28.09.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: TERNOPIL
- The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group on 24 September 2020 among residents of Ternopil showed that Serhii Nadal (Svoboda) holds the leading position among candidates for mayor of the city, with 75.6% among those who have decided and intend to vote. The ratings of other candidates are significantly lower. Thus, 5.4% are ready to cast their votes for Viktor Ovcharuk (European Solidarity), 5.1% for Ivan Sorokolit (Syla Liudei), 4.6% for Viktor Hevko (Servant of the People), 3.7% for Leonid Bytsiura (Batkivshchyna), and 3.3% for Iryna Yaremchuk (Ukrainian Galician Party). The ratings of other candidates are below 1%. About 9% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.
- Modeling of the second round of the mayoral election showed that if S. Nadal and other potential candidates were to advance to it, the incumbent mayor would win. In a matchup with I. Sorokolit, the result would be 83% versus 10%, with V. Ovcharuk – 81% versus 11%, and with L. Bytsiura – 82% versus 9%.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ternopil aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender.
- Sample size: 1,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Research representativeness error: no more than 3.1%.
- Fieldwork dates: 24 September 2020.
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