20.10.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (16-19 October 2020)
- The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group (16–19 October) recorded a gradual increase in positive expectations regarding local elections since the beginning of the study (early September 2020). At present, 34% of respondents believe that the situation in their city or village will improve as a result of the elections. 52% believe that nothing will change. Only 6% believe that the situation will worsen. An increase in optimism is observed across all age groups.
- 61% of respondents stated their intention to participate in the local elections. 18% are undecided (50/50), another 7% may participate, and 13% consider participation unlikely. Electoral mobilization is gradually increasing among younger and middle-aged groups.
- In the event of a worsening coronavirus situation, 51% confirmed their readiness to take part in the elections, 21% are undecided (50/50), 9% may come to polling stations, and 17% consider participation unlikely. Over the past two weeks, the number of those ready to come to polling stations even in the event of an escalation of the epidemic has increased.
- 58% of respondents said they had already decided whom to vote for, while 40% had not. Among those who stated that they would definitely come to polling stations, 73% are decided. A relatively higher level of certainty is observed among the oldest respondents.
- According to the aggregated party rating in local elections, five parties pass the conditional 5% threshold among those who are decided and have a firm intention to vote: “Servant of the People” with 16.7%, “Opposition Platform – For Life” with 13.5%, “European Solidarity” with 13.2%, “Batkivshchyna” with 8.6%, and “For the Future” with 7.4%.
- The party “Our Land” is supported by 4.0%. The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko has 3.3%, UDAR of Vitali Klitschko 2.7%, Svoboda 2.3%, the Shariy Party 1.9%, “Proposition” 1.6%, “Holos” 1.4%, “Strength and Honor” 1.2%, and “Palchevskyi’s Victory” 0.9%. The combined rating of other parties (mainly local ones) participating in the local elections and included in the study list is 21.3%.
- 48% believe that minor falsifications will occur in the local elections. 28% are convinced that they will be significant. 16% believe that there will be no falsifications. Over the past month, the number of those expecting significant falsifications has increased.
- 62% of respondents have a negative attitude toward situations where, during elections, some politicians and parties provide material assistance to voters (distributing food packages, money, funds for repairs or treatment). 19% are neutral, and 15% are positive. At the same time, only 6% personally encountered attempts at bribery, 11% know about such cases from relatives or acquaintances, and 81% had no such experience during this election campaign.
- 57% have heard about the Government’s recommendation to vote using a personal pen. 42% have not heard about it. Only one third know about the recommendation not to bring children to polling stations. 65% do not know about this recommendation, especially among those who have children under 16 years old. Despite this, 87% support such a recommendation, while only 10% hold the opposite view.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 5,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Representative error of the study: no more than 1.4%.
- Fieldwork dates: 16-19 October 2020.
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