20.10.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: Odesa
- The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group during 9–14 October among residents of Odesa showed that Odesa residents assess the situation in the city somewhat more positively than the situation in the country as a whole. Thus, 75% believe that affairs in the country are developing in the wrong direction, while only 12% think they are moving in the right direction. With regard to the city, 28% believe that affairs are moving in the right direction, while 57% think they are developing in the wrong direction.
- 21% are satisfied with the performance of President V. Zelenskyi, while 67% are dissatisfied. More than half of respondents are satisfied with the performance of the Mayor of Odesa, H. Trukhanov (53%), while 33% are dissatisfied. Almost 60% of respondents do not mind H. Trukhanov becoming mayor again, while 37% believe the city needs a new mayor.
- 61% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, another 18% are hesitating whether to participate, 5% may take part, and 15% are unlikely to vote. Voter mobilization is relatively higher among older respondents.
- In the rating for the Odesa City Council, the Trust the Deeds party is leading with 36.2% among those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. It is followed by the Opposition Platform – For Life party with 19.4%, Servant of the People with 12.3%, European Solidarity with 7.2%, the Ukrainian Maritime Party of S. Kivalov with 6.3%, and the Shariy Party with 5.9%. The rating of other parties is below 3%. 14% have not decided.
- When choosing a political force in the city council elections, 25% are more likely to support a well-known national party, while 61% are more likely to support a local party, even if it runs only in the city or region.
- Among mayoral candidates, Hennadii Trukhanov is the leader with 50.1% among those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. 10.6% are ready to support Mykola Skoryk, 8.8% Oleh Filimonov, 7.9% Serhii Kivalov, 5.9% Petro Obukhov, 4.4% Eduard Hurvits, and 3.2% Yevhen Chervonenko. The ratings of other candidates are below 2%. About 14% of respondents have not decided whom they would vote for.
- Modeling of a second round of the mayoral elections showed that if H. Trukhanov were to face other potential candidates, the incumbent mayor would win. In a matchup with E. Hurvits the result would be 68% versus 14%, with S. Kivalov 62% versus 16%, with P. Obukhov 65% versus 12%, with M. Skoryk 59% versus 18%, and with O. Filimonov 64% versus 17%.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Odessa aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender.
- Sample size: 1,200 respondents.
- Survey method: face-to-face formalised interviews.
- Research representativeness error: no more than 2.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 9-14 October 2020.
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