Electoral moods of Lviv region residents: November 2009

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08.12.2009

Electoral moods of Lviv region residents: November 2009

Residents of Lviv Oblast have fairly high expectations regarding the presidential elections: 84% are convinced that any presidential election should change the situation in the country for the better, and 54% expect positive changes as a result of the 2010 presidential election.
The highest expectations about the elections are among supporters of Viktor Yanukovych, Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko.
56% of residents of Lviv Oblast say that they will definitely take part in the presidential election, and 31% say they will probably take part.
The higher the expectations about the election, the greater the willingness to participate: among respondents who expect positive changes as a result of the election, 95% intend to vote; among those who do not expect changes, 75% intend to vote.
Residents of Lviv Oblast believe most strongly in the victory of Yuliya Tymoshenko — 42% of respondents expect that Y. Tymoshenko will become the next President of Ukraine, 21% expect V. Yanukovych, 12% expect V. Yushchenko, and 6% expect A. Yatsenyuk.
At the same time, 38% of respondents believe that Y. Tymoshenko will take first place in the first round, 32% second place, and 8% third place. 29% believe that V. Yanukovych will take first place in the first round, 28% second place, and 18% third place.
Half of V. Yushchenko’s supporters are convinced that he will take first place in the first round and become the next President. 15% predict second place for him, and another 15% third place. One third of A. Yatsenyuk’s supporters believe that he will win the first round and the election overall, 11% believe he will take second place in the first round, and one third predict third place.
The leader of voter sympathies in the oblast is Y. Tymoshenko (26%). This is followed by V. Yushchenko (18%), A. Yatsenyuk (10%), O. Tyahnybok (7%), V. Yanukovych (6%), S. Tihipko (2%), and V. Lytvyn (2%). It is noteworthy that “V. Against-all” is supported by 0.5%, and 10% are ready to vote “against all.” About 11% are undecided.
Among respondents who intend to take part in the election, the leading five are: Y. Tymoshenko – 29%, V. Yushchenko – 20%, A. Yatsenyuk – 12%, O. Tyahnybok – 7%, V. Yanukovych – 6%.
Y. Tymoshenko, V. Yushchenko and A. Yatsenyuk have higher support in villages, while O. Tyahnybok and V. Yanukovych have higher support in Lviv city. Y. Tymoshenko and V. Yushchenko have higher support among women, O. Tyahnybok among men.
V. Yushchenko is mainly supported by less educated citizens and the poorest citizens, A. Yatsenyuk by more educated citizens. Y. Tymoshenko leads among citizens with middle incomes.
If V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko reach the second round, about 10% of Lviv Oblast residents would vote for the Party of Regions leader, and about 60% for the BYuT leader.
If V. Yanukovych and A. Yatsenyuk reach the second round, about 10% would vote for Yanukovych and 64% for Yatsenyuk.
If V. Yanukovych and V. Yushchenko reach the second round, about 12% would vote for Yanukovych and 54% for Yushchenko.
The better result for A. Yatsenyuk in the hypothetical second round is ensured by higher support among V. Yushchenko’s supporters. The worse result for V. Yushchenko is due to decreased support among supporters of Y. Tymoshenko and A. Yatsenyuk.
In hypothetical matchups between Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk and Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, the BYuT leader wins: 41% vs 33% and 43% vs 30% respectively.
Voter sympathies in Lviv Oblast for parliamentary elections are distributed as follows: BYuT – 28%, Our Ukraine (Yushchenko) – 19%, Yatsenyuk Bloc – 10%, Svoboda – 9%, Party of Regions – 6%, Lytvyn Bloc – 2%, Tihipko Bloc – 1%. 8% are undecided, 6% would vote against all.
It should be noted that in local elections support for Svoboda is significantly higher than at the national level. In elections to the Lviv Oblast Council almost 16% are ready to vote for this party — nearly twice as many as in parliamentary elections. The leaders for the oblast council are BYuT – 24% and Our Ukraine – 16%. Yatsenyuk Bloc (9%) and Party of Regions (6%) also pass the 3% threshold.
In terms of full trust, Y. Tymoshenko leads in the oblast (19% fully trust, 28% rather trust), followed by V. Yushchenko (12% and 28%), A. Yatsenyuk (12% and 38%), and O. Tyahnybok (9% and 32%).
The greatest distrust in the oblast is toward O. Moroz (91%), V. Yanukovych (88%), and I. Bohoslovska (81%).
Residents of Lviv Oblast rate the Prime Minister’s work in overcoming the flu epidemic higher (46%) than the President’s (36%). However, electoral preferences dominate these judgments. 75% of Yushchenko’s supporters rate his work positively, while supporters of Yatsenyuk and Tymoshenko rate it twice as low. 80% of Tymoshenko’s supporters rate her work positively, while Yatsenyuk’s and Yushchenko’s supporters do so twice as rarely. Both Tymoshenko’s and Yushchenko’s handling of the flu epidemic is rated much better in villages than in Lviv city.
Among local authorities, residents are most satisfied with Andriy Sadovyi (10% fully satisfied, 33% rather satisfied). They are somewhat more satisfied with the governor Mykola Kmit (4% fully, 28% rather) than with the head of the oblast council Myroslav Senyk (4% fully, 25% rather). Kmit and Senyk are rated similarly in villages and in Lviv, while Sadovyi is rated higher in Lviv city.
Regarding national identity issues, if a referendum were held, only 7% would vote for granting Russian the status of a state language, and 84% would vote against. Even among Yanukovych supporters only about half support raising the status of Russian. Over 90% of supporters of Yatsenyuk, Yushchenko, Tyahnybok, and Tymoshenko would vote against.
Only 19% of Lviv Oblast residents support joining the Single Economic Space. Among them are only about 10% of Yushchenko, Tyahnybok and Tymoshenko supporters, about 25% of Yatsenyuk and Tihipko supporters, and over 60% of Yanukovych supporters.
60% support joining NATO, while about a quarter oppose it. The strongest opponents are Yanukovych supporters (60% against).
74% would support joining the European Union, and only 10% are against. The strongest supporters are voters of Tyahnybok (85%), Tymoshenko (80%), and Yatsenyuk (79%).
Given that only a quarter of Yatsenyuk’s supporters back joining the Single Economic Space, while 79% support EU membership, 67% NATO, and 94% oppose giving Russian state language status, it is fully predictable that they will have difficulty accepting Yatsenyuk’s new policy initiatives such as the “Eastern European Project.”