22.05.2012
Party ratings in Verkhovna Rada elections: May 2012
- According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in early May 2012, 34% of respondents would definitely take part in them, and another 34% would rather take part. The highest level of voter mobilization is recorded in the West, and the lowest in the South, East and Donbas of the country. The highest mobilization is among supporters of Batkivshchyna, Svoboda, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU).
- RESULTS:
If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in early May 2012, the joint list of Batkivshchyna and Front of Changes would win. Thus, 25.6% of respondents (among those who would take part in the elections) would vote for the unified list of Batkivshchyna and Front of Changes, 22% for the Party of Regions, 9.2% for UDAR of V. Klychko, 7.6% for the Communist Party, and 4.4% for Svoboda. Another 3.8% of voters would support N. Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!”, 2.4% would support Civic Position. All other parties together – over 6%, undecided – 19%. - The full report can be viewed and downloaded on our Facebook page.
- TRENDS:
Over the past two months, citizens’ willingness to participate in elections has decreased. In particular, the share of respondents who would definitely take part in parliamentary elections fell from 45% to 34%. After the merger of Batkivshchyna and Front of Changes, the number of undecided voters also slightly increased (from 17.7% to 19%). - The largest losses were suffered by Batkivshchyna and Front of Changes, whose combined rating fell from 30% to 25.6% since February. Most of these losses occurred in Batkivshchyna’s electorate, primarily in favor of N. Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!”, whose rating increased from 1% to 3.8%.
- The rating of the Party of Regions has practically not changed over the last two months.
- UDAR also gained support – from 7.2% to 9.2%, as a result of which it took third place in the rating, overtaking the Communist Party. The positions of the Communists themselves remain stable, showing slight growth trends.
- The Svoboda party continues to demonstrate its traditional stability – over the past six months its rating has not fallen below 4% and has not risen above 5%.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error (at 0.95 confidence):
– near 50%: no more than 2.2%
– near 30%: no more than 2.0%
– near 10%: no more than 1.3%
– near 5%: no more than 1.0% - Fieldwork period: May 5–14, 2012.
- Regional breakdown:
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv
- South: AR Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk
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