Electoral moods of Lviv region residents: September 2010

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05.10.2010

Electoral moods of Lviv region residents: September 2010

Half of respondents in Lviv Oblast say they are absolutely certain they will participate in the 2010 local elections, while a further 17% assess the likelihood of their participation as high. Almost 40% of respondents expect positive changes in the development of Lviv Oblast as a result of the local elections, 48% do not share such expectations, and 12% are undecided. The most optimistic expectations are observed among voters of the Party of Regions and Batkivshchyna, while the least optimistic are voters of Front for Change and Strong Ukraine. Expectations of positive change directly affect electoral participation, as among those who firmly expect positive changes, 72% are certain they will take part in the elections.
Forty-two percent of respondents expect a significant renewal of the regional council as a result of the local elections in Lviv Oblast, while about half do not expect such renewal and the remainder are undecided. Twenty-two percent believe that deputies will become more open to voters after the elections, while 71% do not expect this. In both cases, voters of the Party of Regions are the most optimistic. At the same time, 42% of respondents expect large-scale electoral fraud that would influence the results, while another quarter expect minor irregularities that would not affect the outcome. Only 14% do not expect fraud, and about one in five are undecided. The highest expectations of fraud are recorded among voters of Batkivshchyna, Svoboda and Front for Change. Among those who expect significant fraud, more than half believe it would be in favor of the Party of Regions, while one third believe all political forces would engage in fraud.
Seventy-five percent of residents of the oblast have a negative attitude toward the possibility that Batkivshchyna could be barred by the authorities from participating in elections to the Lviv Oblast Council. Negative assessments of such a decision strongly outweigh positive ones among voters of all political forces except the Party of Regions, more than one third of whose supporters would approve such a move.
In the presidential rating in Lviv Oblast, Yulia Tymoshenko remains the leader, with her support virtually unchanged since June at 24.7% among all respondents. The ratings of Oleh Tyahnybok at 12.2%, Arseniy Yatsenyuk at 11.6%, Viktor Yushchenko at 6.3%, Serhiy Tihipko at 6.2%, Viktor Yanukovych at 4.4% and Anatolii Hrytsenko at 3.7% also remain within the margin of error. Other candidates are supported by 8% of respondents, 8.7% support no candidate, and 14.5% either would not vote or are undecided.
The same trends are observed in parliamentary voting intentions in the oblast, where Batkivshchyna leads with 22.4%, followed by Svoboda at 14.9%, Front for Change at 8.3%, Our Ukraine at 5.9%, Strong Ukraine at 4.8%, the Party of Regions at 4.0%, PORA at 2.7%, Civic Position at 1.8%, UDAR at 1.5% and For Ukraine! at 1.5%. Other parties together receive 3.6%, 7.4% would not support any party, and 21.2% would not vote or are undecided.
In elections to the Lviv Oblast Council, Batkivshchyna remains in first place with 21.4% and Svoboda follows with 18.6%, with Batkivshchyna performing slightly worse and Svoboda significantly better compared to parliamentary elections. They are followed by Front for Change at 7.7%, Our Ukraine at 5.6%, Strong Ukraine at 4.5%, the Party of Regions at 3.9%, PORA at 3.0%, Civic Position at 2.0%, UDAR at 1.3% and For Ukraine! at 1.3%. Other parties receive 4.5%, 6.8% support none, and 18.6% would not vote or are undecided.
The highest levels of trust in the oblast are recorded for Oleh Tyahnybok at 47% and Yulia Tymoshenko at 46%, followed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk at 40%, Serhiy Tihipko at 29%, Anatolii Hrytsenko and Viktor Yushchenko at 27% each, and Viacheslav Kyrylenko at 26%. Yurii Kostenko is trusted by 16%, while representatives of the incumbent government close the ranking, including Mykola Azarov at 10%, Viktor Yanukovych at 9% and Volodymyr Lytvyn at 8%. Since June, Yulia Tymoshenko’s Trust Index has improved by 6 points and Viktor Yushchenko’s by 3 points, while the Trust Indices of most other politicians have declined.
Twenty-one percent of residents are satisfied with the performance of the Chair of the Regional Council, 40% are dissatisfied and 37% are undecided. The performance of the Head of the Regional State Administration is approved by 18%, disapproved by 41% and 40% are undecided. Since June, both positive and negative assessments of a possible dismissal of the Head of the Regional State Administration have increased as the share of those unable to assess the issue has declined.
In September, residents remain most concerned about unemployment, which increased from 34% to 50%, corruption, which rose from 44% to 48%, rising prices, which grew from 25% to 35%, and utility tariffs, which increased from 18% to 24%.
Ninety-four percent of respondents have a negative attitude toward the government’s decision to raise gas tariffs for households at the request of the International Monetary Fund, with two thirds believing the agreement with the IMF was reached under the Azarov government. Ninety percent also negatively assess the decision to gradually raise the retirement age for women from 55 to 60, with 76% saying the agreement was reached under the Azarov government. Only 12% support repealing the constitutional amendments adopted in 2004, while about two thirds oppose this, 13% are indifferent and 10% are undecided.

Methodology

Survey organization: Rating Group.
Survey population: adult population of Lviv Oblast aged 18 and older.
Sample size: 1,200 respondents, including 400 in the city of Lviv.
Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a structured questionnaire.
Sampling error: no more than 2.8% for values close to 50%, no more than 2.4% for values close to 30%, and no more than 1.7% for values close to 10%.
Fieldwork dates: 10–20 September 2010.