12.10.2012
Electoral moods: District 115
- According to the results of the study conducted by the Rating Group, the leaders in the ranking of political forces in single-member electoral district No. 115 of the city of Lviv are the UDAR party, which 29.6% of respondents intend to vote for, and Batkivshchyna, supported by 27.6%. The data are presented among those who stated that they intend to take part in the elections — such respondents make up 82% in the district. Svoboda also has significant support — 18.2%. The ratings of other parties are much lower — about 3% of respondents intend to vote for Nasha Ukraina, the Party of Regions, or the party “Ukraine – Forward!”. Other political forces are supported by no more than 1% of respondents. The share of those undecided is 14.1%.
- Over the past month, the popularity of the UDAR party has increased by almost 10%, allowing it to take the leading position in the ranking. The popularity of Batkivshchyna has fallen by 6%, and that of Svoboda by 3%. No significant changes are observed in the ratings of other parties or in the number of the undecided.
- The largest share of young people is among UDAR supporters. In contrast, more than half of Batkivshchyna supporters are over 50 years old. Among Svoboda voters, more than 40% are older.
- More than half of UDAR and Svoboda supporters have higher education. Among Batkivshchyna voters, this share is one third, while 40% of this party’s supporters have secondary specialized education. In Batkivshchyna’s electorate, two thirds are women. Among UDAR supporters, 56% are women, while among Svoboda supporters the gender balance is equal.
- ATTITUDES TOWARD LOCAL POLITICIANS
- The politicians whose names were included in the questionnaire are well known in the district: D. Dobrodomov is known by 78% of respondents, R. Fedyshyn by 71%, and M. Khmil by 68%.
- The highest positive rating belongs to D. Dobrodomov — 47% of respondents have a positive opinion of him (a quarter say their attitude is definitely positive).
- M. Khmil evokes positive emotions in 35% of respondents, and R. Fedyshyn in 27% (8% have a negative opinion of him).
- D. Dobrodomov is the favorite among UDAR supporters — three quarters of them have a positive attitude toward him. Among supporters of Batkivshchyna and Svoboda, 48% hold a positive opinion of him.
- M. Khmil is viewed positively by two thirds of Batkivshchyna supporters, half of Svoboda supporters, and only 28% of UDAR supporters.
- R. Fedyshyn is viewed positively by 35% of Batkivshchyna supporters, 29% of UDAR, and 28% of Svoboda supporters.
- CANDIDATE RATINGS
- Among the candidates in the district, two leaders of electoral support remain. Against the backdrop of the growing rating of UDAR, D. Dobrodomov, with 32.6%, has taken the leading position. M. Khmil, against the background of declining ratings of Batkivshchyna, with 27%, has fallen to second place. R. Fedyshyn is supported by 9.8%. Other candidates have virtually no chance of interfering in the fight for victory. One quarter of respondents remain undecided.
- D. Dobrodomov mobilizes 71% of UDAR supporters, 17–18% of Batkivshchyna and Svoboda supporters, and 15% of those undecided about their party choice.
- M. Khmil is supported by 58% of Batkivshchyna supporters, 44% of Svoboda, and only 4% of UDAR supporters.
- Almost every tenth supporter of the most popular parties intends to vote for R. Fedyshyn.
- Over the past month, Dobrodomov’s rating has increased by 4%; Khmil’s decline is within the statistical margin of error. Meanwhile, Fedyshyn’s popularity has tripled.
- There is a gradual decline in the share of those undecided about a candidate — from 33.3% to 24.1%.
- The youngest electorate is that of R. Fedyshyn — one third are under 30 years old. The largest share of older voters is among M. Khmil’s supporters — half are over 50.
- The highest share of people with higher education is among Dobrodomov’s supporters and among those undecided about candidates.
- Women dominate among supporters of R. Fedyshyn and D. Dobrodomov, while among M. Khmil’s supporters there is gender parity.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of Sykhiv District and part of Lychakiv District of Lviv, aged 18 and over.
- Sample size: 1,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error (for the district as a whole):
– near 50%: no more than 3.5%
– near 30%: no more than 3.2%
– near 10%: no more than 2.1% - Fieldwork period: September 27 – October 8, 2012.
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