10.10.2012
Electoral moods: District 126
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group, the clear leader of electoral preferences in the multi-member constituency No. 126 (Stryi) is Batkivshchyna. If elections were held, 44.4% of respondents who intend to vote (89% in the constituency) would support this political force.
- UDAR would receive 18.6%, Svoboda – 13.1%. Our Ukraine would gain 2.9%, the Party of Regions – 2.8%, and “Ukraine – Forward!” – 2.1%. The ratings of other parties are below 2%. 13.4% of respondents remain undecided.
- Batkivshchyna leads the party ratings in all territories of the constituency. However, the share of its supporters differs significantly by district. Thus, in Stryi district it is supported by 52%, in Zhydachiv district – 42%, and in the city of Stryi – only 39%. In Stryi city, the highest share of undecided voters is recorded (20%).
- UDAR is most strongly supported in Zhydachiv district – 24% of respondents. In Stryi district, 17% would vote for this party, and in Stryi city – 14%. In the city of Stryi, UDAR ranks third, behind Svoboda, which here is supported by 15%. A high level of support for Svoboda is also observed in Zhydachiv district (15%), while in Stryi district its popularity is noticeably lower (9%).
- In Zhydachiv district, Our Ukraine also enjoys relatively higher support (5%).
- The youngest electorate traditionally belongs to UDAR (one-third of its voters are under 30). In contrast, one-third of Batkivshchyna’s and Svoboda’s supporters are pensioners. Svoboda has the largest share of voters with higher education. Men are most numerous among Svoboda’s supporters, while women dominate among Batkivshchyna’s supporters. The latter’s electorate mostly lives in rural areas. Half of UDAR’s voters are concentrated in Zhydachiv district.
- A high concentration of Svoboda supporters is also observed there. Meanwhile, Batkivshchyna has noticeably more supporters in Stryi district.
- CANDIDATE RATINGS.
O. Kanivets is the leader in the single-member district. 32.8% of respondents who intend to vote would support him.
A. Kit would receive 24.0%, I. Ostash – 13.2%, I. Teniukh – 4.6%, S. Kanivets – 3.7%. The ratings of other candidates are below 2%. 17.7% remain undecided. - A. Kit is supported by nearly two-thirds of UDAR’s supporters in the district. In turn, O. Kanivets is supported by slightly less than half of Batkivshchyna’s supporters. 15% of Batkivshchyna voters would vote for A. Kit, and 13% for I. Ostash. It is I. Ostash who may most strongly split Batkivshchyna’s vote.
- At the same time, O. Kanivets has a solid reserve of support among Svoboda’s voters – every third of them is ready to vote for him. Every fifth Svoboda supporter would vote for one of the other two candidates. Among the undecided, one quarter support O. Kanivets, and one in ten support I. Ostash or A. Kit.
- By territory, O. Kanivets has the highest rating in Stryi city (42%) and Stryi district (34%). In Zhydachiv district, his support is somewhat lower (25%).
- A. Kit is the clear leader in Zhydachiv district (45%). In Stryi district, his support is much lower: 15% in the district and only 7% in Stryi city.
- I. Ostash is best supported in Stryi city (21%). In Stryi district, 15% would vote for him, while in Zhydachiv district – only 6%.
- The largest share of undecided voters is in Stryi district – 18–21%. In Zhydachiv district, their share is slightly lower (15%).
- One quarter of the electorates of O. Kanivets and A. Kit are young people under 30. At the same time, among A. Kit’s supporters, one quarter are pensioners, while for O. Kanivets this group accounts for one in five.
- Among supporters of I. Teniukh and I. Ostash, men prevail, while among O. Kanivets’ supporters, women dominate.
- Among O. Kanivets’ supporters, the share of employed people is the highest (65%), while it is the lowest among A. Kit’s electorate (41%).
- The largest share of urban residents is found among I. Ostash’s supporters, and the smallest among A. Kit’s. Three-quarters of A. Kit’s supporters live in Zhydachiv district.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of Stryi, Morshyn, and Stryi and Zhydachiv districts, aged 18 and over.
- Sample size: 1,500 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error (for the constituency overall):
– near 50%: no more than 2.5%
– near 30%: no more than 2.2%
– near 10%: no more than 1.5% - Fieldwork period: August 25 – September 4, 2012.
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