14.06.2017
Economic and political situation in Ukraine through the eyes of citizens
- According to a Rating Group survey conducted in May 2017, more than 60% of Ukrainians reported that their material situation had worsened over the past year, 30% said it had not changed, and only 6% said it had improved. Another 2% were undecided. More than 60% said they are unable to pay utility bills, while 35% said they can afford them. Almost all respondents (97%) said they feel the impact of rising consumer prices.
- When asked about the causes of the country’s socio-economic situation, 65% blamed the incompetence and corruption of the current authorities, 54% cited the war in the East, 31% the inability of parliament to pass needed laws, and 28% corruption and incompetence of previous governments. In the West, war and the failures of previous authorities are more often blamed; in the South and East, respondents more often blame the current government, parliament, lack of political compromise, external interference, and weak public support for reforms.
- Most Ukrainians describe the country’s condition in strongly negative terms.
85% believe Ukraine is in a state of chaos, 75% say it is in a state of collapse, while only 44% think it is in a state of change, 21% in development, and 17% in consolidation. - 52% support dissolving parliament and holding early parliamentary and presidential elections, while nearly 40% oppose this, and 10% are undecided.
- Parliamentary voting intentions: Among those who plan to vote and have decided on a party:
- Fatherland (Batkivshchyna) – 13.2%
- BPP Solidarity – 11.3%
- Opposition Bloc – 10.4%
- Radical Party – 8.9%
- For Life – 8.2%
- Civic Position – 7.6%
- Self-Reliance (Samopomich) – 7.1%
- Svoboda – 6.4%
- UKROP, Agrarian Party, People’s Control – 2.3% each
- New Forces Movement – 2.2%
- If their preferred party did not run, many would shift to Fatherland (5.5%), Self-Reliance, Radical Party, and Svoboda (around 3.7% each), while 45% would be undecided.28.6% say they would never vote for BPP Solidarity, followed by the Opposition Bloc (15.5%), Radical Party (7.3%), and Fatherland (6.5%).
- Presidential race: If presidential elections were held the following Sunday (among decided voters):
- Yulia Tymoshenko – 15.2%
- Petro Poroshenko – 11.6%
- Oleh Liashko – 8.5%
- Yuriy Boyko – 8.5%
- Vadym Rabinovych – 7.8%
- Anatoliy Hrytsenko – 7.2%
- Andriy Sadovyi – 6.6%
- Second-round simulations show Tymoshenko beating Poroshenko (32% vs 24%), Tymoshenko beating Boyko (36% vs 28%), and Tymoshenko beating Liashko (33% vs 21%). Turnout in these scenarios would be low, with around one third saying they would not vote.
- Who can fix the country? Only small minorities believe any politician can:
- Pull Ukraine out of the economic crisis: Tymoshenko 13%, Rabinovych 9%, Liashko 8%, Poroshenko 7%. One third believe no one can.
- Stop the war: Poroshenko and Tymoshenko 8% each; 38% say no one can.
- Unite the country: Tymoshenko 10%, Poroshenko 8%; one third say no one can.
- Protest potential: 70% believe the current situation could lead to mass nationwide protests similar to 2004 or 2013.
41% support launching protests immediately, 47% oppose, and 12% are undecided.
Nearly 40% say they would personally join protests if they began soon. Protest readiness is highest in the West and among supporters of Self-Reliance, the Radical Party, and For Life. - Land reform: If a referendum were held on lifting the ban on selling agricultural land, about 75% would vote against, 20% in favor, and 7% would abstain or be undecided.
If land sales were allowed, 40% say they might join protests, while half would not.
Methodology
- Respondents: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and place of residence.
- Total sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2,2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 19-25 May 2017
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