16.05.2019
Ukraine today: challenges and prospects
- The Social Monitoring Center, the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, and the Rating Group conducted a nationwide sociological study on current public issues titled “Your Opinion: May 2019.” The survey was carried out from April 30 to May 10, 2019, in all 24 regions of Ukraine and the city of Kyiv. A total of 3,000 respondents were interviewed. The method of data collection was face-to-face individual interviews at the respondent’s place of residence: 1,500 interviews using paper questionnaires and 1,500 using tablet-based questionnaires. Standard errors at a 95% confidence level and variable ratios from 0.1:0.9 to 0.5:0.5 range between 1.10% and 1.83%.
- According to the survey results, 11.5% of respondents did not participate at all in voting during the 2019 presidential elections, while 4.6% refused to answer this question. In total, nearly 84% of respondents reported that they took part in voting in at least one round of the 2019 presidential elections. Participation in the first round on March 31, 2019, was confirmed by 78.9% of respondents, and the same share reported voting in the second round on April 21, 2019. Voting in both rounds was reported by 74% of respondents. Around 5% voted only on March 31, while 4.9% voted only on April 21.
- Self-reported levels of support for candidates in the presidential elections on March 31 and April 21 are close to the official results of the Central Election Commission, with the exception of a higher-than-official level of support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the first round. Support for him was reported by 31.5% of all respondents, or 39.9% among those who confirmed participation in voting on March 31, 2019.
- When asked about hypothetical parliamentary elections held the following Sunday, 79.2% said they would vote, including 49.3% who would definitely participate and 29.9% who would probably participate. Residents of regional centers reported higher readiness to vote, while rural residents showed lower readiness. Men and young voters aged 18–29 expressed below-average intentions to participate. Those who did not vote in the presidential elections are the least likely to vote in parliamentary elections, with fewer than one third of them expressing any readiness to participate.
- Among voters, party support in the first half of May 2019 is as follows. “Servant of the People” (Volodymyr Zelenskyy) is supported by 29.5% of all respondents, or 39.9% among those who have decided and intend to vote. “Opposition Platform – For Life” (Yuriy Boyko, Vadym Rabinovych, Viktor Medvedchuk) is supported by 8.1% (10.9%), “Petro Poroshenko Bloc ‘Solidarity’” by 7.8% (10.6%), “Batkivshchyna” by 6.7% (9.1%), “Strength and Honor” by 3.8% (5.1%), “Civic Position” by 3.7% (5.0%), “Opposition Bloc – Party of Peace and Development” by 2.6% (3.5%), the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko by 2.4% (3.3%), “Svoboda” by 1.8% (2.4%), “Samopomich” by 1.5% (2.0%), and the party of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 0.7% (0.9%). Six political parties cross the 5% electoral threshold.
- If parliamentary elections were held at that time, the results would indicate significant renewal. Among current parliamentary parties, only the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” “Batkivshchyna,” and “Opposition Platform – For Life” would enter the new parliament. New or relatively unfamiliar political forces with strong chances include “Servant of the People,” “Strength and Honor,” and “Civic Position.” The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko and “Samopomich” would not overcome the 5% threshold. The party with the highest anti-rating is the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” with 43.9% stating they would never vote for it.
- Proposed projects of political party unification tested by researchers are currently unattractive to the electorate. After the presidential elections, public opinion demonstrates a high level of optimism: 49.7% expect improvements in Ukraine in the coming months, 20.9% expect deterioration, and nearly 30% are uncertain.
- Less than a quarter of voters (22.3%) give the newly elected President no more than 100 days to demonstrate effectiveness, another 26.2% give six months, and 35.5% give one year. Overall, more than 80% of voters say they will form a final judgment of the President within one year based on actions and results.
- One of the key expectations and disappointments of the Revolution of Dignity was a change in the system of power. Accordingly, the most frequently cited first step expected from the President is the removal of immunity from MPs, judges, and the President himself, mentioned by 53.7% of respondents. Issues related to resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine ranked second and third, including initiating direct negotiations in the “Ukraine–Russia–so-called DPR–so-called LPR” format to stop the fighting and return Donbas (40.9%), and ensuring the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war and detainees (38.4%). Dissolving the current parliament and holding early parliamentary elections was named by 38.1%.
- About one third (33.7%) emphasized the need to ensure stability of the national currency and banking system. Lowering salaries of top officials was supported by 30.6%. Accelerating investigations into major corruption cases was mentioned by 25.8%, while 25.4% supported initiating a public discussion on the immediate replacement of the Prosecutor General, the head of the Security Service, the Prime Minister, and the current Cabinet.
- The range of perceived challenges is broad. More than half consider the following issues very important: a ceasefire in Donbas (88.4%), return of Ukrainian POWs and detainees (84.3%), current prices and inflation (84.5%), wages and pensions (82.8%), utility tariffs (84.5%), the armed conflict in the East and reintegration of Donbas (80.2%), social protection (76.4%), healthcare quality (76.1%), employment and unemployment (75.7%), enrichment of oligarchs and impoverishment of ordinary people (74.4%), corruption and cronyism (73.7%), tax burden (65.9%), crime and street safety (61.4%), labor migration and demographic changes (60.9%), and the return of Crimea (53.9%).
- Regarding the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and Free Trade Area, 23.7% noted a positive impact on Ukraine’s economic situation, 25.9% saw both positive and negative effects, 12.3% indicated a negative impact, 20% saw no impact, and 18.2% were undecided. If a referendum were held, 57% would vote for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, 19.3% for restoring pragmatic economic relations with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other CIS countries, 13.6% would not participate, and 10.1% were undecided.
- Asked about Ukraine’s future path, 43.1% favor European integration and closer economic and cultural ties with EU countries, 37.8% support a development strategy focused primarily on internal resources, and 12.3% favor restoring economic and cultural ties with Russia. In a hypothetical referendum on NATO membership versus non-aligned status, 48.9% would vote for NATO membership, 23.2% for non-alignment, 16% would not participate, and 11.8% were undecided.
- Attitudes toward most well-known politicians are predominantly negative. Exceptions include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with 64.6% positive and 13.9% negative attitudes; Anatolii Hrytsenko (33.5% positive, 26.9% negative); Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (31.0% positive, 24.1% negative); and Ihor Smeshko (28.6% positive, 17.4% negative, with 26.2% not knowing him). The top five politicians voters would like to see in the next parliament are Anatolii Hrytsenko (29.3%), Yuriy Boyko (26.7%), Ihor Smeshko (23.6%), Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (22.4%), and Yuliia Tymoshenko (21.1%).
- The ten politicians whose public actions over the past month were most memorable to voters are Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, Oleh Liashko, Yuriy Boyko, Anatolii Hrytsenko, Volodymyr Groysman, Vadym Rabinovych, Oleksandr Vilkul, Nadiia Savchenko, and Viktor Medvedchuk.
- Nearly half of respondents (49.2%) believe that the issue of the status of the non-government-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions should be decided by a nationwide referendum. A majority (65.3%) agree that Ukraine should make compromises for the sake of restoring peace and returning territories. Three quarters believe the President should engage in direct dialogue with Russia to achieve peace, while 55.4% also support dialogue with the leaders of the so-called “L/DNR.” The most supported solution for the non-controlled territories is granting them a special autonomous status within Ukraine (39.9%), followed by acknowledging temporary non-return and isolating them (18.5%), and continuing military actions to restore control (17.3%), the latter being most supported in western Ukraine.
- Language policy and restrictions on Russian media products remain sources of regional division. Among Ukrainian TV channels, the most trusted are STB, 1+1, Ukraine, ICTV, Inter, Novyi Kanal, 112, and TET. The main TV sources of socio-political information are 1+1, Ukraine, ICTV, Inter, 112, STB, and Novyi Kanal.
- Attitudes toward May 9 remain largely traditional, with 83% recognizing it as an important holiday. A majority (56.8%) believe its importance has increased, although in western Ukraine 44% reported a decrease in its significance. Nearly 70% do not support moving the celebration to May 8.
Methodology
.webp)
