06.07.2021
Social and political mood of the population (30 June – 3 July 2021)
- A survey conducted by Rating Group from June 30 to July 3, 2021, shows that only a quarter of respondents (26%) believe the country is moving in the right direction, while 64% view the direction as wrong and 11% were unable to answer. Positive assessments of Ukraine’s trajectory are more common among younger respondents and residents of the West and Centre.
- In terms of trust in political figures, Volodymyr Zelensky leads the rankings: 46% trust him and 52% do not. Yulia Tymoshenko is trusted by 30% and not trusted by 68%; Yuriy Boyko is trusted by 25% and not trusted by 58%; Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 24% and not trusted by 75%. Viktor Medvedchuk receives 16% trust and 70% distrust. Denys Shmyhal is trusted by 16%, distrusted by 52%, and 28% said they had not heard of him.
- Parliamentary preferences are headed by Servant of the People, supported by 24.9% of those who intend to vote and have decided on a party. European Solidarity receives 13.5%, Opposition Platform – For Life 12.8%, and Batkivshchyna 12.3%. Support for other political forces is significantly lower: Strength and Honour stands at 4.8%, the Radical Party at 4.7%, Groysman’s Ukrainian Strategy at 4.5%, Murayev’s Nashi at 4.3%, UDAR at 4.1%, and the Shariy Party at 3.7%. No other party reaches 3%.
- If presidential elections were held in the near future, Zelensky would receive 29.1% among those intending to vote and who have made their choice. Poroshenko would receive 13.4%, Boyko 12.5%, Tymoshenko 11.3%, Smeshko 8.7%, Murayev 5.5%, Groysman 4.6%, and Lyashko 3.4%. Support for all others falls below 3%.
- Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential race, Zelensky and Tymoshenko are the most desired candidates to appear on the ballot, supported by 34% and 22% respectively. Boyko is named by 20%, Poroshenko by 18%, Groysman by 15%, Smeshko by 14%, and 10% would like to see Murayev in the candidate list.
- Poroshenko has the highest anti-rating: 45% say they would never vote for him under any circumstances. Boyko’s anti-rating is 36%, Tymoshenko’s 32%, Zelensky’s 27%, and Lyashko’s 24%. Around one in six would never vote for Yatsenyuk, Tyahnybok, or Murayev.
- Second-round presidential simulations show Zelensky defeating all major competitors. In a Zelensky–Poroshenko matchup, the result would be 65% versus 35% among those who intend to vote and have chosen a candidate. Against Tymoshenko, Zelensky would win 61% to 39%, and against Boyko 66% to 34%.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Sample size: 2,500 respondents.
- The margin of error for the study with a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 30 June – 3 July 2021
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