15.10.2012
Electoral moods: District 118
- According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, the leaders of electoral preferences among political parties in the constituency are Batkivshchyna, which 29.3% of respondents who intend to vote (88% in the constituency) are ready to support, and the UDAR party with 27.0%. Svoboda is supported by 23.9% of respondents. The ratings of other parties are much lower: the Party of Regions is supported by 2.8%, Nasha Ukraina by 1.4%, “Ukraine – Forward!” by 1.4%, and the Communist Party by 0.5%. Those who are still undecided amount to 1.1%.
- Compared to last month, the rating of Batkivshchyna has slightly decreased — by 3%. At the same time, UDAR has grown significantly — by 11%. The rating of Svoboda remains unchanged.
The number of those who cannot decide has decreased by 6%. - The largest share of young people is among UDAR supporters — 35%. Meanwhile, the largest share of older voters (50+) is among Batkivshchyna supporters — 47%. Among Party of Regions supporters, the largest share of people with higher education — 44%.
- There are more men among UDAR voters, while women significantly dominate the Batkivshchyna electorate.
ATTITUDES TOWARD LOCAL POLITICIANS
- B. Dubnevych is known to 88% of respondents, Yu. Mykhalchyshyn to 75%, and T. Mandziuk to only 39%.
- The leaders in the positive attitude rating are Yu. Mykhalchyshyn and B. Dubnevych. 35–36% of respondents have a positive opinion of them. Only 15% have a positive opinion of T. Mandziuk.
- A quarter of respondents have a negative opinion of B. Dubnevych. At the same time, only 6–9% have a negative opinion of his opponents.
- Yu. Mykhalchyshyn is the clear favorite in the positive-attitude ranking among Svoboda supporters — 72%. A third of UDAR and Batkivshchyna voters also view him positively, as well as one in five of the undecided.
- B. Dubnevych is viewed positively by half of Batkivshchyna supporters, 43% of Party of Regions supporters, and one third of UDAR, Svoboda, and the undecided.
- T. Mandziuk is viewed positively mainly by UDAR supporters.
CANDIDATE RATINGS
- The leaders of electoral support among candidates in the single-member district are B. Dubnevych (31.3%) and Yu. Mykhalchyshyn (30.2%).
T. Mandziuk is supported by 12.9%. The ratings of other candidates do not exceed 1.5%. The share of those who are undecided is 22.5%. - Compared to the previous survey, there are some changes in the candidates’ ratings. The rating of B. Dubnevych has remained virtually unchanged, Yu. Mykhalchyshyn has fallen by 5%, while T. Mandziuk’s popularity has increased (by almost 5%). There is also a slight decrease in the number of undecided voters.
- B. Dubnevych is supported by 46% of Batkivshchyna supporters, 35% of Party of Regions, 28% of UDAR, 18% of Svoboda, and one quarter of the undecided.
- Yu. Mykhalchyshyn is supported by two thirds of Svoboda supporters, one quarter of Batkivshchyna, 14% of UDAR, and 12% of the undecided.
- T. Mandziuk is supported by 40% of UDAR supporters. In other electorates, his support is low.
- The youngest electorate belongs to T. Mandziuk — 33% are young people. The largest share of older voters is among Yu. Mykhalchyshyn’s supporters — half are 50+.
- Among B. Dubnevych’s supporters, only one quarter have higher education, compared with 34% among Yu. Mykhalchyshyn’s supporters and 43% among T. Mandziuk’s.
- Women dominate among B. Dubnevych’s supporters, while men slightly dominate among T. Mandziuk’s electorate.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of Pustomyty district and parts of Lychakivskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts of the city of Lviv, aged 18+.
- Sample size: 1,800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face interviews.
- Margin of error (for the district overall):
– near 50%: ≤ 2.4%
– near 30%: ≤ 2.2%
– near 10%: ≤ 1.5% - Fieldwork period: September 29 – October 9, 2012
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