05.04.2011
Electoral moods of Lviv residents: March 2011
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, as of March 2011 the level of voter mobilization in Lviv remains relatively high: 43% of Lviv residents would definitely take part in parliamentary elections and 48% in presidential elections if they were held next Sunday. Another roughly one-third would probably participate rather than abstain.
- The highest level of mobilization in parliamentary elections is observed among Svoboda voters, while in presidential elections it is highest among supporters of Yuliya Tymoshenko. The lowest mobilization is recorded among residents who have not decided on their choice and among those who would vote “against all”.
- If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 26.8% of Lviv voters would support Svoboda (figures are given among those who intend to vote). Batkivshchyna would receive 18.1%, Front for Change 14.8%, the Party of Regions 4.4%, Civic Position 3.8%, UDAR 3.6%, Strong Ukraine 3.3%, Our Ukraine 2.1%, the European Party 1.6%, and the People’s Movement 1%. Each of the remaining parties would receive less than 1%, together accounting for over 5%. About 7.2% would not support any party, while 8.2% are undecided.
- If presidential elections were held next Sunday, 22.4% of Lviv voters would vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko (among those intending to vote). Arseniy Yatseniuk would receive 19.4%, Oleh Tyahnybok 17.4%, Anatoliy Hrytsenko 6.8%, Serhiy Tihipko 4.1%, Viktor Yanukovych 3.6%, Viktor Yushchenko 3.3%, and Vitalii Klychko 3.3%. Other candidates together would receive more than 6%. About 8% would not support any candidate, and 6% are undecided.
- Trends
- For the first time in the past six months, Yuliya Tymoshenko has taken the lead in the presidential race in Lviv. This result is driven by the very high mobilization of her supporters. Compared to February, her rating rose from 18% to 22%, while the party’s rating remained almost unchanged. Arseniy Yatseniuk ranks second at 19%, essentially unchanged from February. Oleh Tyahnybok ranks third, having slightly improved his position from 15% to 17%, though still below his December level.
- The strongest growth is shown by Anatoliy Hrytsenko, whose rating rose dynamically and reached 7% in March for the first time. Vitalii Klychko’s rating remains around 3–4%. Viktor Yushchenko continues to lose support, falling to 3% for the first time. Viktor Yanukovych and Serhiy Tihipko are also losing support, both dropping to around 4%.
- Svoboda remains the leader in the party rating, with stable support of 26–27%, which restrains the growth of Batkivshchyna (18–19%) and Front for Change (15%). In the case of Svoboda, the party’s rating significantly exceeds the leader’s, while for Batkivshchyna and Front for Change the opposite is true.
- Civic Position and UDAR have gained slightly, with their ratings rising to about 4%. The Party of Regions and Strong Ukraine remain at low levels (3–4%). Our Ukraine has fallen to 2% for the first time.
- Among national-level politicians, Oleh Tyahnybok continues to enjoy the highest level of trust in Lviv, with 50% trusting him and 41% not trusting him. Trust in Arseniy Yatseniuk declined from 55% to 48%, and trust in Yuliya Tymoshenko from 35% to 31%, although this did not affect their electoral positions. Vitalii Klychko is trusted by 43% of Lviv residents and not trusted by 38%. Tyahnybok, Yatseniuk and Klychko are the only national politicians who have a positive balance of trust in the city.
- Anatoliy Hrytsenko is trusted by 38% and not trusted by 42%. Viktor Yushchenko is trusted by 18% and not trusted by 73%. Viktor Yanukovych is trusted by only 8% and not trusted by 86%, representing record-low trust and record-high distrust for both politicians over the past several years. Serhiy Tihipko is trusted by 17% and not trusted by 72%.
- Among local politicians, the highest level of trust is held by Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, whom 57% trust and 32% do not trust. These figures have not changed since December. Petro Pysarchuk is trusted by 23% and not trusted by 56%, also largely unchanged. Vasyl Kuibida is trusted by 18% and not trusted by 58%.
- Mykhailo Tsymbaliuk is trusted by 16% and not trusted by 30%, while 17% do not know him and 38% could not define their attitude toward the head of the regional administration. Oleh Pankevych is trusted by 15% and not trusted by 27%, with trust rising since December, though 34% do not know him and 24% are undecided. Volodymyr Pavliuk is trusted by 9% and not trusted by 31%, while 45% do not know him and 16% are undecided.
- If the mayoral election in Lviv were held next Sunday, 46.7% of voters would support Andriy Sadovyi (among those intending to vote). Petro Pysarchuk would receive 12.2%, Yurii Mykhalchyshyn 5.4%, and Vasyl Hirniak 5%. Other candidates together would receive about 9%. About 9.4% would not support any candidate and 12.2% are undecided.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of the city of Lviv aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 2.8% for values close to 50%, 2.4% for values close to 30%, and 1.7% for values close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 17–26 March 2011.
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