Ukrainians do not want a BUT-PR coalition, but this is the format of the majority they predict in the Verkhovna Rada of the new convocation

Press

22.10.2009

Ukrainians do not want a BUT-PR coalition, but this is the format of the majority they predict in the Verkhovna Rada of the new convocation

According to a nationwide survey conducted in October 2009, a plurality of Ukrainians (39.6%) do not believe that a coalition of parliamentary factions with more than 226 MPs will be formed in the Verkhovna Rada of the current convocation. Only 27.2% believe that such a coalition will be created, while 33.2% were unable to decide. Skepticism about the possibility of forming an effective parliamentary coalition is strongest in Donbas, the Center, and the West, while respondents in the North are the most optimistic. Among supporters of political parties, those more likely to believe such a coalition will be formed are supporters of BYuT, Nasha Ukraina, and the Lytvyn Bloc, whereas supporters of the Communist Party of Ukraine and the Yatsenyuk Bloc tend not to believe this.
For a relative plurality of Ukrainians (18.1%), the most optimal coalition in the new Verkhovna Rada would be an alliance of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party of Ukraine, and the Lytvyn Bloc. The second most preferred option is an alliance between the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Yatsenyuk Bloc, supported by 11.7% of respondents. An alliance between the Party of Regions and BYuT is supported by 8.5%, while 8.3% support a coalition between the Party of Regions and the Yatsenyuk Bloc. At the same time, the most likely coalition in the new Verkhovna Rada, according to a relative plurality (15.5%), is an alliance between the Party of Regions and BYuT.
Among party supporters, views differ markedly. Forty-three percent of Party of Regions supporters and 60% of Communist Party of Ukraine supporters believe the best coalition would consist of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party of Ukraine, and the Lytvyn Bloc. Only 11% of Party of Regions supporters think that an alliance with BYuT would be the best option, yet 19% believe that such a coalition will in fact be formed. Only 14% of BYuT supporters support an alliance with the Party of Regions, although 21% expect such a coalition to emerge. Thus, both BYuT and Party of Regions supporters generally oppose an alliance between these two forces, yet a relative plurality in both camps believe that this is what will actually happen in the new Verkhovna Rada.
Most BYuT supporters (36%) believe their party should ally with the Yatsenyuk Bloc, and the same view is held by most Yatsenyuk Bloc supporters (35%). At the same time, 21% of BYuT supporters favor a return to the previous coalition format of BYuT, the Lytvyn Bloc, and Nasha Ukraina. Meanwhile, 18% of Yatsenyuk Bloc supporters favor an alliance with the Party of Regions, a position also shared by 19% of Party of Regions supporters.

Methodology

Fieldwork dates: 3–12 October 2009.
Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
Age: 18+.
Methodology: face-to-face standardized interviews.
Margin of error: for values close to 50% — no more than 3%; close to 30% — no more than 2.6%; close to 10% — no more than 1.8%.
Regional breakdown:
- West — Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi;
- Center — Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy;
- North — Kyiv city, Kyiv oblast, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv; South — AR Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol;
- East — Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv;
- Donbas — Donetsk and Luhansk.