22.09.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: CHERNIVTSI
- The results of the survey conducted by Rating Group between 18–20 September 2020 among residents of Chernivtsi show that respondents assess the situation in the city and in Ukraine with equal pessimism. Only 12% of respondents say that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 77% believe the opposite. Regarding Ukraine as a whole, only 16% consider the country’s development to be moving in the right direction, whereas 70% say it is moving in the wrong direction.
- A total of 65% of respondents stated that they will definitely take part in the local elections. Another 15% are undecided (50/50), 4% say they might participate, and 16% say that participation is unlikely.
- In the ranking of political forces in the elections to the Chernivtsi City Council, the leading positions are held by Servant of the People with 14.2% among those who have decided and intend to vote, Ridne Misto with 12.2%, Yedyna Alternatyva with 10.7%, and the Chernivtsi Residents party with 10.6%. European Solidarity is supported by 9.0%, Proposition by 8.2%, Batkivshchyna by 7.0%, Opposition Platform – For Life by 4.7%, and Holos by 3.0%. The ratings of other political forces are below 3%, while around 9% of respondents remain undecided. Over time, support has increased for Ridne Misto, the Chernivtsi Residents party, Proposition, and Yedyna Alternatyva, while Servant of the People and Batkivshchyna have lost support.
- Among mayoral candidates, the leading positions are held by Vitalii Mykhailishyn (Ridne Misto) with 22.1% among those who have decided and intend to vote, and Oleksii Kaspruk (Proposition) with 18.9%. Another 15.0% are ready to vote for Mykola Fedoruk (Chernivtsi Residents party), 11.0% for Roman Klichuk (Yedyna Alternatyva), and 10.2% for Vitalii Druhanovskyi (Servant of the People). The ratings of other candidates are below 5%. Around 14–15% of respondents remain undecided. Over the course of the month, support has increased for V. Mykhailishyn, R. Klichuk, and V. Druhanovskyi.
- Second-round modeling produced the following results. In a matchup between V. Druhanovskyi and O. Kaspruk, Kaspruk would narrowly win with 35% versus 30%. In a contest between O. Kaspruk and M. Fedoruk, the candidate from the Chernivtsi Residents party would prevail with 39% versus 29%. In a matchup between V. Druhanovskyi and R. Klichuk, the candidate from Yedyna Alternatyva would win with 34% versus 22%. In a contest between R. Klichuk and M. Fedoruk, Fedoruk would win with 39% versus 31%. In a matchup between R. Klichuk and O. Kaspruk, there is currently no clear winner, with 35% versus 33% in favor of the Yedyna Alternatyva candidate.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of the city of Chernivtsi aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age and gender.
- Sample size: 1200 respondents.
- Survey method: face-to-face structured interviews.
- Margin of sampling error: no more than 2.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 18–20 September 2020.
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