31.08.2016
Electoral moods In Ukraine: August 2016
- According to a survey by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada were held in the near future, one third of respondents would definitely take part, and six parties would enter parliament: Batkivshchyna (18.3% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice), Opposition Bloc (12.6%), Samopomich (11.0%), Radical Party (11.0%), Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” (9.1%), and Svoboda (5.6%). 4.8% would support the party Civic Position, 3.1% the party of Mikheil Saakashvili, while Revival and UKROP would each receive about 2%. It should be noted that among all respondents almost one in five had not yet decided on their party choice.
- If presidential elections were held in the near future, one third of respondents would definitely participate. Among those who intend to vote and have decided, Yuliya Tymoshenko would receive 17.7%, Yuriy Boyko 11.5%, Petro Poroshenko 10.7%, Oleh Liashko 9.8%, Andriy Sadovyi 8.9%, Anatolii Hrytsenko 7.5%, Nadiya Savchenko 5.6%, and Oleh Tiahnybok 4.3%. More than 2% would vote for Dmytro Yarosh and Serhiy Tihipko.
- During 2016, Poroshenko’s rating fell by half (from 23% to 11%), while support for Tymoshenko increased (from 13% to 18%) and for Liashko (from 8% to 10%). Over the last two months, Savchenko’s rating fell from 10% to 6%, while Tymoshenko’s rose from 15% to 18%.
- About a quarter of respondents trust Sadovyi (25%), Hrytsenko (23%), and Savchenko (22%). The highest level of distrust is toward Arseniy Yatsenyuk (90%). Over the last two months, trust in Savchenko halved (from 41% to 22%), while distrust rose (from 41% to 63%); 14% are undecided. The most favorable attitudes toward Savchenko remain in the West and Center, in rural areas, and among women.
- 15% of respondents are well informed about Savchenko’s controversial political statements, 50% have heard something, 31% are not familiar, and 4% are undecided. Among those who are informed or have heard about them, half do not support her statements, 36% support them, and 15% are undecided. Support is highest in the East and South.
- Among Savchenko’s statements, the one that receives the highest support is: “Western provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine could lead the planet to a third world war” (48% support, 34% do not). The least supported are: “All participants of the LPR and DPR should be granted amnesty except their leaders” and “Maidan and Anti-Maidan stood for the same values” (28% support, 55% do not), and “Ukrainians will have to ask forgiveness for their sons, husbands, and fathers who died in Donbas” (33% support, 53% do not).
- 34% believe that Savchenko would be most useful to Ukraine as a military pilot, 17% support her leading an international committee on the release of Ukrainian POWs and political prisoners, and 17% support her work as a member of parliament. 4% support her entering the presidential race, 2% see her as Minister of Defense, 3% as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, 9% choose other roles, and 13% are undecided.
- Over the last two months, support for Savchenko returning to the army as a military pilot increased (from 24% to 34%), while support declined for her heading the international committee (from 20% to 17%), running for President (from 9% to 4%), and serving as Minister of Defense (from 4% to 2%). Among those who trust Savchenko, her greatest usefulness is seen in parliamentary or international humanitarian roles or in presidential politics. Those who do not trust her mainly support her return to the army.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian population 18 years and over. The sample is representative by age, gender, region and type of settlement.
- Sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- Inaccuracy no more than 2,2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 18-23 of August 2016
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