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Socio-Political Attitudes of Residents of Ivano-Frankivsk
03.12.2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group between November 16 and 24, 2019 among residents of Ivano-Frankivsk, 76% of respondents believe that the direction in which the city is developing is correct. Only 14% hold the opposite view, while 10% were undecided. Assessments of the situation in the country as a whole are more pessimistic: 29% believe that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, 51% believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 21% were undecided. In year-on-year dynamics, positive assessments increased in both cases.
- Among key national politicians, President Volodymyr Zelensky leads the trust rankings. 40% trust him, while 47% do not. Sviatoslav Vakarchuk is trusted by 30% and not trusted by 53%. Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 19% and not trusted by 69%. Yuliia Tymoshenko is trusted by 15% and not trusted by 73%. Yurii Boyko is trusted by only 5%, not trusted by 67%, while 17% do not know him at all. The President enjoys relatively higher trust among younger respondents, while other politicians are more trusted by older respondents.
- Among central government institutions, residents evaluate the performance of President Zelensky somewhat more positively: 41% are satisfied, 43% are dissatisfied, and 17% were undecided. Only 23% are satisfied with the work of Parliament, while 56% are dissatisfied and 21% could not assess it. 22% are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Oleksii Honcharuk, 45% are dissatisfied, and 34% were unable to assess. Younger and more affluent respondents were more likely than others to give positive evaluations of central authorities.
- An absolute majority of residents are satisfied with the performance of Ivano-Frankivsk Mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv (91%). 67% are satisfied with the work of the City Council, 16% are dissatisfied, and 17% were unable to assess its performance.
- Among key areas of city life, respondents rated public transport most positively: 73% are satisfied, 20% are dissatisfied. Assessments of other sectors are less optimistic. 47% are satisfied with educational institutions, 29% are dissatisfied, and 24% were undecided. 48% are satisfied with municipal services, while 46% are dissatisfied. Medical institutions received the lowest ratings, with 35% satisfied and 53% dissatisfied. Older and less affluent respondents more often evaluated public transport positively, while younger and wealthier respondents gave higher ratings to education and healthcare.
- 74% of respondents believe that Mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv fulfilled his pre-election promises. Only 9% disagree, while 17% were unable to answer.
- 76% of respondents expressed clear readiness to participate in mayoral and city council elections if they were held in the near future. The leading political force in municipal elections is the Svoboda party, supported by nearly half of decided voters. 21% would vote for the “Servant of the People” party, 8% for “European Solidarity”, 6.8% for “Holos”, and 5.2% for “Batkivshchyna”. Support for other parties does not exceed 2%, while one in five respondents remains undecided.
- Ruslan Martsinkiv is the clear leader in mayoral electoral preferences, supported by 83.3% of decided voters. Oleksandr Shevchenko would receive 3.9%, Volodymyr Merinov 2.3%, while support for other candidates is below 2%. 6–7% of respondents remain undecided.
- Among key priorities for city authorities, residents most often identified healthcare institutions (41%). About one third believe that housing and utility services and road quality should be priorities. One quarter pointed to the construction of a new bridge in the Pasichna district or improvements in education. One in five named anti-corruption efforts, public transport quality, and waste collection and disposal. Between 10% and 16% identified job creation, investment attraction, security, and social protection of low-income groups as priorities. Older respondents more often prioritized healthcare and utilities, while younger respondents emphasized roads, anti-corruption, and transport.
- Sidewalks and residential courtyard areas were most frequently cited as a success of the current mayor (58%). 40% named public transport quality, 36% road quality, and 31% renovation of parks and green spaces. 17–18% cited street lighting and education, while 10% pointed to housing and utility services.
- The cost of utility services was identified as the city’s most serious problem (41%). 27–28% cited traffic congestion and poor road conditions. 22% mentioned stray animals and drug addiction/alcoholism. Between 10% and 16% pointed to littering, chaotic high-rise construction, low professional standards among medical staff, corruption, lack of sports and playgrounds, poor housing conditions, environmental issues, and unemployment.
- 56% of respondents reported high-quality renovations of residential courtyard areas in their neighborhoods, 33% had not noticed such changes, and 11% said renovations had been carried out but were of poor quality.
- 53% consider the construction of a new bridge in Pasichna a problem, while 23% do not see it as a major issue. Among those who consider it problematic, 45% believe the issue is being addressed, while 41% disagree.
- 42% are personally concerned about high-rise construction in the city center, 30% do not see it as a major issue, and 24% do not see it as a problem at all. Among those who consider it problematic, half believe the issue is not being resolved.
- 55% consider traffic congestion a serious problem, 28% consider it insignificant, and 15% do not view it as a problem. Half of those concerned about congestion believe the issue is not being addressed.
- 54% stated they are well informed about the planned incorporation of nearby villages and settlements into Ivano-Frankivsk under decentralization and the formation of an amalgamated territorial community (ATC). 28% had heard something about it, while 16% knew nothing. 57% believe this process will create new development opportunities, while 18% believe it will worsen the situation and become an economic burden.
- One third of respondents reported that close relatives are currently working abroad. 65% reported otherwise. 20% plan to seek employment abroad next year, while 76% do not. Intentions to work abroad are more common among respondents under 35 years old.
Monitoring of Public Sentiment in Ukraine (November 20–24, 2019)
28.11.2019
- According to the results of the survey conducted by the Rating Group during November 20–24, 2019, 43% of respondents believe that reforms in the country should be implemented gradually. At the same time, 30% are convinced that changes should be rapid and radical, while 18% of respondents believe reforms should be suspended until the situation in the country stabilizes. Support for rapid transformations is relatively higher among residents of the Central region, younger respondents, and voters of the “Holos” party. Nevertheless, even within these groups, the majority still support a gradual approach to reforms.
- 53% of respondents believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky is more effective than former President Petro Poroshenko. The opposite view is held by 15%, while 22% believe that nothing has changed significantly. Comparative assessments of other central government institutions are less optimistic. In particular, 34% consider the current Verkhovna Rada to be more effective than the previous convocation, 32% see no change, and 17% believe it is less effective. Only 27% consider the government led by Oleksii Honcharuk to be more effective than the government of Volodymyr Groysman. Another 30% report no change, 19% consider it worse, and 24% were unable to provide an assessment. The most critical evaluations of the effectiveness of central authorities come from supporters of the “European Solidarity” party.
- Nearly two thirds of respondents believe that President Zelensky needs between one and three years to demonstrate tangible and effective results of his work. Fourteen percent are willing to wait five years or more, while 8% expect results within six months. Seventeen percent believe that he will not be able to demonstrate effective results at all.
- About half of respondents believe that the Government and the Verkhovna Rada also need between one and three years to deliver effective outcomes. Around 10% are willing to wait five years or longer, while 10–13% expect results within six months. Every fourth or fifth respondent believes that the current Government and Parliament are incapable of changing the situation in the country.
- The leader in electoral preferences remains the “Servant of the People” party, supported by nearly 45% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. 12.7% support the “Opposition Platform – For Life” party, 9.6% – “European Solidarity”, 8.5% – “Batkivshchyna”, and 4.4% – “Holos”. Support for other political forces does not exceed 3%. Approximately 12% of respondents remain undecided.
Dynamics of Attitudes Toward the Holodomor of 1932–33
19.11.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, 82% of citizens believe that the Holodomor of 1932–33 was a genocide of the Ukrainian people. 11% do not support this statement, while 7% are undecided. Compared to the previous year, the share of those who unequivocally agree with this statement has slightly increased.
- Clear regional differences are observed: 95% of residents in the West, 87% in the Center, 72% in the South, and 61% in the East agree that the Holodomor was a genocide. Rural residents are somewhat more inclined to support this view than urban residents. No significant differences are observed by age or education level. At the same time, in ideological terms, those who regret the collapse of the USSR are less likely to support this statement. Nevertheless, even within this group, a relative majority still agree with recognizing the Holodomor as a genocide of the Ukrainian people.
- 73% of respondents said they plan to light a candle on the Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Holodomor in memory of those who died of starvation this year. 20% said they do not plan to do so. Compared to the previous year, the share of those intending to light a candle has slightly increased.
- The candle-lighting initiative enjoys somewhat higher support in the West and Center (87% and 74%, respectively). At the same time, a substantial share of respondents in the South (68%) and East (54%) also said they would participate in this commemoration.
- The initiative resonates more strongly among older respondents than among younger ones. It is also somewhat more often supported by those who do not regret the collapse of the USSR. Accordingly, an overwhelming majority of those who recognize the Holodomor of 1932–33 as a genocide plan to take part. Notably, about one-third of those who do not support the genocide thesis also said they intend to light a candle of remembrance.
Taxes and entrepreneurship: assessments and expectations
12.11.2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group, 38% of respondents said they would like to start their own business. 10% stated that they already own a business. At the same time, half of respondents expressed no desire to engage in entrepreneurship. The highest demand for starting one’s own business is observed among men, the youngest and more affluent respondents, as well as those employed in the private sector.
- Among recent government initiatives aimed at regulating business, the most supported is the adoption of legislation to combat schemes used by large businesses to move money abroad and evade taxes (74%). About two thirds support the introduction of cashback (refunds to consumers if a seller does not issue a fiscal receipt), as well as the creation of an app similar to Privat24 or Monobank that would allow paying all taxes via smartphone. More than half support initiatives to expand the use of cash registers (RRO/PPO), introduce large fines for selling goods without a receipt, and allow receiving an electronic receipt instead of a paper one. About 40% support the abolition of the tax police and creation of a Bureau of Financial Investigations, the introduction of one-time asset declaration (at a 9–10% rate) for undeclared assets and funds, and the introduction of a separate tax for entrepreneurs in the IT sector. At the same time, among those who run a business or want to start one, initiatives such as cashback, fines for not issuing receipts, and expanding the use of cash registers are more often opposed than supported.
- Half of respondents believe that expanding the use of cash registers (RRO/PPO) is primarily about bringing order to tax compliance. Meanwhile, 38% view this step as pressure on small businesses. This latter view is strongly supported among those who already own a business.
- 79% believe that taxes contribute to Ukraine’s development. 74% are convinced that strengthening tax compliance control will improve Ukraine’s economic situation. 68% believe that timely tax payment ensures a decent pension in the future, and the same share support the statement that strict criminal liability should be introduced for tax evasion. At the same time, at least two thirds believe that tax levels in Ukraine are very high. This view is most strongly supported by business owners. Among this group, there is the lowest support for introducing strict criminal liability for tax evasion and for the claim that timely tax payment guarantees a decent future pension.
- 47% believe that the main share of taxes should primarily be directed to the social sphere (healthcare, education, pensions, subsidies). 39% believe that taxes should primarily be used to reform and develop the economy and build new infrastructure.
- More than 70% are convinced that taxes should be increased for oligarchs and large businesses. In contrast, opinions regarding sole proprietors (FOPs), small businesses, and employees are the opposite: more than 70% favor keeping taxes unchanged or reducing them for these groups. Regarding medium-sized businesses, opinions are split: 25% support tax increases, 30% support tax reductions, and about the same share favor no changes. Entrepreneurs and those who want to start a business tend to support tax reductions for all business categories, except oligarchs.
- 85% support strengthening liability for tax evasion for oligarchs and large businesses. 58% support this initiative for medium-sized businesses. For small businesses, opinions are divided: about 40% support stricter penalties, while about the same share oppose them. Opposition is higher among those who own a business.
- 60% have encountered situations where a seller did not issue any receipt for purchased goods or services (29% often, 31% occasionally), while 38% have not encountered this. Such situations are more common among young people and business owners.
- Only 13% reported receiving “envelope wages” (undeclared cash payments) over the past year; 85% did not have such experience. Reports of envelope wages are more common among young and middle-aged respondents, those seeking to start a business, and those employed in the private sector (in the latter group, 31%).
- Half of respondents know the amount of taxes they pay monthly on their salary/income; nearly 30% do not know; one in five said they do not receive salary/income. Awareness is higher among younger and middle-aged, higher-income respondents, entrepreneurs, and those seeking to start a business.
- Among state institutions, respondents trust the Army and the President the most (over 60%). Trust is also relatively high in the Government (42%), Verkhovna Rada (41%), and Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) (37%). Distrust prevails toward most other institutions: Police (trust 32%, distrust 53%), National Bank of Ukraine (28% / 45%), State Customs Service (21% / 55%), State Tax Service (21% / 52%), Ministry of Finance (18% / 52%). The lowest trust is in the courts (15% trust, 66% distrust) and the prosecutor’s office (14% / 70%).
- Army reform is evaluated relatively better: 31% rate it positively, 23% neutrally, 23% say they know nothing about it, and 14% negatively. Police reform is also rated relatively better: 18% positive, 25% neutral, one third negative. The most negative evaluations are given to judicial and prosecutorial reforms (32–35% negative, 21% neutral, 9–10% positive, and about a quarter know nothing about them). Awareness of reforms in the SBU, customs, and tax services is lower—about 30% know nothing about changes in these institutions; 10–13% rate them positively, 21–22% neutrally, and 24–25% negatively.
Attitudes of Ukrainians towards world leaders
11.11.2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group, among leaders of other countries Ukrainians have the most positive attitude toward the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko: 66% view him positively and only 15% negatively.
- Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is viewed positively by 60% of respondents and negatively by 17%.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda is viewed positively by 48%, negatively by 9%; 18% do not know this politician and 27% were undecided.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron is viewed positively by 39%, negatively by 17%; 15% do not know him and 29% were undecided.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is viewed positively by 38%, negatively by 6%; 30% do not know him and 30% could not assess.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is viewed positively by 33%, negatively by 11%; 27% do not know him and 30% were undecided.
US President Donald Trump is viewed positively by 30%, negatively by 42%, while 25% were undecided.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is viewed positively by 28%, negatively by 20%; 22% do not know him and 30% could not assess. - Ukrainians have the most negative attitude toward the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin: 71% view him negatively, only 15% positively, and 12% could not express an opinion.
- In dynamics over the past year and a half, attitudes toward A. Merkel, V. Putin, A. Lukashenko, and E. Macron have remained largely unchanged. Attitudes toward A. Duda have somewhat improved, while views of Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have worsened.
- Regional differences are observed: in the South and East, attitudes are somewhat more positive toward A. Lukashenko, R. Erdoğan, and especially V. Putin. In the West, respondents are more favorable toward A. Duda, J. Trudeau, and D. Trump. By age, A. Lukashenko enjoys notably higher support among the oldest respondents, while E. Macron, B. Johnson, and D. Trump have more supporters among younger age groups.
- By income level, less affluent respondents show greater support for A. Lukashenko and V. Putin, whereas more affluent respondents are more favorable toward A. Duda, E. Macron, J. Trudeau, B. Johnson, and D. Trump.
- Among supporters of different political parties, the presidents of Belarus, Russia, and Turkey are clear favorites among supporters of the Opposition Platform – For Life party. Western leaders, in contrast, enjoy greater support among sympathizers of European Solidarity and Holos. A. Lukashenko and V. Putin also lead in support among those who regret the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Selected aspects of public attitudes toward the Land Issue
30.10.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group on October 24–27, 2019, about one quarter of respondents reported owning a land share (land plot): 6% cultivate it themselves, while 17% lease it out. Land-share owners are most common in the West, among rural residents, and older age groups.
- 70% of land-share owners say that if the agricultural land market is introduced, they will continue cultivating or leasing their land; 16% intend to sell it.
- The main reasons for not cultivating land independently are lack of financial resources and health conditions (primarily age-related), cited by more than a quarter of respondents. Other reasons—having alternative income, lack of knowledge/skills for farming, or living in another locality—were mentioned by 10–12%.
- The majority of land-share owners (73%) believe the current lease price is unfair; only 15% consider it fair.
- 42% think the lease price for agricultural land should be set by the state, while 38% believe it should be determined by the market; about one fifth are undecided. Market-based regulation is more often supported by land-share owners who cultivate their land themselves and by those who consider their lease price fair. Younger respondents tend to favor the market, older respondents state regulation. Support for market pricing is strongest among voters of Holos and European Solidarity.
- 18% would rather engage in farming, 75% would not, and about 3% say they are already farmers. Among land-share owners who cultivate their land themselves, more than a quarter are farmers.
- More than half (53%) do not support lifting the moratorium on the purchase/sale of agricultural land; 31% support it. Nearly half of supporters are land-share owners who cultivate their land themselves.
- More than half believe a land market can be introduced in Ukraine: 22% favor opening it as soon as possible, 10% in one year, and 21% in several years. At the same time, 28% oppose introducing a land market at any time.
- A clear majority (69%) oppose allowing foreigners to buy land at any time. Only 7% support this in the near term, 4% in one year, and 8% in several years. Even among those who support opening the land market, half oppose sales to foreigners.
- 68% believe that once the market opens, land should be sold to farmers who work the land; 61% to all Ukrainian citizens; and about 40% to state companies and domestic agribusiness holdings. Support for selling agricultural land to foreigners or foreign companies is around 10% (with 82% opposed). Over the past two months, acceptance of sales to farmers, Ukrainian citizens, and state companies has increased. Younger respondents are more accepting of all potential market participants.
- 70% believe land-share owners should have the right to sell or gift land exclusively to domestic companies or Ukrainian citizens. About two thirds support Ukrainians’ right to freely purchase agricultural land. 60% approve allowing land-share owners to use their land as collateral for bank loans. A similar share (57%) supports caps on the maximum area of agricultural land that one person can own. These ideas are more strongly supported by younger respondents and by those who own and cultivate land shares.
- The idea of transferring state-owned land to amalgamated territorial communities (ATCs), granting them the right to manage it at their discretion (sell, lease, etc.), is supported by 38% and opposed by 33%.
- Respondents are more likely to oppose increasing the land tax to boost local budgets (48% against, 22% for) and oppose allowing land-share owners to sell land to all buyers, including foreign entities (71% against, 16% for).
Entrepreneurship in Lviv: residents’ perspective
29.10.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group during October 4–14, 2019 among residents of Lviv, 41% believe the city is developing in the right direction, 36% disagree, and 23% could not answer. Regarding the country’s direction, 31% see it as right, 43% as wrong, and 26% were undecided. Over time, positive assessments of the country’s direction increased, while assessments of the city’s direction declined.
- Among city opportunities, respondents rated leisure and recreation highest (68% say Lviv offers everything or almost everything for this). 52% believe the city provides good opportunities to find a job. Views on safety are split: about 40% consider the city safe, 25% see safety as average, and 25% perceive it as rather unsafe. Perceptions of entrepreneurial opportunities are similarly mixed: one-third see good opportunities, one-fifth rate them as average, one-quarter see no opportunities, and one-quarter could not answer.
- Younger and wealthier residents rate leisure, jobs, and safety more positively. Regarding entrepreneurship, many older and poorer respondents could not give a clear answer (around 40%). Middle-aged and middle-income groups are more critical. Young, affluent residents and current entrepreneurs tend to rate business opportunities as high.
- The top city problems are utility costs (46%), traffic congestion (42%), and drug and alcohol abuse (35%). About 25% cite poor road conditions, lack of parking, and development of parks/green areas. 20–17% mention illegal construction, shortage of kindergarten places, poor transport condition, and stray animals. 10–12% point to poor sidewalks, transport fares, low medical professionalism, and rising crime; other issues are mentioned by fewer than 10%.
- Satisfaction with city governance and services:
– Mayor: 51% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied
– Municipal improvement services: 44% / 43%
– City council: 40% / 41%
– Public transport: 31% / 60%
– коммунальні services: 27% / 65% - Trust in business groups: highest trust is in small and medium entrepreneurs (over 60%), lowest in oligarchs (8%). Owners of large enterprises are trusted by 33% and distrusted by 48%. Trust is lower among the oldest, poorest, and those not wanting to start a business.
- Entrepreneurial intentions: 37% want to start a business; 14% already have one; 46% do not want to. Interest is highest among youth. Notably, one-third of affluent respondents already run a business. Preferred sectors among aspiring entrepreneurs: trade (33%), tourism (14%), entertainment/leisure (13%), food service (11%), construction/repairs (10%). 8% each: transport/logistics, beauty & health, hotels, marketing/advertising, IT, education. 4–6%: medical services, tailoring/repair, farming, auto service, real estate, household goods production.
- Shopping behavior: About 50% shop in supermarkets/stores almost daily; 28% several times a week; 11% weekly; 7% less often; 3% never. Women, younger and wealthier residents shop more frequently.
– Most bought items: food (95%); household goods, drinks, and cleaning products are bought less often. Alcohol is bought less frequently; about half do not buy it at all. Cigarettes are regularly bought by 15%; 64% never buy them. - Kiosks/pavilions: 17% use them daily; 24% several times a week; 12% weekly; 23% less often; 24% never. Users are more often men, young/middle-aged, and lower/middle income. Food and drinks are the most common purchases. Cigarettes are bought more often in kiosks than in supermarkets; other goods are bought more often in stores. Since 2007, purchases of juices/water, cigarettes, and alcohol in kiosks have declined sharply (especially beer), while food, household goods, and cleaning products increased slightly.
- Reasons to shop at kiosks: convenient location (71%), time savings (39%), no queues (18%), lower prices (15%), habit (10%); 7–8% cite 24/7 operation and freshness. Over time, the importance of low prices, no queues, habit, and 24/7 operation has declined. Younger buyers stress convenience; older buyers cite prices and habit.
Reasons to avoid kiosks: habit of not buying there (29%), poor storage conditions (23%), limited assortment (20%), stale goods (18%). Concerns about storage and cheating have fallen by more than half over time. - City policy toward small business: 46% believe the city authorities hinder small business development; 13% think they help; 13% say authorities do not interfere; 28% undecided. Perceived hindrance is higher among middle-aged/middle-income residents and those wanting to start a business; it is less common among current entrepreneurs.
- MAFs (kiosks) conflict: 45% have heard about the conflict with city authorities. 51% oppose the mayor’s proposal to reduce the number of MAFs threefold; 41% support it (support is higher among those not wanting a business and those who never use small shops).
59% believe reducing MAFs would cost jobs and reduce city revenues; 29% think it would improve urban amenities.
62% believe the policy aims to help large retail chains crowd out small/medium traders; 20% think it aims to restore order.
58% favor mutual concessions between the city and entrepreneurs; 26% say authorities should not interfere; 9% support mass demolition. 60% side with entrepreneurs; 19% with city authorities.
Assessment of the situation in Ukraine (19-22 October, 2019)
24.10.2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group during October 19–22, 2019, 18% of respondents believe that over the past 12 months the economic situation in the country has improved, 47% say it has not changed, and 29% state that it has worsened. Similar assessments apply to household financial conditions: 17% believe the situation has improved, 53% saw no change, and 30% reported deterioration. Compared to the beginning of the year, the share of those who negatively assessed the economic situation both in the country and in their families has halved.
- Against the backdrop of growing optimism after the presidential elections, positive expectations for the future have also increased. Currently, 45% of respondents believe that over the next 12 months the economic situation in Ukraine will improve, 26% expect no change, and only 15% hold negative expectations. Another 15% were unable to answer.
- In most areas assessed in the survey, respondents either observed positive changes or no change. In year-on-year dynamics, positive trends are visible across all areas. The largest share of positive change was noted in the condition of roads (almost 40% reported improvement). 31% observed positive changes in the exchange rate of the national currency, and 23% noted improvements in freedom of speech and democracy.
- Regarding Ukraine’s international image, 21% observed improvement; 19% noted improvement in relations with the West. Improvements were also seen in job-finding opportunities (18%), anti-corruption efforts (17%), political stability (14%), and progress toward resolving the war in Donbas (13%).
- Despite the overall positive dynamics, respondents more often reported deterioration in several areas. In particular, negative changes were more frequently noted in healthcare quality (45% reported deterioration, 12% improvement, 30% no change), road safety (46% deterioration, 12% improvement, 34% no change), utility tariffs (52% deterioration, 8% improvement, 3% no change), and prices for basic goods and services (73% deterioration, 18% no change, only 3% improvement).
- 71% stated that what Ukraine lacks most today is peace. 43% believe Ukraine needs order, 40%—stability, 37%—unity, 36%—prosperity, 30%—development and justice, and 8%—greater global influence. Demand for all listed categories has increased over the past three months, most notably for peace and order.
- The largest threat to Ukraine today, according to respondents, is the mass emigration of Ukrainians abroad (56%). About 45% consider economic decline and impoverishment of the population to be threats. Between 30% and 40% identify threats such as deterioration of public health, environmental disasters, full-scale war with Russia, rising crime, and population degradation and decline. Between 20% and 30% cite state collapse, hryvnia devaluation, power vacuum, and mass unrest. Between 13% and 17% consider dictatorship, famine, international isolation, and terrorism as threats. Over the past three months, concern about public health, environmental disasters, and war with Russia has increased, while concern about hryvnia devaluation and inflation has decreased.
- Amid positive expectations and a generally optimistic post-election mood, trust in most institutions has increased. The largest positive changes were recorded for central government institutions: the President, the Government, and Parliament.
- Currently, Ukrainians trust volunteers (69%), ATO veterans (67%), the President of Ukraine (66%), and the Army (65%) the most. The Church also enjoys a high level of trust (56%).
- Civil society organizations are trusted by 48%, city/village mayors by 47%, the National Guard by 46%, the Government by 45%, the Verkhovna Rada by 44%, local media by 43%, national media by 42%, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) by 38%, and regional state administrations by 32%.
- Other institutions are more often distrusted than trusted. In particular, Police are distrusted by 49% (trusted by 31%), the Border Guard Service (41% / 23%), the State Bureau of Investigations (41% / 23%), tax authorities (50% / 20%), customs authorities (51% / 19%), NABU (49% / 17%), and the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (48% / 15%).
- The lowest levels of trust are recorded for the prosecutor’s office (62% distrust) and the courts (66% distrust). Only 14–15% trust these institutions.
Attitude of Ukrainians towards the land market introduction
08.10.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, only 19% of respondents support the introduction of sales of agricultural land. 73% oppose this initiative, while 8% are undecided. Support for launching a land market is relatively higher among younger and wealthier respondents and among land-share owners who cultivate their land themselves. However, even within these groups, at least 60% oppose the initiative.
- Support for allowing foreigners to purchase agricultural land is even lower: only 13% are in favor, while 81% are against. Although among the youngest and wealthiest about one in five does not oppose foreign ownership, three quarters of these groups still firmly reject it.
- 74% believe that any decision on introducing sales of agricultural land in Ukraine should be made through a nationwide referendum; 17% disagree.
- 58% think agricultural land should remain state-owned, following models such as Canada or Israel. 22% support a model similar to Italy, where arable land can be bought and sold, while 20% could not choose between these options. Preference for state ownership is more common among older and poorer respondents and those without land shares; support for a market model is higher among younger, wealthier respondents and self-cultivating land-share owners. Still, even among these latter groups, at least half favor the Canadian/Israeli model.
- Perceived benefits of allowing land sales most often cited include:
– owners being able to dispose of land at their own discretion (26%);
– job creation in rural areas (18%);
– investment inflows into Ukraine (14%);
– obtaining a fair market price (13%);
– enabling farmers to use land as collateral for loans (13%).
Fewer than 7% mentioned benefits such as eliminating the shadow land market, supporting SMEs, increasing budget revenues, or improving soil ecology. 35% see no benefits at all from lifting the moratorium. Self-cultivating land-share owners more often emphasized autonomy, jobs, and investment; those leasing out shares more often said there are no advantages. - Key risks most frequently mentioned are:
– land being bought by foreigners (41%);
– deception of land-share owners during sales (31%);
– dangers due to imperfect legislation (31%);
– land being concentrated by oligarchs (23%).
Additionally, 17% argue a land market is inappropriate during wartime; 16% fear destruction of small and medium rural businesses; 13% each warn of accelerated depopulation of villages or loss of stable rental income for villagers. Only 5% see no risks. Concerns about foreign purchases, fraud, and weak legislation are especially common among land-share owners who cultivate their land themselves.
Dynamics of Ukrainians’ attitudes towards gambling
04.10.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, only 11% of respondents believe that gambling should be legalized in Ukraine without any restrictions. 27% support legalization provided that special gambling zones are created, while nearly 60% oppose legalization under any conditions.
- Almost half of respondents believe that lotteries should be permitted in Ukraine. About one quarter support allowing sports betting and casinos (with attitudes toward casino legalization having improved). The most negative attitudes are toward the legalization of online casinos (12%), slot machines (12%), and card games for money (11%).
- 25% of respondents consider themselves gamblers, while the majority (73%) do not. Gambling propensity is higher among men, younger people, and those with higher incomes.
- Over the past two years, the share of people who consider themselves gamblers has not changed, but attitudes toward gambling overall have worsened.
- Only 28% have a positive attitude toward gambling without monetary stakes or winnings (down from 46% in 2017). About two thirds view such games negatively (up from 49% in 2017).
- Attitudes toward gambling for money are overwhelmingly negative: just 10% view it positively, while 85% are negative. More tolerant views are found among self-identified gamblers, particularly men of younger and middle age—among whom positive attitudes toward gambling for money (16%) are almost three times higher than among women (6%).
- The vast majority (84%) reported not personally gambling for money in the past five years. Meanwhile, 3% did so frequently, 9% several times, and 3% once.
- Over the last two years, the proportion of respondents who gambled for money has remained largely unchanged.
- Nearly half of self-identified gamblers reported gambling for money at least once in the past five years—typically younger and middle-aged men with relatively higher incomes.
- The most common forms of gambling among those who played were lotteries (31%) and sports betting (29%). About one quarter played slot machines and card games for money; one in six played online casinos, and one in ten visited casinos.
- Among those who do not gamble, the most common reasons are the belief that money should be earned, not won (48%), and distrust of gambling organizers (about one third).
Attitudes of Ukrainians towards the occupied territories issue solution
02.10.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, 68% of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor state toward Ukraine. 23% hold the opposite view, and 10% were undecided.
Attitudes differ by region and electoral preference: in the West and Center, at least 70% regard Russia as an aggressor; in the South, about 50% do so; in the East, only 40% agree with this statement, while 47% disagree. Among supporters of parliamentary political parties, a distinctly different view prevails among supporters of the Opposition Platform – For Life, where about two-thirds do not consider Russia an aggressor. - More than half of respondents support non-military approaches to resolving the issue of occupied Donbas:
34% favor ending hostilities and recognizing these territories as temporarily occupied, effectively freezing the conflict;
23% support granting these territories autonomous status within Ukraine.
At the same time, 23% favor continuing military actions until full restoration of Ukrainian control over Donbas, and only 6% support separation of these territories from Ukraine.
Military solutions receive the greatest support in the West, while granting autonomy finds more support in the South and East. By electoral preference, support for autonomy is highest among supporters of Opposition Platform – For Life, whereas military solutions are most supported by voters of European Solidarity and Holos. - 55% support the deployment of UN peacekeepers in occupied Donbas without a Russian contingent; 26% oppose it.
53% support holding local elections in the non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions after Ukraine regains control over the entire occupied territory; 19% oppose.
43% support local elections in these areas under OSCE supervision, while 27% oppose. - Several initiatives related to occupied Donbas do not enjoy public support:
Amnesty for members of illegal armed groups fighting on the side of the so-called “DPR/LPR” is opposed by 48% and supported by 27%.
Granting local councils the right to form “people’s militia” units is opposed by 43% and supported by 27%.
Deploying UN peacekeepers including a Russian contingent is opposed by 61% and supported by only 17%. - Two-thirds of respondents were unable to assess the peace initiative known as the “Steinmeier Formula.” 23% opposed it, while 18% supported it.
- Initiatives such as holding elections in non-controlled territories under any conditions, amnesty for illegal armed formations, and granting the right to form people’s militia units receive relatively higher support in the eastern regions and among supporters of Opposition Platform – For Life.
In contrast, deploying UN peacekeepers without a Russian contingent is more strongly supported in the West and Center.
Deploying UN peacekeepers with a Russian contingent does not receive majority support in any macro-region.
Musical preferences of Ukrainians
19.09.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group in September 2019, Ukrainians’ favorite music genres are pop music (26%), classical music (25%), folk music (21%), and chanson (18%).
These are followed by rock (14%), dance/disco (12%), club music (8%), and jazz (7%). Rap, romances, and sacred music were each chosen by 6% of respondents; electronic, blues, and hip-hop by 4% each; bard music by 3%. Heavy rock and reggae are each preferred by 2%. Only 4% say they do not like music at all. - Although pop music remains the top preference, its popularity has declined over the past decade (from 32% to 26%). The share of those who prefer romances has halved (12% in 2009 to 6% in 2019). Preferences for chanson (22% → 18%) and folk music (25% → 21%) have also decreased.
- In contrast, the number of classical music fans has increased (20% → 25%), pushing it above chanson and folk in the rankings. Over the past 10 years, the share of rock fans has doubled (7% → 14%), and rap has also grown (3% → 6%).
- Age differences: Younger respondents prefer pop, rock, disco, club, electronic music, rap, and hip-hop more than older respondents. Older age groups are more inclined toward classical and folk music, chanson, romances, and bard music.
- Gender differences: Women more often than men prefer classical and pop music (31–32% vs. 19%), folk music (24% vs. 18%), and sacred music (7% vs. 3%). Women are also twice as likely to like dance music (15% vs. 8%).
Men, in turn, more often prefer rock (21% vs. 9%), chanson (20% vs. 16%), rap (9% vs. 3%), and electronic music (7% vs. 3%). - Education differences: The higher the level of education, the more respondents tend to prefer classical music, rock, and jazz. Those with higher education also show greater interest in pop, electronic, and bard music. Respondents with secondary education are more likely to prefer folk music and chanson.
Cinematic preferences of Ukrainians
18.09.2019
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in September 2019, the most popular film genres among Ukrainians are comedies (37%), historical films (31%), and melodramas (28%). These are followed by documentaries (18%), adventure films (15%), action movies (14%), and science fiction (13%). About 10% of respondents say they like dramas. Thrillers are popular with 7%, horror films with 6%, mystical films with 5%, and erotic films with 2%. Only 4% say they do not like films at all.
- Despite comedies remaining the top genre, their popularity has declined over the past decade (from 45% to 37%). Adventure films also saw a significant drop compared to 2009 (15% vs. 24%), and interest in melodramas decreased slightly. At the same time, interest in science fiction increased, along with a modest rise in popularity of historical and documentary films.
- Age differences: Younger people prefer comedies, action films, science fiction, horror, and thrillers more than older respondents. Interest in these genres declines with age. Overall, younger people like cinema more than older groups, while older respondents show greater interest in historical films and melodramas.
- Gender differences: Women are nearly five times more likely than men to enjoy melodramas (44% vs. 9%) and three times more likely to prefer dramas (14% vs. 5%). Women also like comedies more (41% vs. 32%). Men, by contrast, are about five times more likely to enjoy action movies (24% vs. 5%), and they show higher interest in historical, documentary, and science fiction films.
- Education: Preferences also vary by education level. The higher the level of education, the stronger the preference for historical, documentary, and science fiction films. Respondents with higher education also more often enjoy comedies, adventure films, and thrillers, while those with secondary education are more interested in action movies and melodramas.
Monitoring of public sentiments of Ukrainians (September 6–10, 2019)
12.09.2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group during September 6–10, 2019, 55% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, 18% think they are moving in the wrong direction, and 26% were undecided. The direction of the country’s development is assessed most positively in the West and South, and relatively worse in the Center and East. Young people and voters of the Servant of the People party remain more optimistic. In contrast, relatively more pessimism is observed among the oldest respondents and supporters of the European Solidarity party and the Opposition Platform – For Life party.
- 71% of those surveyed are satisfied with the performance of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelenskyy, 11% hold the opposite view, and 18% were unable to form an opinion. Compared to July of the same year, the level of satisfaction with the President’s work increased by almost one and a half times.
- 29% positively assess the work of the Head of the Government, O. Honcharuk, while 11% assess it negatively. Two thirds have not yet been able to evaluate the new Prime Minister.
- 39% of respondents are satisfied with the work of the newly elected Verkhovna Rada, 16% are dissatisfied, and 45% were unable to assess it.
- An absolute majority of respondents (over 90%) support initiatives regarding the early termination of a Member of Parliament’s mandate for vote-rigging and absenteeism, the reduction of the number of MPs from 450 to 300, and the lifting of parliamentary immunity.
- More than 70% support granting legislative initiative to citizens of Ukraine, expanding the President’s powers to appoint the heads of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), as well as increasing the number of Human Rights Commissioners (ombudspersons). About two thirds support enshrining in the Constitution the norm on electing Members of Parliament under a proportional electoral system and abolishing the адвокатська (lawyer) monopoly.
Socio-political attitudes of residents of Kyiv (August 20–27 2019)
28.08.2019
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group in Kyiv, 37% of residents believe that the city is moving in the right direction, 28% think it is moving in the wrong direction, and 35% were undecided.
Regarding the situation in the country, 36% of Kyiv residents believe Ukraine is moving in the right direction, 23% think the opposite, and 41% were undecided.52% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of Volodymyr Zelenskyy (17% are dissatisfied), while 33% were undecided.
Satisfaction levels with other officials and institutions in Kyiv are significantly lower:- Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko: 30% satisfied, 56% dissatisfied
- Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman: 25% satisfied, 57% dissatisfied
- Educational institutions of the capital: 19% satisfied, 55% dissatisfied
- Kyiv City Council: 16% satisfied, 62% dissatisfied
- Municipal services and medical institutions of Kyiv: 15% satisfied, 72% dissatisfied (each)
- 72% of Kyiv residents believe that the President does not have the political right to appoint a head of the Kyiv City State Administration different from the person elected by Kyiv residents as mayor. 17% disagree, and 11% were undecided.
- 39% believe that Kyiv mayoral elections should be held as soon as possible, this year; 7% support early elections in the spring; meanwhile 43% favor holding them in October 2020 as scheduled.
- 43% think that Mayor Klitschko should be allowed to complete his term and be replaced through elections. At the same time, 39% support immediate re-election of the Kyiv mayor. Only 8% favor re-electing Klitschko for another term, while 10% were undecided.
Dynamics of the patriotic moods of Ukrainians
21.08.2019
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in August 2019, 83% of Ukrainian citizens consider themselves patriots of their country (almost the same as in 2018). 11% hold the opposite view, and 6% were undecided. Compared with previous surveys, this year recorded the highest share of unequivocal answers to this question (60%).
- Across all macro-regions of Ukraine, the share of citizens with patriotic views exceeds 75%: 86% in the West, 85% in the Center, 79% in the East, and 78% in the South.
- Over the course of the surveys, the highest share ever of respondents said they would support the proclamation of Ukraine’s Independence if faced with such a choice today—82% (up from 62% in 2012). 12% would not support it, and 6% were undecided. Support is highest in the West (92%), followed by the Center (85%), South (75%), and East (69%). Opposition is relatively more common in the southern and eastern regions (about 20–23%), as well as among older and lower-income respondents. Support for Independence strongly correlates with patriotic sentiment: the stronger the patriotism, the higher the support.
- Nearly 60% of the population attend public events on Independence Day: 25% do so every year, and 34% attend occasionally. 36% do not attend such events at all, and 5% report that they do not celebrate Independence Day. Attendance is relatively lower among lower-income groups, older respondents, and in the East.
- A significant share of respondents primarily identify themselves as citizens of Ukraine: this rose from 57% in 2010 to 65% in 2019. This year also saw the lowest share of those identifying first as residents of their region/city/village (15%), and a decline in those choosing “just a person” (18%, down from 29% last year). The share identifying by nationality increased slightly (16%). Additionally, 10% primarily identify by family role, 8% as a Soviet person, 7% as a European, 6% as a global citizen, and about 3–4% by religion or profession.
- “Citizen of Ukraine” is the dominant identifier in all regions: 72% in the West, 66% in the Center, 62% in the South, and 51% in the East. This identity is more common among younger respondents and men. Women more often prioritize family-role identification. “Just a person” is more common in the Center and South, while regional and family-role identities are more prevalent in the East. Identification as a Soviet person is more typical in the South and East, among older and lower-income groups. Wealthier respondents more often identify as Europeans, while the youngest are more likely to identify as global citizens.
Monitoring of electoral sentiments of Ukrainians (July 13–17, 2019)
18.07.2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group during July 13–17, 2019, 41% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, 37% think they are moving in the wrong direction, and 22% were undecided. The direction of the country’s development is assessed most positively in the West and Center, and relatively worse in the East. Young people and voters of the Servant of the People party remain more optimistic, while the most pessimistic views are expressed by supporters of the European Solidarity party and the Opposition Platform – For Life party.
- The Servant of the People party leads electoral preferences: 49.5% of those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice are ready to support it. Parties that would currently pass the electoral threshold also include Opposition Platform – For Life (10.5%), European Solidarity (7.7%), Batkivshchyna (6.9%), and Holos (Voice) (5.9%). Strength and Honor would be supported by 3.8%, the Opposition Bloc by 3.1%, while the ratings of other political forces are below 3%.
- 58% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelenskyy; 19% hold the opposite view, and 24% have not yet formed an opinion. 28% positively assess the work of the Head of Government, V. Hroisman, while 62% assess it negatively. More than 80% of respondents are dissatisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, and only 7% are satisfied.
Electoral attitudes: Constituency No. 96 (July 6–11, 2019)
15.07.2019
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in July 2019 among residents of single-member constituency No. 96 (centered in Vyshhorod, Kyiv Oblast):
- Voter turnout intentions:
63% of respondents said they were definitely ready to participate in the parliamentary elections; another 14% said they were rather likely to vote. 19% stated they would not participate, and 4% were undecided. - Party preferences (among decided voters who intend to vote):
- Servant of the People — 50%
- Batkivshchyna — 8.9%
- European Solidarity — 8.4%
- Holos — 7.1%
- Opposition Platform – For Life — 4.9%
- Strength and Honor — 4.4%
- Radical Party — 4.3%
- Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman — 2.1%
- Other parties — <2%
- Single-member district candidates (among decided voters who intend to vote):
- Yaroslav Moskalenko — 33.0%
- Olha Vasylevska-Smahliuk — 25.5%
- Roman Bukovskyi — 10.2%
- Serhii Zamidra — 6.5%
- Liudmyla Voinalovych — 4.1%
- Oleksandr Bovsunskyi — 4.0%
- Tetiana Brazhnikova — 3.8%
- Other candidates — <2%
Overall, about 40% of constituency residents had not yet decided on their preferences.
- Perceived likelihood of winning:
20.4% believe Yaroslav Moskalenko will win and become an MP; 14.5% say the same about Olha Vasylevska-Smahliuk. For other candidates, this figure is below 3%.
Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (6-10 July, 2019)
11.07.2019
- According to the survey conducted by the Rating Group on July 6–10, 2019, 35% of respondents believe that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, while 39% think the country is moving in the wrong direction and 26% remain undecided. Evaluations of the country’s trajectory are most positive in the West and most negative in the East. Younger respondents and supporters of the Servant of the People party tend to be more optimistic than other groups.
- In terms of electoral preferences among those who intend to vote and have already decided, the Servant of the People party leads with 47%. It is followed by Opposition Platform – For Life with 11.6%, European Solidarity with 8.2%, Voice with 6.6%, and Batkivshchyna with 6.4%. Support for Strength and Honor stands at 3.6%, for the Opposition Bloc at 3.2%, for the Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman at 2.8%, for the Radical Party at 2.5%, and for Svoboda at 2.1%. All other political forces receive less than 2% support.
- When asked about a possible “second choice,” respondents most often named the Servant of the People party (9.6%) and Voice (9.3%). Batkivshchyna was mentioned by 6.2%, Opposition Platform – For Life by 4.9%, Strength and Honor by 4.0%, Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman by 2.6%, Opposition Bloc by 2.5%, Civic Position by 2.4%, and European Solidarity by 2.3%, while all other parties were mentioned by fewer than 2% of respondents.
- The level of trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stands at 65%, while 27% report that they do not trust him. Among leaders of political parties, relatively higher trust levels are recorded for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (25%), Dmytro Razumkov (24%), Anatoliy Hrytsenko (23%), Yulia Tymoshenko (22%), Yuriy Boyko (22%), Volodymyr Groysman (20%), and Ihor Smeshko (20%). The lowest levels of trust are reported for Petro Poroshenko (14%) and Viktor Medvedchuk (12%).
- Regionally, trust patterns differ: in the West, Zelenskyy and Vakarchuk enjoy the highest trust; in the Center, Zelenskyy, Hrytsenko, Tymoshenko, Smeshko, and Groysman lead; in the South, Zelenskyy and Boyko are most trusted; and in the East, the highest trust levels are recorded for Zelenskyy, Boyko, Razumkov, and Medvedchuk.
IRI Survey. Dynamics of Socio-Political Attitudes in Ukraine: June 2019
10.07.2019
The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on order of the International Republican Institute.
Data was collected throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and part of the Donbas) between June 13 and June 23, 2019. The sample consisted of 2,400 residents of Ukraine aged 18 and olderand eligible to vote.The sample is representative by gender, age, region, and settlement size.
The margin of error does not exceed 2,0%. Average response rate was 61.8%.
English version of the report can be downloaded from the IRI.