01.11.2018
Electoral moods and problems that most concern the population of Ukraine, autumn 2018
- According to the results of a public opinion survey conducted between September 28 and October 16, 2018 by the Social Monitoring Center, the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, and the Rating Group, the issues that currently concern Ukrainians the most are the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine (54.4%), low wages and pensions (54.1%), rising utility tariffs (48.1%), rising prices for basic goods and inflation (34.9%), unemployment and lack of jobs (26.8%), bribery and corruption in government (25.5%), as well as the inability to obtain quality medical care (19%).
- The military conflict in the East is of greatest concern to residents of Donbas (68.4%), respondents aged 50–59 (54.7%), men (54.2%), and those with an average material standard of living (55.7%). Low wages and pensions are a more acute problem for older people (62.8%), women (53.9%), and respondents with very low or low material status (56.9%). Rising utility tariffs are a particularly sensitive issue for respondents aged 60 and older (53.3%), women (50.4%), and economically disadvantaged respondents (50.4%). Rising prices for basic goods and inflation most concern these same categories of respondents. Unemployment and lack of work are felt more strongly by residents of Western (30.5%) and Southern (29.4%) Ukraine, respondents aged 18–29 (35.5%), men (27%), and rural residents (31%).
- A total of 75.8% of respondents stated that they are ready to come to polling stations during the presidential election. At the same time, 11.9% believe they will definitely not vote, 7.6% say they are unlikely to vote, and 4.7% were undecided or refused to answer.
- If the presidential election were held next week, the highest chances of reaching the second round would belong to Yuliya Tymoshenko (13.4% of all respondents / 18.9% of those who have decided and intend to vote), Volodymyr Zelenskyi (7.6% / 10.7%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (7.0% / 9.9%), Petro Poroshenko (7.0% / 9.9%), and Yurii Boiko (6.9% / 9.8%). Oleh Liashko (5.7% / 8.0%) and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (4.9% / 7.0%) have significantly lower chances of advancing to the final stage of the election.
- Second-round simulations of the presidential election produced the following results. In a Poroshenko–Hrytsenko pairing, 14.3% would support Poroshenko and 33.1% would support Hrytsenko. In a Tymoshenko–Hrytsenko pairing, 24.8% would vote for Tymoshenko and 26.9% for Hrytsenko. In a Poroshenko–Tymoshenko pairing, 15.1% would support Poroshenko and 30.7% Tymoshenko. In a Poroshenko–Boiko pairing, 20.0% would support the incumbent president and 20.2% would support the leader of the Opposition Bloc. In a Tymoshenko–Boiko pairing, 30.3% would vote for Tymoshenko and 16.8% for Boiko. In a Hrytsenko–Boiko pairing, support would stand at 31.3% and 15.9%, respectively.
- Regarding parliamentary elections, 72.3% of respondents stated that they would be ready to take part in elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, while 21.9% said they would not, and 5.8% were undecided.
- When asked directly about party choice, 14.7% said they would not participate in parliamentary elections if they were held on the nearest Sunday. One fifth of all respondents (20.3%) had not yet made a final decision.
- As of now, eight political forces could potentially overcome the 5% threshold and enter parliament. Among those who have decided and intend to vote, 21.4% would support the Batkivshchyna party, 11.3% the Opposition Bloc, 10.5% Civic Position, 9.8% Servant of the People, 9.1% the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 8.1% the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko, 5.4% the For Life party, and 5.0% the Self-Reliance Union.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 13684 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 0.85%.
- Fieldwork dates: 28 September – 16 October, 2018
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