06.12.2016

Socio-political situation in Ukraine

The sociological study “Socio-political situation in Ukraine” was conducted by two sociological services: the Center for Social and Marketing Research SOCIS and the Rating Group.

  • At the end of 2016, 69.9% of respondents described the current situation in Ukraine as tense, while another 23.2% considered it explosive. Only 5.2% said the situation in the country was stable, and 1.9% could not give a clear answer.
  • 54.3% of respondents identified the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine as the main problem requiring immediate resolution. Another 37.9% pointed to rising prices for basic goods and inflation. 37.8% said low wages and pensions need urgent attention, 33.9% pointed to utility tariffs, 27.5% to corruption in the central government, 26.9% to lack of jobs and unemployment, and 19.7% to the high cost and low quality of medical services. Smaller shares mentioned social inequality and the gap between rich and poor (12.8%), corruption in courts, police and the prosecutor’s office (12.0%), insufficient social protection (10.6%), and crime and public safety (7.5%). Only small minorities named unfavorable conditions for small and medium business (4.3%), low quality of education (2.8%), and lack of freedom and democracy (2.2%) as urgent problems.
  • Respondents showed relatively high readiness to take part in presidential elections if they were held next Sunday. 37.8% said they were fully certain they would vote, and another 34.0% said they were likely to come to the polling stations. At the same time, 25.4% stated that they would definitely not participate, and 2.9% could not answer.
  • Among all respondents, the leaders of the presidential rating were Petro Poroshenko with 9.6% and Yuliia Tymoshenko with 9.4%. Yurii Boiko was supported by 6.3%, Vadym Rabinovych by 6.0%, Oleh Liashko by 5.9%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 5.2%, and Andrii Sadovyi by 4.3%. Other candidates listed in the survey were supported by less than 3%. There was a strong demand for a hypothetical “other candidate”, with 12.1% saying they would likely support someone not listed in the questionnaire. 12.7% could not decide or refused to answer, while 21.6% said they would not participate in the elections at all.
  • A simulated presidential election based only on those who intended to vote and had made a choice produced the following results. Petro Poroshenko would receive 14.7%, Yuliia Tymoshenko 14.6%, Yurii Boiko 10.0%, Vadym Rabinovych 9.2%, Oleh Liashko 9.2%, Anatolii Hrytsenko 7.8%, Andrii Sadovyi 6.8%, Oleh Tiahnybok 3.1%, Nadiia Savchenko 2.4%, Dmytro Yarosh 2.4%, Arsenii Yatseniuk 1.1%, and Viktor Medvedchuk 1.0%. 17.7% would vote for other candidates not listed.
  • 47.2% of respondents supported holding early parliamentary elections, while 44.9% opposed this idea and 8.0% were undecided.
  • 36.3% said they were fully ready to participate in parliamentary elections if they were held next Sunday, and 34.5% said they were rather ready to vote. 25.2% were not confident they would participate, and 4.0% could not answer or refused to respond.
  • Among all respondents, 10.0% would vote for Batkivshchyna, 9.3% for Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity”, 7.3% for the Opposition Bloc, 6.4% for Samopomich, 5.8% for Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party, 5.7% for For Life, 4.8% for Civic Position, 3.2% for Svoboda, and 2.8% for the Movement of New Forces. Other parties had less than 2%. 12.3% were undecided or refused to answer, and 22.4% said they would not vote at all.
  • A simulated parliamentary election among those who intended to vote and had chosen a party gave the following results. Batkivshchyna would receive 15.5%, Petro Poroshenko Bloc 14.1%, Opposition Bloc 11.2%, Samopomich 9.8%, Radical Party 9.1%, For Life 8.8%, Civic Position 7.1%, Svoboda 4.9%, and the Movement of New Forces 4.1%. Other parties would receive less than 2%.
  • 20.1% of respondents named Yurii Boiko as the leader of the current opposition, 14.5% named Yuliia Tymoshenko, 11.5% Oleh Liashko, 7.7% Vadym Rabinovych, 7.5% Mikheil Saakashvili, 4.1% Anatolii Hrytsenko, 4.0% Andrii Sadovyi, and 2.2% Oleh Tiahnybok. 25.1% could not answer or refused to respond.
  • 60.7% said they would vote in favor of joining the European Union if a referendum were held soon, 23.8% would vote against, 9.2% would not participate, and 6.3% were undecided.
  • If a referendum on joining NATO were held, 47.2% would vote in favor, 33.6% against, 11.0% would not participate, and 8.3% were undecided.
  • When asked whether they would support the Maidan today, 10.2% said they would regularly participate, 21.8% would not participate personally but would morally support the protesters, 13.5% would occasionally join protests, and 9.2% would support financially without participating. At the same time, 31.9% said they were against the Maidan, 6.7% were indifferent, and 6.8% could not answer.
  • 16.9% believe another Maidan is highly likely in the near future, 38.3% consider it quite likely, 27.8% think it is unlikely, and 9.5% see it as almost impossible, while 7.6% were undecided.
  • At the same time, 44.1% do not support the idea of a new Maidan, 16.2% would support it and personally participate, 30.8% would support it without personal participation, and 8.9% were undecided.
  • 59.5% consider participation in elections the most acceptable way to defend their position. 21.1% would turn to protests, 9.5% to civil disobedience actions, 3.8% would defend their position with weapons, and 3.8% would do so by joining an opposition party. 18.0% said none of these forms suited them, and 6.6% could not answer.
  • 46.3% believe the November protests in Kyiv were organized and paid for by political forces, 33.7% think they were genuine protests of ordinary people, and 20.1% could not evaluate them.
  • 47.0% consider continued diplomatic efforts the best way to resolve the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. 20.8% favor a referendum on the status of the occupied territories, 12.7% support isolating the territories and freezing the conflict, 9.8% support military mobilization to regain them, 2.1% propose other solutions, and 7.7% were undecided.

Methodology

  • Sample: 4000 respondents.
  • Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
  • Inaccuracy no more than 1.5%.
  • Fieldwork dates: November 24 - December 2, 2016