12.10.2010
Electoral mood of the population of Ivano-Frankivsk: October 2010
- Only one quarter of residents of Ivano-Frankivsk believe that the overall situation in the city is improving. Most of them are voters of Viktor Anushkevychus and, at the party level, primarily supporters of Batkivshchyna and Strong Ukraine. A further 43% say the situation in the city is not changing, most of them being voters of the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine, while 28% believe the situation is worsening, mainly supporters of Front for Change and the Third Force, whose list is headed by Yurii Solovei.
- Almost one third of city residents are satisfied with the performance of the Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk, Viktor Anushkevychus, although only 9% say they are fully satisfied, while 52% are dissatisfied. According to respondents, the most effective actions of the local authorities concern garbage collection and waste removal, with an effectiveness index of +39, as well as water supply and sewage services at +36. Actions are also seen as relatively effective in the areas of culture and spirituality, public transport and urban landscaping, while they are viewed as weak in heating, the construction of children’s and sports playgrounds and education. The most ineffective areas are healthcare, the fight against corruption, job creation and the maintenance of roads and sidewalks, with negative indices, and poor road conditions have become the main symbol of dissatisfaction with the incumbent mayor.
- Three weeks before the election, only 17% of residents believe it would be better for the city if the incumbent mayor remains in office, while 64% think it would be better if the city is led by a new person, mainly supporters of the Third Force, Svoboda and Front for Change. Eleven percent say it makes no difference to them who becomes mayor and 8% are undecided. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say they will definitely participate in the local elections on 31 October, while another 14% rate their likelihood of participation as high.
- At the beginning of October, the leaders in electoral preferences in the mayoral race are Yurii Solovei with 35% among those who intend to vote and Viktor Anushkevychus with 21%. Other candidates are far behind, with Ruslan Marcinkiv supported by 6%, Volodymyr Balagura by 4%, Volodymyr Boichuk, Bohdan Fedkiv, Ihor Prokopiv and Vasyl Kozachok by 2% each, Petro Andrusiak by 1%, and other candidates together by about 10%, while 3% support no candidate and 12% are undecided. If Ihor Nasalyk and Zinovii Shkutiak had entered the race, the top five would be Solovei with 32%, Anushkevychus with 19%, Shkutiak with 10%, Marcinkiv with 6% and Nasalyk with 5%, reflecting the fact that many of their supporters were undecided at the time of the survey and tended to lean more toward Solovei than Anushkevychus.
- The key criteria for choosing a mayoral candidate are managerial experience at 43%, the ability to solve household-level problems at 36%, political experience at 34% and an untarnished reputation at 31%, with the importance of managerial experience being lower in Ivano-Frankivsk than in nationwide surveys, reflecting the fact that the frontrunner in the race is a young politician.
- In elections to the city council, the most mobilized voters are those of Strong Ukraine, Svoboda and Batkivshchyna. Three weeks before the vote, Svoboda leads with 25% among likely voters, followed by Batkivshchyna with 16% and the new party Third Force, led by Yurii Solovei, with 9%. Our Ukraine has 7%, the Party of Regions and Front for Change each have 6%, and Strong Ukraine has 5%, while no other party exceeds 2%. About 4% support no party and 12% are undecided.
- If parliamentary elections were held the following week, 23% of residents of Ivano-Frankivsk would vote for Svoboda, 16% for Batkivshchyna, 9% for Our Ukraine, 7% for the Party of Regions, and 6% each for Front for Change and Strong Ukraine. In a presidential election, 27% would support Yulia Tymoshenko, 16% Oleh Tyahnybok, 11% Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 9% Serhiy Tihipko, 7% Viktor Yanukovych, and 6% each Viktor Yushchenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko. Notably, the personal ratings of Tymoshenko, Tihipko, Yatsenyuk and Hrytsenko are significantly higher than their party ratings, while in the case of Svoboda and Our Ukraine the party performs better than its leader.
- The highest levels of trust among national politicians are recorded for Yulia Tymoshenko, Oleh Tyahnybok and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, while Viktor Yanukovych and Mykola Azarov are trusted the least. Among local politicians, Yurii Solovei enjoys the highest trust at 54% and is the only local figure with a positive trust index, followed by Viktor Anushkevychus, Zinovii Shkutiak and Mykhailo Vyshyvaniuk.
Methodology
- Survey organization: Rating Group.
- Survey population: residents of the city of Ivano-Frankivsk aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 2.8% for values close to 50%, no more than 2.4% for values close to 30%, and no more than 1.7% for values close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 1–8 October 2010.
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