23.11.2020

Monitoring of local elections 2020: RESULTS

Aggregated party rating in local elections is the sum of party results in elections to regional councils, in Kyiv – to the city council, and in Donetsk and Luhansk regions – to district councils. Source: data from territorial election commissions and monitoring surveys by Rating Group (September–October 2020).

  • Analysis of the results of local elections showed that voter turnout in western regions was higher than in the southeastern ones. For example, while turnout on October 25 in Ternopil and Lviv regions was about 44%, in southeastern regions only about a third of voters came to the polls. As a result, the share of western regions in the total voter base increased from 27% to 31%.
  • According to the aggregated party rating in local elections, the conditional 5% threshold was passed by Servant of the People (14.5%), European Solidarity (13.7%), Opposition Platform – For Life (12.5%), For the Future (8.6%), and Batkivshchyna (8.5%). Percentages are calculated from the total number of votes cast for parties.
  • Our Land received 3.9% support overall, Svoboda – 3.3%, the Radical Party of Lyashko – 2.4%, Strength and Honor – 2.4%, Proposition – 2.2%, UDAR of Vitali Klitschko – 2.0%, Holos – 1.7%, Shariy’s Party – 1.4%, Palchevskyi’s Victory – 0.8%.
  • The combined rating of other (mostly local) parties is about 22%.
  • The total support for the five parliamentary parties in these elections was 51% (in the 2019 parliamentary elections they received 78%). At the same time, in regions where strong local parties were not present, parliamentary parties received significantly more support in local elections.
  • A comparative analysis of Rating Group polling results and election outcomes showed a fairly high accuracy of forecasts (average deviation for party results is 0.7%), and minor deviations are explained by the shift in actual turnout toward western regions and the relatively low share of youth among those who actually voted on October 25.
  • The Servant of the People party took leading positions (1st–3rd place) in Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, and Chernihiv regions.
  • Opposition Platform – For Life received high results in the southern and eastern regions, as well as in Sumy region.
  • European Solidarity took higher positions in the Halychyna regions, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Rivne, and Chernivtsi regions, and in Kyiv city.
  • The For the Future party recorded leading positions in Volyn, as well as in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, and Poltava regions.
  • Batkivshchyna received high results in Kirovohrad, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Poltava, and Chernivtsi regions.
  • The Our Land party took high positions in Luhansk, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv regions; Svoboda – in Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil; the Radical Party of Lyashko – in Chernihiv; UDAR – in Kyiv; Proposition – in Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Local parties became winners in Vinnytsia (Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman), Zakarpattia (Native Zakarpattia), Poltava (Dovira), Kharkiv (Kernes Bloc – Successful Kharkiv!), Khmelnytskyi (Simchyshyn’s Team), Cherkasy (Cherkasy Region Party), and Chernihiv (Native Home). They also held leading positions in Kherson (We Live Here!), Khmelnytskyi (For Concrete Actions), and Chernivtsi (The Only Alternative) regions.

Methodology