12.11.2012
Exit Poll “UKRAINE-2012": demographic structure of voters
- According to the exit poll “UKRAINE–2012” conducted by Rating Group on October 28, 2012, commissioned by Channel 5, the survey was carried out at the exit of 350 polling stations. A total of 23,800 respondents were interviewed
- . According to the exit poll results, the Party of Regions was supported by almost 29% of respondents, Batkivshchyna by about 24%, UDAR by about 14%, the Communist Party by about 13%, and Svoboda by more than 12%. Deviations above the statistical margin of error were recorded only for Svoboda (-2.2), which, according to the Central Election Commission, received less support than indicated by the exit poll (10.4% vs. 12.6%).
- At the same time, according to official CEC data, the results of the Party of Regions (+1.3%) and Batkivshchyna (+1.6%) were higher than those shown by the Rating Group exit poll. Notably, all exit polls conducted on October 28, 2012 showed higher results for Svoboda than the CEC data, while Batkivshchyna and the Communist Party showed lower results. Regarding the Party of Regions, exit polls demonstrated mixed trends. According to official CEC results, the gap between the Party of Regions and Batkivshchyna was 4.5%. The closest estimates were provided by Rating Group (4.8%), the National Exit Poll (Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Razumkov Centre, KIIS) at 3.7%, and TNS/SOCIS at 6.6%.
- Compared with the latest Rating Group pre-election surveys (after redistribution of undecided voters), the total support for coalition parties (Party of Regions and Communist Party) decreased slightly from 44.5% in September to 43.2% on election day, while the combined support for opposition parties (Batkivshchyna, UDAR, and Svoboda) increased from 46.4% in September to 49.9% on election day. The data also confirmed demographic voting patterns, including lower turnout among younger voters and higher participation among older age groups, which slightly reduced UDAR’s final result compared to polling expectations.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 23,800 respondents
- Method: exit poll (self-administered questionnaires at polling stations)
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 10%: ≤ 1%
- near 20–30%: ≤ 1.5–2%
- Fieldwork period: October 28, 2012
