01.10.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (25-28 September, 2020)
- The results of the third wave of the survey conducted by Rating Group on September 25–28 showed that respondents generally trust the institutions responsible for organizing local elections. In particular, 74% of respondents trust the members of polling station commissions at their place of residence, while 21% do not. 61% trust the Central Election Commission, while 35% do not. Compared to the period of the previous parliamentary elections in July 2019, trust in these institutions has increased.
- One third of respondents hope for positive changes in their cities and villages as a result of the October 25 elections. Half believe that nothing will change, and only 7% expect deterioration. The last two waves demonstrate a positive dynamic for this indicator across all age groups.
- 56% of respondents said they would definitely take part in the local elections. 20% are undecided (50/50), another 8% may take part, and 15% said their participation is unlikely. Over the last four waves, voter activity indicators have somewhat stabilized.
- According to the aggregated party rating for the local elections, five parties pass the notional 5% threshold among those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 15.5%, European Solidarity by 11.4%, Opposition Platform – For Life by 11.4%, Batkivshchyna by 8.3%, and For the Future by 6.2%.
- The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko is supported by 4.9%. Our Land and UDAR of Vitalii Klychko are each supported by 3.1%, Svoboda by 3.0%, the Sharii Party by 2.5%, Strength and Honor by 2.0%, Proposition and Holos by 1.8% each, and Palchevskyi’s Victory by 1.7%. The combined rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the study amounts to 23.4%.
- The majority of respondents, between 60% and 70%, believe that at the local level it is more important for parties to have a strong local leader rather than a well-known national one, experienced politicians rather than “new faces,” and a strong team rather than a single strong leader.
- 59% believe that socio-economic initiatives are more important for a local party than its ideological position, which is considered more important by only 14%.
- 34% believe that for a local party it is more important to support President Zelensky’s course, while 26% think it is more important to be in opposition to the current president. At the same time, for nearly 40% the factor of supporting or opposing the authorities is not important when making their choice.
- 45% believe that for a candidate for mayor or village head it is more important to address current issues. Almost the same share, 43%, are convinced that it is more important for the candidate to propose a development strategy for the locality. Notably, older respondents place greater importance on strategy, while younger respondents prioritize current issues.
- One third of respondents are ready to support the incumbent head of their locality in the elections, the same share would support another candidate, and 35% are undecided. Among those who choose the incumbent, 58% do so because they consider him or her a strong local leader, 16% because they see the incumbent as a good person, and 20% because they consider other candidates worse.
- More than 90% know who their city or village head is, and 60% have personally met the head of their locality at some point, primarily residents of rural areas.
- 47% know who the member of parliament from their constituency is, while 50% do not. Only one third have ever met the MP personally. Residents of rural areas are more likely than city dwellers to know their constituency MP and to have met him or her in person.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 5,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Representative error of the study: no more than 1.4%.
- Fieldwork dates: 25-28 September 2020.
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