17.09.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE
- The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group from 12 to 15 September 2020 showed that respondents experience contrasting emotions when assessing the situation in their own cities and in the country as a whole. Thus, 56% of respondents stated that they feel hope when thinking about the local situation, while 41% at the same time feel disappointment. In contrast, when it comes to the situation in the country, 61% feel disappointment and 35% feel hope. A relatively higher share of those who feel hope in both cases is observed among younger respondents and residents of regional centers.
- Only 35% of respondents know the exact date of the local elections in Ukraine. At the same time, 43% do not know at all when the elections will take place, 19% know that they will be held sometime in October but do not know the exact date, and another 3% named other dates. Knowledge of the election date is mainly characteristic of older respondents.
- A total of 69% of respondents do not know under which electoral system the local elections on 25 October 2020 will be held. Only 13% confidently stated that they know how the voting will take place, while 18% reported partial knowledge. A relatively higher level of awareness of the electoral system is demonstrated by older respondents. Among the youngest age group (18–29 years), almost 80% do not know anything about the electoral system.
- According to the survey, 57% of respondents stated that they will definitely take part in the local elections. Another 19% are undecided (50/50), 9% said they might take part, and 15% indicated that participation is unlikely. A relatively higher readiness to participate in the elections is shown by older age groups, women, and respondents with a higher level of awareness of the election date and system.
- The study presents an aggregated rating of parties in the local elections, calculated as the sum of all political parties’ results in elections to regional councils in each oblast, and to the city council in Kyiv. Respondents chose from a list that was unique for each regional council. In total, 65 different parties were included in the aggregated rating, the vast majority of which are local parties running in one or several regional councils.
- According to the aggregated party rating in the local elections, the Servant of the People party is supported by 16% of those who have decided and intend to vote in elections to regional councils. The Opposition Platform – For Life party is supported by 11.9%, European Solidarity by 11.3%, Batkivshchyna by 8.2%, Za Maibutnie by 5.8%, the Radical Party by 4.7%, UDAR led by Vitalii Klitschko by 3.7%, Svoboda by 3.3%, the Sharii Party by 2.8%, Holos by 2.2%, Propozytsiya and Palchevskyi’s Victory by 2.1% each, Nash Krai by 2.0%, Syla i Chest by 1.5%, and Samopomich by 1.2%. The combined rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the survey is 21.2%.
- While in elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine the combined rating of the five main parties currently represented in parliament amounts to 72%, in local elections their aggregated figure is 50%. Compared to parliamentary ratings, noticeable electoral losses at the local level are observed for the Servant of the People party, with 26% at the parliamentary level versus 16% at the local level, the Opposition Platform – For Life with 17% versus 12%, European Solidarity with 16% versus 11%, Holos with 4% versus 2%, and Syla i Chest with 4% versus 2%. At the same time, growth is observed for parties such as Za Maibutnie, UDAR, and Propozytsiya.
- When assessing the areas in which local authorities have achieved the greatest success, respondents most often mentioned roads and sidewalks at 54% and parks and public squares at 36%. Improvements in public transport were mentioned by only 12%, healthcare by 9%, education and housing and utilities by 7% each, and environmental issues by 5%.
- At the same time, when speaking about the main priorities in the work of local authorities, respondents most frequently mentioned healthcare at 58%, the economy and job creation at 33%, education at 27%, and the fight against corruption at 23%.
- A total of 52% expect minor falsifications in the local elections on 25 October 2020. Another 22% believe that falsifications will be significant, while 20% do not expect them at all. Compared to the presidential elections in 2019, expectations of electoral fraud have significantly decreased.
Methodology
- Audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all regions, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas.
- Sample: representative by age, gender, and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 5000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews), telephone interviews using a computer, based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Margin of sampling error: no more than 1.4%.
- Fieldwork dates: 12–15 September 2020.
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