27.07.2020
Ukraine: assessment of the socio-political situation
- According to the results of the survey conducted by the Rating Group during 15–20 July, 19% believe that overall affairs in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, while 68% hold the opposite view.
- More than 60% believe that the economic situation in Ukraine has worsened over the past six months, one quarter think it has not changed, and only 8% have noticed an improvement. At the same time, expectations regarding the future are more optimistic: 17% believe that in the next six months the economic situation in Ukraine will improve, 35% think it will not change, and 40% expect deterioration. However, in the long-term dynamics, the share of those expecting improvement is declining; alongside this, the feeling of hope (26%) among the population is also somewhat decreasing, while disappointment remains the most frequently felt emotion (43%).
- Overall, most respondents see the cause of a possible economic crisis in the incompetence of the authorities, although one quarter believe that economic decline will occur due to the coronavirus.
- The trust rating among national politicians is led by the incumbent President V. Zelenskyy, who is trusted by 41% and not trusted by 53%.
- 27% of respondents trust V. Groysman, while 63% do not trust him; 23% trust Y. Boyko and 57% do not; V. Klitschko is trusted by 22% and not trusted by 67%; D. Razumkov is trusted by 21% and not trusted by 46%, while 23% do not know him; Y. Tymoshenko is trusted by 20% and not trusted by 74%; P. Poroshenko is trusted by 19% and not trusted by 76%. In addition, 11% trust A. Portnov, while 41% do not know him and another 42% do not trust him. Only 11% trust the incumbent Prime Minister D. Shmyhal; one quarter do not know him, and more than half do not trust him.
- The presidential rating is also led by V. Zelenskyy; if elections were held in the near future, he would be supported by 30.2% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. 14.4% would vote for Y. Boyko, 13.7% for P. Poroshenko, and 9.1% for Y. Tymoshenko. Another 5.8% would vote for I. Smeshko, 3.9% for O. Lyashko, 3.1% for V. Groysman, and 3.0% for A. Hrytsenko. The ratings of other candidates do not exceed 3%, and about 13% are undecided.
- 36% are satisfied with the activities of President V. Zelenskyy, while 56% are dissatisfied; 24% are satisfied with the work of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada D. Razumkov, and 55% are dissatisfied. Only 12% approve of the work of Prime Minister D. Shmyhal, one quarter cannot assess his activities, and 62% do not approve. The activities of the Verkhovna Rada and the Government are approved by even fewer respondents: about 10% are satisfied with their activities, while almost 80% are dissatisfied.
- In the parliamentary rating, the leader is the Servant of the People party, which nearly 28% among those ready to vote and who have decided on their choice are prepared to support; almost 16% are ready to vote for the Opposition Platform, 14% for European Solidarity, and about 10% for Batkivshchyna. About 4% would support the Radical Party and the Strength and Honor party, and around 3% are ready to support the Shariy party, Svoboda, and the Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman.
- Half of the respondents tend to support a local party in the local elections in October, even if it runs only in one region, while almost 30% intend to vote for a well-known national political force.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and settlement type.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- Total sample: 2000 respondents.
- The margin of error with a 0.95 confidence level does not exceed 2.2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 15-20 July, 2020.
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