11.12.2018
Assessment of threats and attitude to the introduction of martial law in Ukraine
- According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, the majority of respondents (62%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country with respect to Ukraine. Twenty-six percent of respondents hold the opposite view, while another one in ten have not decided.
- Fifty-eight percent of respondents believe that Russia committed an act of military aggression against Ukraine during the incident involving Ukrainian and Russian military vessels in the Sea of Azov, which took place on November 25, 2018. Twenty-two percent hold the opposite opinion, while another one fifth were undecided.
- At the same time, only one third of respondents support the decision to impose martial law for 30 days in certain regions, while almost 60% do not support it.
- The decision to impose martial law is supported by only half of those who consider Russia an aggressor. The decision is relatively more supported by residents of Western Ukraine (44%) and Central Ukraine (39%), less so in the South (24%), and least of all in the East (14%). It is more often supported by respondents who speak Ukrainian at home (45%) than by those who speak Russian (17%), and is somewhat more supported by men (38%) than by women (28%).
- At the same time, only 14% support the decision to impose martial law for 60 days and across the entire territory of Ukraine, while 76% do not support it.
- Meanwhile, the majority of respondents (69%) consider the introduction of martial law to be a delayed decision and are convinced that it should have been introduced back in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of hostilities in Donbas.
- Almost two thirds of respondents allow for the possibility that President Petro Poroshenko intended to impose martial law in Ukraine for 60 days in order to postpone the presidential elections.
- At the same time, most respondents believe that the introduction of martial law will draw the attention of the international community to the Ukrainian–Russian conflict (60%) and will contribute to the introduction of additional international sanctions against Russia (55%).
- However, only 31% of respondents believe that the introduction of martial law will help improve the country’s defense capability.
- Overall, 22% assess the likelihood of a full-scale ground military invasion of Ukraine by Russia as high, 29% as medium, and 17% as low. One fifth believe that there is no threat at all, while one tenth were undecided. A higher level of invasion threat is perceived by respondents in the western and central parts of the country, and a lower level in the south and east.
Methodology
- Audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age, gender, region, and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of sampling error does not exceed 2.2%.
- Fieldwork dates: December 4-10, 2018.
.webp)
