31.05.2011
Electoral moods of Lviv residents: May 2011
- According to a study conducted by the Rating Group, as of May 2011 the level of political engagement among Lviv residents remains relatively high. If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 43% of Lviv residents would definitely take part and 49% would do so in presidential elections, while about another 30% would rather participate than not. The highest level of mobilization is observed among supporters of Svoboda, Front for Change and Batkivshchyna.
- If elections to the Verkhovna Rada were held next Sunday, 23.7% of Lviv residents who intend to vote would support Svoboda. Batkivshchyna would receive 19.7%, Front for Change 15.8%, Civic Position 4.9%, Our Ukraine 4.8%, Strong Ukraine 4.4%, the Party of Regions 3.2%, UDAR 2.5% and the European Party 1.9%. Other parties together would be supported by 8% of voters. About 6.3% would support no party at all, while 4.9% would be undecided.
- If presidential elections were held next Sunday, 20.4% of Lviv residents who intend to vote would support Yuliya Tymoshenko. Arseniy Yatsenyuk would receive 18.6%, Oleh Tyahnybok 12.9%, Vitali Klitschko 8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko 7.2%, Viktor Yushchenko 5.1%, Serhiy Tihipko 4.9% and Viktor Yanukovych 2.7%, while other candidates together would be supported by 7%. About 5% would not support any candidate and 7% would be undecided.
- Among national-level politicians, Arseniy Yatsenyuk enjoys the highest level of trust in the city. Over the past two months, trust in the Front for Change leader increased from 48% to 54%. Half of Lviv residents, 51%, trust Vitali Klitschko, while only 30% distrust him, and since March his trust level has grown from 43% to 51%. Trust in Anatolii Hrytsenko has also risen slightly, from 38% in March to 40% in May, and compared with September of the previous year, the share of Lviv residents who trust him has almost doubled from 23% to 40%, while 39% do not trust him. Oleh Tyahnybok is trusted by 47% and distrusted by 41%, and over the past three months his trust rating has declined from 51% to 47% while distrust has grown from 35% to 40%. Trust in Yuliya Tymoshenko has increased since March from 31% and stabilized at the level recorded in February 2011 and September 2010, at 35%. After reaching a record low in March at 18%, trust in Viktor Yushchenko in May returned to the level seen in February 2011 and September 2010, at 22%. Trust in Viktor Yanukovych continues to deteriorate, with only 8% trusting the head of state, and just 1% trusting him fully, compared to 3% in March, while 86% of Lviv residents do not trust him. Serhiy Tihipko is trusted by 19% and distrusted by 61%.
- As in March, Yuliya Tymoshenko continues to lead the presidential race in Lviv in May, and the rating of Batkivshchyna has grown over two months from 18% to 20%. The rating of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, at around 19%, and that of Front for Change, at around 15%, have remained stable throughout 2011. Oleh Tyahnybok’s rating has declined over the past two months from 17% to 13%, and support for Svoboda in parliamentary elections has also slightly decreased from 27% to 24%, bringing the party back to levels seen in mid-2010. Despite the fact that support for UDAR has remained relatively stable over the past six months at 3–4%, Vitali Klitschko’s personal rating has almost doubled over the last two months to a record 8%. This sharp rise in Klitschko’s support likely prevents Arseniy Yatsenyuk from taking first place in the presidential rating, even though Yatsenyuk currently leads in trust. Anatolii Hrytsenko continues to make progress, with his personal rating reaching 7% in May compared to 3% six months earlier, while Civic Position rose to 5% from 2%. After a record low of 2% in March, Our Ukraine has recovered to about 5%, while the ratings of the Party of Regions and Viktor Yanukovych have declined to record lows of about 3%.
- Among local politicians, Andriy Sadovyi enjoys the highest level of trust at 57%, while 34% do not trust him, and his trust level has remained stable over the past six months. Petro Pysarchuk is trusted by 27% and distrusted by 54%, with trust rising slightly since December from 24% to 27% and distrust declining from 56% to 54%. Oleh Pankevych is trusted by 20% and distrusted by 27%, and compared to December his trust rating as head of the regional council has nearly doubled from 11% to 20%, while the share of those unfamiliar with him has declined from 35% to 21%. Mykhailo Tsymbaliuk is trusted by 17% and distrusted by 45%, and while his trust level has barely changed since March, his distrust has risen from 30% to 45%, and the share of respondents unfamiliar with him has fallen from 17% to 7%. Vasyl Pavliuk is trusted by 12% and distrusted by 22%, and compared to December his trust level has increased from 8% to 12%, although nearly half of Lviv residents still do not know him.
- If mayoral elections were held next Sunday, 52.2% of Lviv residents who intend to vote would support Andriy Sadovyi. Petro Pysarchuk would receive 13.5%, Volodymyr Hirniak 4.6% and Yurii Mykhalchyshyn 3.1%, while other candidates together would receive about 12%. About 4.5% would support no candidate and 9.4% would be undecided. Over the past two months the rating of the incumbent mayor Andriy Sadovyi has increased the most, from 47% to 52%, as has that of his main rival in the previous election, Petro Pysarchuk, from 12% to 14%.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of the city of Lviv aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews using a questionnaire.
- Sampling error: for values close to 50% no more than 2.8%, for values close to 30% no more than 2.4%, for values close to 10% no more than 1.7%.
- Fieldwork period: 19–26 May 2011.
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