26.06.2018
Waiting for the presidential elections: moods of Ukrainians
- According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, 76% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, 13% express the opposite view, and 11% are undecided. Residents of the central and western regions express relatively less pessimism, while the highest level of criticism is observed in the South.
- Only 8% of respondents report an improvement in the economic situation of their families over the past six months. By contrast, 60% say it has worsened, and another 30% report no change. The highest share of those who see a deterioration in their personal financial situation is in the South (74%), and the lowest in the West (40%). The older the respondents, the more often they report a worsening of their own economic situation.
- The war in eastern Ukraine remains the most important national problem in the eyes of citizens (78%). Bribery and corruption as nationwide problems are mentioned by 55% of respondents, and unemployment by 29%. Low wages and pensions, insufficient social protection, social inequality, and rising prices for basic goods as country-level problems concern between 16% and 18% of respondents.
- At the same time, the ranking of personal problems is led by socio-economic issues: rising prices and tariffs, as well as low wages and pensions, personally concern more than half of respondents. The war in the East, low quality of medical services, and lack of work are personal problems for one in five respondents. Insufficient social protection, bribery and corruption in government are considered problems by 15–16% of respondents, and social inequality by 10%. Other issues personally concern no more than 10%.
- Two thirds of respondents clearly place responsibility for the difficult situation currently facing Ukraine on former President Viktor Yanukovych. Fifty-three percent hold the same view regarding Petro Poroshenko, 51% regarding former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, and 40% regarding the current Head of Government Volodymyr Groysman. Russia is unequivocally considered responsible for the situation in Ukraine by 52% of respondents, and the United States by 21%. Opinions on the responsibility of the Ukrainian people as a whole are divided: 9% clearly consider the people responsible, while 24% see no fault at all. Regionally, responsibility for Yanukovych, Azarov, and Russia is assessed relatively higher in western regions, while responsibility for Poroshenko and the United States is assessed higher in the East.
- Among reforms, citizens are most critical of anti-corruption efforts and healthcare reform. Nearly 80% are dissatisfied with the fight against bribery, while 5% are satisfied; dissatisfaction with healthcare reform stands at 75%, with 10% satisfied. Sixty-one percent are dissatisfied with police reform, while 21% are satisfied; dissatisfaction with judicial reform is 56%, with only 5% satisfied; dissatisfaction with education reform is 50%, with 13% satisfied; and dissatisfaction with decentralization is 36%, with 27% satisfied. Most reforms are perceived relatively more positively in western regions. Younger respondents tend to view government initiatives more positively than the oldest respondents.
- Ending hostilities in the East is the dominant demand citizens place on the next President of Ukraine (63%). Strengthening the fight against corruption is expected by 49% of respondents, industrial revival by 40%, and raising social standards by 30%. Improvements in healthcare quality, reducing the influence of oligarchs on politics, reviving the agricultural sector, strengthening national defense, and stimulating business development are expected by 11% to 19%. Improving Ukraine’s international image, reforming education and science, and protecting the Ukrainian language and culture are mentioned by 4% to 8% of respondents.
- Two thirds believe that the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine will be dishonest. Only 12% are convinced they will be conducted fairly, while 22% are unable to answer.
- Sixty-four percent believe that presidential candidates on whose behalf material assistance is distributed to voters during elections (food packages, funds for repairs, assistance for medical treatment, etc.) should be strictly punished. Twenty-three percent hold the opposite view. A relatively higher tolerance for vote-buying is observed among respondents in the South, where one third believe such practices should not be punished. Support for distributing assistance is also relatively higher among the oldest respondents.
- Politicians’ appearances in the media are the main source from which citizens learn about presidential candidates’ programs (70%). Thirty-five percent obtain such information from relatives and acquaintances, 27% from political advertising in the media, 22% from leaflets and brochures distributed during campaigns, 19% from news websites, 17% from social networks, 16% from outdoor advertising, 13% from articles in print media, 9% from politicians’ official websites, and 8% from speeches at rallies and meetings with voters. At the same time, only 14% of respondents stated that they have ever fully read a presidential candidate’s program. Forty-nine percent said they had read them partially, while 33% said they had never fully read the programs of politicians running for the highest state office.
- Yulia Tymoshenko remains the leader of the presidential rating, with 16% of those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice ready to support her. Anatolii Hrytsenko is supported by 11.7%, Yurii Boiko by 10.5%, Volodymyr Zelenskyy by 9.3%, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, Oleh Liashko, and Petro Poroshenko by 8.6% each. Vadym Rabinovych has 7.6%, Andrii Sadovyi 3.4%, Oleh Tiahnybok 2.8%, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 2.0%, Roman Bezsmertnyi 1.4%, Serhii Taruta 1.1%, and Arsenii Yatseniuk 1.1%.
- In the “second choice” ranking, the leading positions are held by Anatolii Hrytsenko, who could receive support as an alternative to the main favorite from 7.5% of voters, followed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy (6.3%), Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (6.0%), Vadym Rabinovych (5.7%), and Yulia Tymoshenko (5.3%).
- Petro Poroshenko continues to lead the negative rating: nearly 52% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances. Thirty percent would not vote for Arsenii Yatseniuk, 23.8% for Oleh Liashko, 23% for Yurii Boiko, 20.8% for Yulia Tymoshenko, 16.0% for Vadym Rabinovych, and 14.7% for Oleh Tiahnybok.
- The party rating is led by Batkivshchyna, which is supported by 17% of those who intend to vote and have decided. The second position is shared by the Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, and the Servant of the People party, each with about 10.5%. The For Life party is supported by 9.6%, the Radical Party by 8.2%, BPP Solidarity by 7.4%, Samopomich by 5.1%, and Svoboda by 3.8%. Other parties have ratings below 2%.
- Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union and NATO remains stable: 51% support EU membership and 29% oppose it; 44% support Euro-Atlantic integration and 36% oppose it.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2500 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 14-24 June 2018
.webp)
