29.09.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: Ternopil (September 9–17)
- The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group between September 9 and 17 among residents of Ternopil showed that 60% of respondents believe that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 29% hold the opposite view. When assessing the situation in the region, 38% said that affairs in the oblast are developing in the right direction, and the same share believe they are moving in the wrong direction, while about a quarter were unable to give an assessment.
- Only 20% of Ternopil residents believe that affairs in Ukraine as a whole are developing in the right direction, while 65% disagree with this. Similarly, 65% are dissatisfied with the performance of President V. Zelenskyi, and only 23% are satisfied. Most respondents were unable to assess the performance of the Head of the Oblast Council and the Head of the Oblast State Administration; however, among city residents there are more dissatisfied than satisfied with their work (14% are satisfied and 24% dissatisfied with the performance of Oblast Council Head V. Ovcharuk; 11% are satisfied and 33% dissatisfied with the performance of Oblast State Administration Head V. Trush).
- In the local elections on October 25, a quarter of respondents intend to support a local party, while 57% plan to support a national party, and another 18% were unable to answer. Likewise, a quarter of respondents said they would definitely vote for a local party, and another half might vote for such a party under certain circumstances, while 18% said they would not vote for a local party.
- 65% said they would definitely take part in parliamentary elections if they were held in the near future, another 13% would rather participate, while about 20% said it is unlikely or they would definitely not vote. Voter mobilization is higher among older respondents.
- The leader in the parliamentary party rating is the party “European Solidarity,” which is supported by 23.6% among those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. Among decided voters, 16.2% plan to vote for the party “Servant of the People,” and 14.6% for the party “Svoboda.” Another 7.8% would vote for “Holos,” 7.0% for “Batkivshchyna,” 5.4% for “For the Future,” 4.3% for “Strength and Honor,” and 4.0% for “Civic Position.” The ratings of other parties are below 5%, while about 13% have not yet decided.
- The anti-rating for parliamentary elections is led by the parties “Opposition Platform” and “Servant of the People,” for which about 32% of voters would under no circumstances vote. 19% would definitely not vote for “European Solidarity,” 15% for the Radical Party, 13% for “Batkivshchyna,” 11% for the Shariy Party, and 10% for UDAR. About 7–8% would not vote for “Holos,” “Svoboda,” “Ukrainian Strategy,” or “For the Future.”
- 69% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, another 11% would rather participate, while about 18% said it is unlikely or they would definitely not vote. The share of those intending to vote is higher among older respondents.
- In the rating for the Oblast Council, the parties “European Solidarity” and “Svoboda” are tied for the lead, each with 20.2% among those who intend to vote and have decided. They are followed by the party “Servant of the People,” supported by 15.4%, and the party “For the Future,” with 13.6%. On the threshold of passing the electoral barrier are “Batkivshchyna” and “Strength of the People,” with 5.1% and 4.0% respectively. Another 3.5% would vote for “Holos” and the Ukrainian Galician Party, and 2.5% for “Strength and Honor.” The ratings of other parties are below 3%, while about 17% have not yet decided.
- The anti-rating for the Oblast Council is also led by “Servant of the People” and the “Opposition Platform,” for which about one third of voters would under no circumstances vote. Another 18% would never vote for “European Solidarity,” 15% for “Batkivshchyna,” 13% for UDAR, 12% for the Radical Party, 9% for “For the Future,” and 8% for “Svoboda.” About 6–7% would not vote for the parties “Dovira,” “Holos,” “Strength of the People,” or “Strength and Honor.”
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ternopil aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender.
- Sample size: 654 respondents (margin of error no more than 3.8%).
- Survey method: personal formalised interview (face-to-face).
- Fieldwork dates: 9-17 September 2020.
.webp)
