Electoral sentiment of the population of Ukraine: October 2009

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20.10.2009

Electoral sentiment of the population of Ukraine: October 2009

According to the results of a nationwide survey conducted in October 2009, voter activity increased over the previous two months. Thus, 57.5% of respondents stated that they would definitely take part in the presidential election (49% in August), while 26.2% said they would rather take part (31% in August).
The presidential sympathy ratings are led by Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko. Over the past two months, both front-runners have strengthened their positions. The greatest growth was recorded for Yu. Tymoshenko (from 15.4% to 19.4%), and slightly less for V. Yanukovych (from 28.9% to 31.1%). Both politicians are working on mobilizing their core electorate. Support for Yu. Tymoshenko increased across the country, most notably in the West and the North. In turn, V. Yanukovych increased his support in Donbas, the South, the Center, and the North, while losing some ground in the East.
Support for A. Yatsenyuk fell from 12.3% to 8%. The leader of the “Front of Change” suffered the greatest losses in the West, where his rating dropped from 24% to 13%. Accordingly, for the first time in the past six months Yu. Tymoshenko topped the sympathy rankings in the West. In addition, A. Yatsenyuk lost support in the East, the South, and the North.
An increase in support for S. Tihipko was recorded, whose rating has almost tripled since August (from 1% to 2.9%). The largest progress was seen in the East, where his rating rose from 1.7% to 6.4%, as well as in the Center, the North, and Donbas. As a result, S. Tihipko has nearly caught up with V. Yushchenko and P. Symonenko and slightly overtakes V. Lytvyn.
A slight improvement in the positions of V. Yushchenko was also recorded (from 2.6% to 3.4%), primarily in the West, along with a slight decline in the positions of V. Lytvyn (from 3.7% to 2.2%), mainly in the North. In virtually every region there is a tendency toward a decrease in the number of respondents intending to vote for so-called “other” candidates, indicating a crystallization of voters around the main favorites.
The distribution of votes among those who intend to take part in the presidential election is as follows: V. Yanukovych – 35.6%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 22.1%, A. Yatsenyuk – 9.1%, P. Symonenko – 3.9%, V. Yushchenko – 3.8%, S. Tihipko – 3.3%, and V. Lytvyn – 2.3%. The remainder account for 4.6%, “against all” – 7.2%, and undecided – 7.9%.
In response to the question “Who would you vote for if the second round featured V. Yanukovych and Yu. Tymoshenko?”, almost 40% of respondents favored the leader of the Party of Regions and 30% favored the leader of BYuT. It should be noted that in August the gap between these two candidates in a second round was 12.5%, while in October it narrowed to 10%.
Regarding the alternative pair “Yanukovych–Yatsenyuk”, the opposite trend is observed: in August the difference was 10.5%, while in October it widened to 13% (39% versus 26%) in favor of V. Yanukovych. In the hypothetical pair “Yatsenyuk–Tymoshenko”, Yu. Tymoshenko prevails in October with 27% to 23%, whereas in August A. Yatsenyuk had led with 23% to 19%.
No Ukrainian politician has a positive trust–distrust balance. In the trust ranking, V. Yanukovych leads (41% trust him, 53% do not). The highest trust in the leader of the Party of Regions is recorded in Donbas and the South (69% and 62% respectively), and the lowest in the West (16%), where 79% of respondents distrust him.
Yu. Tymoshenko and A. Yatsenyuk have nearly equal overall trust levels, at about 31% each. However, almost twice as many respondents fully trust the BYuT leader compared to the leader of the “Front of Change” (15% versus 9%). At the same time, more respondents distrust Yu. Tymoshenko than A. Yatsenyuk (64% versus 56%).
V. Lytvyn is trusted by 30% (only 4% trust him fully) and distrusted by 60%. The highest trust in the Speaker of Parliament is in the North and the South (38% and 36% respectively), and the lowest in Donbas (18%). V. Yushchenko is trusted by 9% (only 3% fully), while 86% do not trust him. The highest trust in the incumbent President is in the West and the North (24% and 10% respectively), while in other regions trust ranges from 1% in Donbas to 5% in the Center.
Party ratings mirror the trends in support for presidential candidates. The distribution of votes among those who intend to take part in the parliamentary elections is as follows: Party of Regions – 35.8%, BYuT – 21.5%, Yatsenyuk Bloc – 7.8%, Communist Party of Ukraine – 3.9%, Our Ukraine – 3.1%, Tihipko Bloc – 2.5%, and Lytvyn Bloc – 1.9%. Other parties and blocs account for 4.8%, “against all” – 8%, and undecided – 10.7%.

Methodology

Fieldwork dates: 3–12 October 2009.
Sample size: 2,000.
Age: 18+.
Methodology: face-to-face formalized interviews using a questionnaire.
Margin of error: up to 3% for values close to 50%, up to 2.6% for values close to 30%, and up to 1.8% for values close to 10%.
Regions:
- West (Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi);
- Center (Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy);
- North (Kyiv city, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv); South (Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol city);
- East (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv);
- Donbas (Donetsk, Luhansk).