or Tymoshenko) in the second round.

Since opposition forces collectively had higher overall support, Yanukovych risked losing the second round to almost any opposition leader represented in parliament. Klitschko had the strongest chances at that moment, followed by Yatseniuk and Tymoshenko, with slightly lower chances for Tyahnybok.

Second-round scenarios:

Yanukovych vs Klitschko:

• Yanukovych – 30.2%
• Klitschko – 49%
• Against both – 11.6%
• Undecided – 9.2%

Yanukovych vs Yatseniuk:

• Yanukovych – 33%
• Yatseniuk – 40%
• Against both – 18.4%
• Undecided – 8.6%

Yanukovych vs Tymoshenko:

• Yanukovych – 33.2%
• Tymoshenko – 36.4%
• Against both – 22.4%
• Undecided – 8%

Yanukovych vs Tyahnybok:

• Yanukovych – 33.5%
• Tyahnybok – 32.3%
• Against both – 23.4%
• Undecided – 10.8%

Over the year, second-round ratings increased notably for Klitschko (from 37% to 49%) and Tyahnybok (from 24% to 32%). Yatseniuk also increased (from 38% to 40%). The incumbent President also increased slightly, but less significantly.

Although Yatseniuk trailed Tymoshenko in first-round ratings, he attracted broader second-round support. Klitschko voters were less likely to support Yatseniuk or Tymoshenko in the second round than vice versa. Yatseniuk voters were also less likely to support Tyahnybok or Tymoshenko. However, if Yatseniuk reached the second round, he would receive support from nearly 90% of Tymoshenko voters, 75% of Klitschko voters, and 60% of Tyahnybok voters.

Supporters of Symonenko and Tihipko were more likely to vote for Yanukovych, while supporters of Hrytsenko and Poroshenko were more likely to vote against him.

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