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Electoral attitudes: Constituency No. 165

04.07.2019

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in June–July 2019 among residents of single-member constituency No. 165 (centered in the town of Zboriv, Ternopil region), 77% of respondents stated that they are definitely ready to take part in the parliamentary elections. Another 9% said they would rather come to polling stations and vote. Only 12% indicated that they would not participate in the parliamentary elections, while 2% remained undecided.
In terms of electoral preferences among political parties in the constituency, the Servant of the People party leads with 25.4% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. It is followed by the Voice party with 19.6%, European Solidarity with 14.8%, Batkivshchyna with 7.0%, the Radical Party with 5.3%, Civic Position with 4.5%, Svoboda with 4.1%, and the Agrarian Party of Ukraine with 3.7%. Support for all other political parties does not exceed 3%.
Among candidates running in the single-member district, Ivan Chaikivskyi is the frontrunner, supported by 36.5% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. Taras Yuryk receives 23.3% support, followed by Vasyl Martyuk with 11.1%, Volodymyr Kisilevych with 11.0%, and Petro Repela with 4.3%. All other candidates receive less than 3% support. Overall, about one quarter of the constituency’s residents have not yet decided on their electoral preferences.
When asked about expectations regarding the election outcome, 25.1% of voters believe that Ivan Chaikivskyi will win the election and become a Member of Parliament. Only 10.5% think that Taras Yuryk will win, while 6.7% name Volodymyr Kisilevych as the likely winner.

Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (29 June – 3 July, 2019)

04.07.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group between June 29 and July 3, 2019, 62% of respondents stated that they are definitely ready to take part in voting in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21, 2019. Another 23% said they are rather ready to participate, 12% said they would not vote, and 3% were undecided. A higher level of readiness to participate in voting is demonstrated by older voters.
The Servant of the People party leads in electoral preferences among political forces, with 42.3% of those who intend to vote and have made up their minds ready to support it. Parties that would currently pass the electoral threshold also include Opposition Platform – For Life (13.4%), European Solidarity (8.3%), Voice (7.2%), and Batkivshchyna (7.2%). Support for Strength and Honor stands at 3.8%, Opposition Bloc at 3.1%, Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman at 2.8%, Civic Position and the Radical Party at 2.4% each, and Svoboda at 2.3%. Ratings for other political parties are below 2%.
The leaders in the so-called “second choice” are the Servant of the People party (10.0%) and the Voice party (7.4%). Opposition Platform – For Life is named as an alternative choice by 4.6% of respondents, Strength and Honor by 4.4%, Batkivshchyna by 4.2%, Opposition Bloc by 3.4%, the Radical Party by 2.6%, European Solidarity by 2.2%, and Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman by 2.0%.

“Prime-ministerial” preferences of Ukrainians

27.06.2019

According to a nationwide survey conducted by the Rating Group between June 12 and 20, 2019, a majority of Ukrainians (55%) believe that the future Prime Minister should be a candidate with significant experience in governing the country. At the same time, 35% expect a new figure, even one without prior experience in public administration. Support for an experienced Prime Minister increases with age. This view is most strongly shared by supporters of European Solidarity (87%), Batkivshchyna (81%), Opposition Platform – For Life (80%), and the Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman (75%). In contrast, it is least supported among voters of Svoboda (55%), Voice (52%), and Servant of the People (43%).
When asked about specific personalities, respondents most often named Yurii Boyko (13%), Yuliia Tymoshenko (11%), and Volodymyr Groysman (10%) as their preferred future Prime Minister. Regional differences are pronounced: Groysman is more often preferred in Galicia and Central Ukraine, Boyko in the East and Donbas, and Tymoshenko in the West, North, Center, and Kyiv.
In addition, 7% of respondents see Ihor Smeshko as a potential Prime Minister, 6% name Dmytro Razumkov, and 5% mention Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. Petro Poroshenko, Anatolii Hrytsenko, and Mikheil Saakashvili each receive 4%, while Oleh Liashko is supported by 3%. Andrii Sadovyi and Oleksandr Vilkul are each named by 2%. At the same time, 7% of respondents do not consider any of the proposed candidates suitable, and 14% remain undecided regarding their “prime-ministerial” preferences.
Levels of trust in political leaders differ significantly. Volodymyr Zelenskyi enjoys the highest trust, with 63% saying they trust him and 25% expressing distrust. Trust in other figures is substantially lower: Sviatoslav Vakarchuk is trusted by 24% and distrusted by 57%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 22% and distrusted by 62%, Ihor Smeshko by 21% and distrusted by 49%, and Yurii Boyko by 21% and distrusted by 62%. Yuliia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Groysman are each trusted by 19%, but distrusted by 74% and 72% respectively. Even lower trust levels are recorded for Andrii Sadovyi (14% trust), Petro Poroshenko (14%), Oleh Liashko (12%), and Mikheil Saakashvili (11%), all of whom face very high distrust rates.
Age differences in trust are limited for Vakarchuk, Sadovyi, and Poroshenko. In contrast, younger respondents are more likely to trust Zelenskyi, while older respondents tend to express greater trust in figures such as Hrytsenko, Smeshko, Boyko, Tymoshenko, Groysman, and Liashko.
Regionally, Zelenskyi records the highest trust levels in the South and East of the country, where more than 70% trust him. In the Center, West, North, Kharkiv region, and Donbas, about two thirds trust him, while in Galicia and Kyiv trust levels are closer to 50%. Vakarchuk enjoys his strongest support in Galicia (52%), with relatively higher trust also observed in the West, North, Center, and Kyiv. Similar regional patterns apply to Hrytsenko, although he is somewhat less trusted in Kyiv. Smeshko is trusted more in Galicia, the West, Center, and North; Boyko primarily in the East, Kharkiv region, and Donbas; Groysman in Galicia and Central Ukraine; Tymoshenko mainly in the Center; Sadovyi, Poroshenko, and Saakashvili in Galicia; and Liashko most notably in the North.

Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (20-24 June, 2019)

26.06.2019

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group between June 20 and 24, 2019, 33% of respondents stated that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, while 40% expressed the opposite view and 27% were undecided.
More optimistic assessments of the country’s situation are more common among the youngest respondents and supporters of the Servant of the People and Voice parties. In contrast, supporters of European Solidarity and Opposition Platform – For Life demonstrate the most pessimistic views on this issue.
A total of 65% of respondents reported that they are ready to take part in voting in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21, 2019. Another 19% said they are rather ready to participate, 13% stated that they would not vote, and 3% were undecided. Older voters show a higher level of readiness to participate in the elections.
The Servant of the People party leads electoral preferences, with 45.3% of those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice ready to support it. Parties that would currently pass the electoral threshold also include Opposition Platform – For Life (12.1%), Voice (8.4%), European Solidarity (7.2%), and Batkivshchyna (7.0%). Support for Strength and Honor stands at 3.4%, and for the Radical Party at 2.5%, while ratings for other political forces remain below 2%.
Trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stands at 67%, while 26% of respondents say they do not trust him. Among political party leaders, relatively higher levels of trust are recorded for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (25%), Dmytro Razumkov (22%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (21%), and Ihor Smeshko (21%). Yurii Boyko is trusted by 20% of respondents, Yuliia Tymoshenko by 17%, and Petro Poroshenko by 15%. The highest levels of distrust are associated with Petro Poroshenko and Oleh Liashko, with around 80% of respondents stating that they do not trust them.

Electoral attitudes: District No. 125

24.06.2019

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in May–June 2019 among residents of single-member electoral district No. 125 (centered in Staryi Sambir, Lviv region), electoral participation intentions in the district were relatively high. A total of 55% of respondents stated that they are definitely ready to take part in the parliamentary elections, while another 34% said they are rather ready to come to polling stations and vote. Only 7% reported that they would not participate in the elections, and 4% remained undecided.
In terms of party preferences, the Servant of the People party leads in the district, with 31.7% support among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. It is followed by Voice with 20.7%, European Solidarity with 15.1%, Civic Position with 7.8%, Batkivshchyna with 7.6%, and Svoboda with 6.2%. Support for the Radical Party stands at 3.3%, while all other political forces receive less than 3%.
The survey also explored attitudes toward forms of electoral campaigning. A clear majority of respondents (62%) expressed a negative attitude toward material assistance from candidates or deputies during elections, such as distributing food packages, money, or funds for repairs or medical treatment. At the same time, 16% supported such initiatives by politicians who are running for office, while 17% reported a neutral attitude.
When asked how voters in their communities would react if candidates offered food packages, money, or medicines during the campaign, 38% of respondents said that most people they know would accept the assistance but vote for another candidate. Another 37% believe that voters in their area would refuse such assistance altogether. Only 7% stated that this type of campaigning actually influences voters to support the candidate who provides the aid, while 18% were unable to answer the question.
Respondents were also asked about their expectations of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The most common expectation is a ceasefire in Donbas, mentioned by 55% of respondents. Other frequently cited expectations include reducing utility tariffs (35%), raising social standards (30%), punishing high-level officials involved in corruption (29%), intensifying cooperation with the EU and NATO (25%), strengthening the Ukrainian army (22%), reducing the influence of oligarchs on politics (20%), lifting parliamentary immunity (18%), improving the quality of healthcare (15%), and uniting the country (10%). Expectations regarding tariff reductions and higher social standards are more prevalent among older and poorer respondents, while younger and more affluent groups more often emphasize cooperation with the EU and NATO and the removal of parliamentary immunity.
Finally, respondents identified the most pressing local problems in the district. The lack of jobs is considered the most acute issue, cited by 60% of respondents. This is followed by low wages in the region (49%), poverty (37%), poor-quality medical services (35%), and the poor condition of roads (32%). Around one-fifth of respondents point to the decline of agriculture or industry, while 10–13% mention drug addiction, illegal logging, depopulation of villages, or insufficient attention to youth issues. Concerns about unemployment are strongest among younger and middle-aged respondents, whereas poverty and poor healthcare are more frequently emphasized by older residents.

Assessment of the state of healthcare in Ukraine (21-29 May, 2019)

21.06.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group in May 2019, 20% of respondents stated that over the past two years the overall quality of public medical services in the country has improved. At the same time, 37% reported a deterioration, 32% believe that the quality of public medical services has not changed, and 12% were unable to answer. Over the past eight months, the share of those who report improvements in this area has doubled.
One quarter of respondents rated both primary and secondary healthcare in Ukraine positively. One third believe these levels of the healthcare system are in satisfactory condition, while more than a quarter consider them unsatisfactory or very poor. Younger and wealthier respondents tended to assess both changes in service quality and different levels of healthcare more positively.
82% stated that they know their family doctor or therapist, while 18% do not. Over the past year, awareness has increased by almost one and a half times. Awareness is relatively higher in the western regions (89%) and lower in Kyiv and the South (74–72%). Women are better informed about their family doctor than men (87% versus 75%).
More than 80% (as in October 2018) have heard of the national program “Doctor for Every Family.” High levels of awareness are observed across all macro-regions and demographic groups. 79% stated that they have already chosen a doctor and signed a contract with them (56% in October 2018), while 20% said they have not yet done so. Higher mobilization in signing contracts with family doctors is observed in the western and eastern macro-regions, among women and older respondents. At the same time, in the South and in Kyiv, one third of respondents said they have not yet signed an agreement with a therapist.
More than 70% of those who have already signed contracts with a family doctor are satisfied with them; only 12% expressed dissatisfaction, while 16% were undecided. One third of respondents noted that after signing a contract the doctor became more attentive and polite. 18% said it became easier to get an appointment. 11% reported better conditions at the doctor’s office (repairs, modern equipment, etc.) or receiving referrals for free laboratory tests. 9% said they received free medicines or vaccines from their doctor or advice on healthy lifestyles and habits. At the same time, 20% reported no changes after signing the contract (25% in October 2018).
58% support the “money follows the patient” program in healthcare financing. 22% expressed the opposite view, while 20% were unable to answer. Support for the new model of budget allocation in healthcare is higher in the western and southern regions, among younger and wealthier respondents.
38% said they had heard about the Ministry of Health initiative to begin procurement of certain medicines (including vaccines) through a competitive and transparent tender process with high requirements for international organizations involved. At the same time, 58% know nothing about this government program.
73% said they had heard of the “Affordable Medicines” program (66% in October), under which pharmacies provide free medicines to patients with chronic diseases such as type II diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and bronchial asthma. 25% know nothing about it. Awareness is higher among women and older respondents.
28% (19% in October 2018) reported that they personally, or their close relatives (spouse, children, grandparents, siblings, etc.), have participated in the “Affordable Medicines” program. Participation is highest among older respondents, women, and those with medical professionals in the family. 70% said they had not participated. More than half of those who participated consider the program successful, while 38% hold the opposite view.
63% approve of the law on transplantation that allows citizens to voluntarily decide to donate their organs after death for transplantation to others in need. 28% do not approve. Absolute support for this initiative is relatively higher among residents of Kyiv, younger and wealthier respondents.
30% fully support and 28% partially support the possible legalization of medical marijuana for patients with certain health conditions where marijuana could alleviate symptoms or reduce pain. 33% hold the opposite view. Support is relatively higher among residents of Kyiv, men, younger and wealthier respondents.
74% of respondents consider the Ministry of Health important for themselves and their families (56% in October). 19% expressed the opposite view. Residents of the western and southern regions more often emphasized the importance of the Ministry.

Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (8-12 June, 2019)

19.06.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on June 8–12, 2019, 35% of respondents stated that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, while 36% held the opposite view and another 30% were undecided. The positive shift in public sentiment continued. Relatively more optimistic assessments of the country’s situation were observed among residents of the South, the youngest respondents, and supporters of the political parties “Servant of the People,” “Strength and Honor,” and “Voice.” In contrast, supporters of “European Solidarity” and “Opposition Platform – For Life” were the most pessimistic on this issue.
A total of 77% of respondents expressed a definite intention to take part in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21, 2019. Another 12% said they were rather likely to participate, 8% stated they would not vote, and 3% were undecided.
The leader in electoral preferences among political parties was “Servant of the People,” which was supported by 47.1% of those who intended to vote and had decided on their choice. At the time of the survey, the electoral threshold was also being overcome by “Opposition Platform – For Life” (11.1%), “Voice” (8.1%), “Batkivshchyna” (7.3%), and “European Solidarity” (5.0%). Support for other parties included “Strength and Honor” (4.1%), “Civic Position” (2.2%), the Radical Party (2.1%), Svoboda (2.1%), “Ukrainian Strategy” (1.9%), the Opposition Bloc (1.8%), and Samopomich (1.2%). All other political forces received less than 1%.
More than half of respondents believed that the party “Servant of the People” would pass the 5% electoral threshold and enter the future parliament. About 40% expressed the same expectation regarding “Batkivshchyna,” one third regarding “Opposition Platform – For Life,” one quarter regarding “European Solidarity,” and one in five regarding the party “Voice.” Among supporters of political forces with relatively high ratings, more than 70% were confident that their preferred parties would enter the Verkhovna Rada.
Half of respondents were satisfied with the performance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while 14% were dissatisfied and 38% had not yet formed an opinion. Only 22% positively assessed the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, whereas 65% evaluated it negatively. Nearly 90% of respondents were dissatisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, and only 5% expressed satisfaction.
Half of those surveyed expected President Zelenskyy to resolve the issue of ending the fighting in Donbas. Other expectations included lowering utility tariffs (38%), reducing the influence of oligarchs on politics (22%), raising social standards (20%), punishing high-level officials guilty of corruption (19%), lifting parliamentary immunity (17%), improving the quality of healthcare (16%), intensifying cooperation with NATO and the EU (13%), improving relations with Russia (12%), strengthening the Ukrainian army (12%), and uniting the country (10%).
Expectations regarding an end to the war in Donbas were common across almost all macro-regions. At the same time, relatively higher expectations for lowering tariffs, reducing oligarchic influence, and improving relations with Russia were recorded in the South and East. Expectations regarding punishment of corrupt high-level officials were somewhat higher in the West and South; lifting parliamentary immunity was more often mentioned in the Center; improving healthcare quality in the South; and strengthening cooperation with NATO and the EU, as well as reinforcing the Ukrainian army, in the West.

Attitude towards early parliamentary elections

14.06.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on June 8–12, 2019, public support for early parliamentary elections increased significantly over the course of one month, rising from 72% in May to 88% in June. At the time of the survey, only 8% of respondents held the opposite view, compared to 18% in May.
Two thirds of respondents (67%) believe that the newly elected parliament will be more effective than the previous one. At the same time, 82% are convinced that the appeal lodged by a group of Members of Parliament to the Constitutional Court against President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decree on dissolving parliament and calling early elections is not so much a defense of legality as an attempt by MPs to extend their mandates for at least a few additional months. Only 9% of respondents disagree with this interpretation.
Support for early elections, confidence in the effectiveness of the future parliament, and the view that MPs are attempting to prolong their powers by challenging the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada enjoy broad backing across all age groups, regions, and electoral segments. The main exception is supporters of the party “European Solidarity,” the majority of whom oppose early elections, believe that the future parliament will be less effective, and consider the appeal to the Constitutional Court to be a legitimate defense of constitutional order.
A majority of respondents (58%) believe that the President’s decree on dissolving parliament corresponds both to the Constitution and to public sentiment. Another 20% think that while the decree does not comply with the Constitution, it does reflect public moods. Only 6% consider it illegal and inconsistent with societal expectations. The largest share of those who view the decree as both constitutional and aligned with public opinion is found in southern Ukraine (67%), while the lowest share is in the western regions (50%). From an electoral perspective, supporters of the “Servant of the People” party are most convinced that the decree complies with both the law and public expectations (72%), whereas this view is least common among supporters of “European Solidarity” (7%). Nearly half of the latter group believe that although the decree is unlawful, it nevertheless corresponds to public expectations.
If the Constitutional Court were to declare President Zelenskyy’s decree on dissolving parliament unconstitutional, 63% of respondents believe that parliamentary elections should still be held on July 21, 2019, as stipulated in the presidential decision. Another 20% argue that in such a case elections should be held according to the regular schedule in October 2019, while only 7% support holding elections in September. Regionally, support for holding elections specifically on July 21 is highest in the South (71%) and relatively lower in the Center (57%). Among supporters of the most popular political parties, the majority favor holding early elections in July. As in previous questions, the main opposition to this scenario comes from supporters of “European Solidarity,” 70% of whom prefer elections to be held as scheduled in October 2019.

Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (6-9 June, 2019)

12.06.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group during June 6–9, 2019, 69% of respondents stated they were definitely ready to take part in voting in the early elections to the Verkhovna Rada scheduled for July 21, 2019. Another 15% said they were rather ready to participate, 12% said they would not vote, and 4% were undecided.
The leader of electoral preferences among political parties is the Servant of the People party, which is supported by 47.5% of those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. At present, the Opposition Platform – For Life (10.4%), European Solidarity (7.9%), Batkivshchyna (7.5%), and the Voice party (6.4%) also clear the electoral threshold. The Strength and Honor party is supported by 4.3%, the Radical Party by 2.5%, and the Civic Position party by 2.4%. The ratings of other political parties are below 2%.
Regarding the so-called “second choice,” 10.6% of voters could vote for the Servant of the People party if the party they currently support does not take part in the elections; 7.8% could support Batkivshchyna; 6.7% the Voice party; 6.6% the Opposition Platform – For Life; 5.7% the Strength and Honor party; 3.9% the Civic Position party; and 3.1% European Solidarity. All other parties account for less than 3%.
A quarter of respondents said they were planning a vacation in the second half of July 2019. At the same time, 80% of them believe they will be able to vote. Fourteen percent stated the opposite, and another 6% were undecided.
One third plan to spend their vacation at their place of residence, 37% said they plan to visit another region of Ukraine, 18% plan to go abroad, and 18% have not yet decided. Relatively more people planning a vacation in the second half of July are found among supporters of European Solidarity and Servant of the People, as well as among those who do not intend to take part in voting at all.

Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (29 May – 3 June, 2019)

05.06.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group between May 29 and June 3, 2019, 34% of respondents stated that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, while 37% held the opposite view and 29% were undecided. The positive dynamics of public sentiment continued. Relatively more optimistic assessments of the country’s situation were recorded among residents of the Center and South, the youngest respondents, as well as supporters of the political parties “Servant of the People” and “Strength and Honor.” In contrast, supporters of “European Solidarity” and “Opposition Platform – For Life” were the most pessimistic on this issue.
An absolute majority of respondents (88%) expected radical changes in the country. Only 4% supported stabilizing the situation so that it would not worsen, while 5% favored a return to the past. The demand for change was characteristic of the overwhelming majority of respondents across all age, regional, and electoral groups.
Half of those surveyed were satisfied with the performance of the newly elected President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while only 11% expressed dissatisfaction. At the same time, 39% had not yet been able to assess the work of the new Head of State. Satisfaction with the performance of former President Petro Poroshenko was reported by 16% of respondents, while more than 80% were dissatisfied. The work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman was positively assessed by 19% and negatively by 76%. More than 90% of respondents were dissatisfied with the performance of the Verkhovna Rada.
The leader in electoral preferences among political parties was “Servant of the People,” supported by 48.2% of those who intended to vote and had decided on their choice. At the time of the survey, the electoral threshold was also being overcome by “Opposition Platform – For Life” (10.7%), “European Solidarity” (7.8%), “Batkivshchyna” (6.9%), and the party “Voice” (5.6%). Support for other parties included “Strength and Honor” (4.3%), “Civic Position” (3.0%), and the Radical Party (2.4%), while all other political forces received less than 2%.
The party with the highest negative rating was “European Solidarity,” as 52% of voters stated that they would not vote for it under any circumstances.
When asked about the main motivation guiding their choice of a political party, 47% of respondents said it would be the party’s ability to bring change to the country. Another 30% stated they would vote based on a party’s ability to establish order. One in five respondents said they were motivated by the presence of many new faces in the party or by its representatives’ ability to combat corruption. For 14–15%, the key motives were the party’s support for social justice and the presence of a strong leader.
Support for a pro-Western orientation continued to prevail. A total of 62% supported Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (22% opposed), while 53% supported joining NATO (31% opposed). When choosing among several vectors of economic integration, 57% favored EU membership, 24% supported equal distance from both Russia and the West, and 10% favored joining the Customs Union. Support for European and Euro-Atlantic integration was noticeably stronger in the central and western regions, as well as among voters of “European Solidarity,” the party “Voice,” and “Civic Position.”
Two thirds of respondents supported Ukrainian as the sole state language. At the same time, 21% favored granting Russian the status of a state language, and another 11% supported granting it official status. The highest support for elevating the status of the Russian language was found among residents of the East, those who regularly use Russian in daily communication, and supporters of “Opposition Platform – For Life.”
A total of 65% of respondents considered Russia an aggressor toward Ukraine, while 27% held the opposite view. More than 60% supported diplomatic approaches to resolving the war in Donbas, with 38% favoring a cessation of hostilities and freezing the conflict, and 22% supporting granting these territories autonomous or federal status within Ukraine. Only 5% supported full separation of the occupied territories, while 18% favored continuing military action until full restoration of Ukrainian control over all of Donbas.

Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (16-21 May, 2019)

22.05.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group on May 16–21, 2019, 30% of respondents stated that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, while 49% expressed the opposite view. The dynamics of public sentiment have continued to shift in a positive direction since the beginning of the year. Relatively more respondents with optimistic views about the state of affairs in the country are found among residents of Western Ukraine, the youngest age group, and supporters of the BPP “Solidarity” party and the party of S. Vakarchuk.
The demand for radical changes in the country continues to grow, with 87% of respondents expressing support for such changes. Only 5% favor stabilizing the situation in order to avoid deterioration, and 6% support a return to the past. The demand for change is characteristic of the overwhelming majority of representatives of all age, regional, and electoral groups.
More than 70% of respondents support the idea of dissolving parliament and holding early elections to the Verkhovna Rada. The highest level of support is observed in the South and East of the country, where it exceeds 80%. At the same time, in other macro-regions, no fewer than 60% support the dissolution of parliament. A certain divergence in attitudes toward early elections is observed among supporters of the BPP Solidarity party, the majority of whom oppose this initiative.
The leader of electoral preferences among political parties is the Servant of the People party, supported by 43.8% of those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. The Opposition Platform – For Life is supported by 10.5%, BPP Solidarity by 8.8%, Batkivshchyna by 7.3%, the Strength and Honor party led by I. Smeshko by 5.1%, the party of S. Vakarchuk by 4.6%, the Radical Party of O. Lyashko by 3.3%, and the Opposition Bloc by 3.2%. The ratings of other parties are below 3%.
The Servant of the People party leads in all macro-regions. The Opposition Platform – For Life and the Opposition Bloc hold strong positions in the south-eastern regions. Other parties that retain chances of entering parliament are more competitive in the central and western parts of the country.
The Servant of the People party is also the leader of the so-called “second choice.” An additional 11.4% of respondents who intend to vote would support it if their current preferred party did not take part in the elections. In such a case, 7.1% could vote for the Opposition Platform – For Life, 6.4% for the party of S. Vakarchuk, 5.1% for Batkivshchyna, 4.9% for the Strength and Honor party, 4.3% for the Opposition Bloc, 3.7% for the Radical Party, 3.6% for Civic Position, and 3.1% for BPP Solidarity.
The party with the highest negative rating is BPP Solidarity: 51.9% of respondents said they would not vote for it under any circumstances.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents said that in parliamentary elections they would look for an alternative among new parties, while 26% are ready to vote for parties already represented in parliament. The demand for “traditional parties” is relatively higher among supporters of forces currently represented in the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, even among these groups, between 24% and 40% are ready to cast their votes for “new” political projects.
Support for a party’s socio-economic initiatives is the main motive for choosing a political force among respondents (59%). Fourteen percent vote primarily based on sympathy for the party leader, and 10% based on ideological principles. The leadership factor is relatively more important among supporters of the Radical Party, while ideology plays a greater role among supporters of BPP Solidarity. At the same time, nearly two thirds of voters of these political forces say they will vote primarily based on the party’s socio-economic initiatives.

Ukraine today: challenges and prospects

16.05.2019

The Social Monitoring Center, the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, and the Rating Group conducted a nationwide sociological study on current public issues titled “Your Opinion: May 2019.” The survey was carried out from April 30 to May 10, 2019, in all 24 regions of Ukraine and the city of Kyiv. A total of 3,000 respondents were interviewed. The method of data collection was face-to-face individual interviews at the respondent’s place of residence: 1,500 interviews using paper questionnaires and 1,500 using tablet-based questionnaires. Standard errors at a 95% confidence level and variable ratios from 0.1:0.9 to 0.5:0.5 range between 1.10% and 1.83%.
According to the survey results, 11.5% of respondents did not participate at all in voting during the 2019 presidential elections, while 4.6% refused to answer this question. In total, nearly 84% of respondents reported that they took part in voting in at least one round of the 2019 presidential elections. Participation in the first round on March 31, 2019, was confirmed by 78.9% of respondents, and the same share reported voting in the second round on April 21, 2019. Voting in both rounds was reported by 74% of respondents. Around 5% voted only on March 31, while 4.9% voted only on April 21.
Self-reported levels of support for candidates in the presidential elections on March 31 and April 21 are close to the official results of the Central Election Commission, with the exception of a higher-than-official level of support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the first round. Support for him was reported by 31.5% of all respondents, or 39.9% among those who confirmed participation in voting on March 31, 2019.
When asked about hypothetical parliamentary elections held the following Sunday, 79.2% said they would vote, including 49.3% who would definitely participate and 29.9% who would probably participate. Residents of regional centers reported higher readiness to vote, while rural residents showed lower readiness. Men and young voters aged 18–29 expressed below-average intentions to participate. Those who did not vote in the presidential elections are the least likely to vote in parliamentary elections, with fewer than one third of them expressing any readiness to participate.
Among voters, party support in the first half of May 2019 is as follows. “Servant of the People” (Volodymyr Zelenskyy) is supported by 29.5% of all respondents, or 39.9% among those who have decided and intend to vote. “Opposition Platform – For Life” (Yuriy Boyko, Vadym Rabinovych, Viktor Medvedchuk) is supported by 8.1% (10.9%), “Petro Poroshenko Bloc ‘Solidarity’” by 7.8% (10.6%), “Batkivshchyna” by 6.7% (9.1%), “Strength and Honor” by 3.8% (5.1%), “Civic Position” by 3.7% (5.0%), “Opposition Bloc – Party of Peace and Development” by 2.6% (3.5%), the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko by 2.4% (3.3%), “Svoboda” by 1.8% (2.4%), “Samopomich” by 1.5% (2.0%), and the party of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 0.7% (0.9%). Six political parties cross the 5% electoral threshold.
If parliamentary elections were held at that time, the results would indicate significant renewal. Among current parliamentary parties, only the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” “Batkivshchyna,” and “Opposition Platform – For Life” would enter the new parliament. New or relatively unfamiliar political forces with strong chances include “Servant of the People,” “Strength and Honor,” and “Civic Position.” The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko and “Samopomich” would not overcome the 5% threshold. The party with the highest anti-rating is the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” with 43.9% stating they would never vote for it.
Proposed projects of political party unification tested by researchers are currently unattractive to the electorate. After the presidential elections, public opinion demonstrates a high level of optimism: 49.7% expect improvements in Ukraine in the coming months, 20.9% expect deterioration, and nearly 30% are uncertain.
Less than a quarter of voters (22.3%) give the newly elected President no more than 100 days to demonstrate effectiveness, another 26.2% give six months, and 35.5% give one year. Overall, more than 80% of voters say they will form a final judgment of the President within one year based on actions and results.
One of the key expectations and disappointments of the Revolution of Dignity was a change in the system of power. Accordingly, the most frequently cited first step expected from the President is the removal of immunity from MPs, judges, and the President himself, mentioned by 53.7% of respondents. Issues related to resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine ranked second and third, including initiating direct negotiations in the “Ukraine–Russia–so-called DPR–so-called LPR” format to stop the fighting and return Donbas (40.9%), and ensuring the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war and detainees (38.4%). Dissolving the current parliament and holding early parliamentary elections was named by 38.1%.
About one third (33.7%) emphasized the need to ensure stability of the national currency and banking system. Lowering salaries of top officials was supported by 30.6%. Accelerating investigations into major corruption cases was mentioned by 25.8%, while 25.4% supported initiating a public discussion on the immediate replacement of the Prosecutor General, the head of the Security Service, the Prime Minister, and the current Cabinet.
The range of perceived challenges is broad. More than half consider the following issues very important: a ceasefire in Donbas (88.4%), return of Ukrainian POWs and detainees (84.3%), current prices and inflation (84.5%), wages and pensions (82.8%), utility tariffs (84.5%), the armed conflict in the East and reintegration of Donbas (80.2%), social protection (76.4%), healthcare quality (76.1%), employment and unemployment (75.7%), enrichment of oligarchs and impoverishment of ordinary people (74.4%), corruption and cronyism (73.7%), tax burden (65.9%), crime and street safety (61.4%), labor migration and demographic changes (60.9%), and the return of Crimea (53.9%).
Regarding the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and Free Trade Area, 23.7% noted a positive impact on Ukraine’s economic situation, 25.9% saw both positive and negative effects, 12.3% indicated a negative impact, 20% saw no impact, and 18.2% were undecided. If a referendum were held, 57% would vote for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, 19.3% for restoring pragmatic economic relations with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other CIS countries, 13.6% would not participate, and 10.1% were undecided.
Asked about Ukraine’s future path, 43.1% favor European integration and closer economic and cultural ties with EU countries, 37.8% support a development strategy focused primarily on internal resources, and 12.3% favor restoring economic and cultural ties with Russia. In a hypothetical referendum on NATO membership versus non-aligned status, 48.9% would vote for NATO membership, 23.2% for non-alignment, 16% would not participate, and 11.8% were undecided.
Attitudes toward most well-known politicians are predominantly negative. Exceptions include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with 64.6% positive and 13.9% negative attitudes; Anatolii Hrytsenko (33.5% positive, 26.9% negative); Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (31.0% positive, 24.1% negative); and Ihor Smeshko (28.6% positive, 17.4% negative, with 26.2% not knowing him). The top five politicians voters would like to see in the next parliament are Anatolii Hrytsenko (29.3%), Yuriy Boyko (26.7%), Ihor Smeshko (23.6%), Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (22.4%), and Yuliia Tymoshenko (21.1%).
The ten politicians whose public actions over the past month were most memorable to voters are Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, Oleh Liashko, Yuriy Boyko, Anatolii Hrytsenko, Volodymyr Groysman, Vadym Rabinovych, Oleksandr Vilkul, Nadiia Savchenko, and Viktor Medvedchuk.
Nearly half of respondents (49.2%) believe that the issue of the status of the non-government-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions should be decided by a nationwide referendum. A majority (65.3%) agree that Ukraine should make compromises for the sake of restoring peace and returning territories. Three quarters believe the President should engage in direct dialogue with Russia to achieve peace, while 55.4% also support dialogue with the leaders of the so-called “L/DNR.” The most supported solution for the non-controlled territories is granting them a special autonomous status within Ukraine (39.9%), followed by acknowledging temporary non-return and isolating them (18.5%), and continuing military actions to restore control (17.3%), the latter being most supported in western Ukraine.
Language policy and restrictions on Russian media products remain sources of regional division. Among Ukrainian TV channels, the most trusted are STB, 1+1, Ukraine, ICTV, Inter, Novyi Kanal, 112, and TET. The main TV sources of socio-political information are 1+1, Ukraine, ICTV, Inter, 112, STB, and Novyi Kanal.
Attitudes toward May 9 remain largely traditional, with 83% recognizing it as an important holiday. A majority (56.8%) believe its importance has increased, although in western Ukraine 44% reported a decrease in its significance. Nearly 70% do not support moving the celebration to May 8.

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (12-16 April, 2019)

18.04.2019

According to the survey conducted by the Rating Group at the end of the second week of April 2019, 48% of respondents expect an improvement in the situation in the country as a result of the presidential elections.
When answering the question “Which of these candidates will you vote for in the second round of the Presidential election in Ukraine?”, 52% said they would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, while 19% said they would vote for Petro Poroshenko. Another 19% were undecided, and 10% stated that they did not intend to vote. Among those who intend to participate in the second round, 58% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 22% for Petro Poroshenko, and 20% were undecided. Among respondents who intend to vote in the second round and have made their choice, 73% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and 27% for Petro Poroshenko.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi leads his opponent in all age groups. He is also the frontrunner among residents of the East, South, and Center of the country. In the West, as in the previous survey, the positions of the two candidates are nearly equal.
Sixty-two percent of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the next President of Ukraine, while 17% believe Petro Poroshenko will win. Another 22% were undecided. Among the electoral groups of candidates who achieved significant results in the first round, a relative majority is convinced that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the next head of state. Among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, half are convinced that their candidate will win, while slightly more than a quarter believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will prevail.
Answering a follow-up question regarding the level of confidence in their choice and participation in voting, 72% of those who intend to take part in the second round stated that they are fully confident in their choice and their intention to come to polling stations on April 21, 2019. Another 22% said that although they are not confident in their choice, they will still come and vote. Only 2% stated that they are unsure of their choice and are unlikely to come to vote. Overall voter mobilization among supporters of both candidates who advanced to the second round exceeds 80%.
Forty-eight percent of respondents expect an improvement in the situation in the country as a result of the presidential elections. Twenty-five percent have no expectations of change, while 10% expect deterioration. Relatively more respondents who believe in an optimistic post-election scenario are found among residents of the South and East, younger respondents, and voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
Half of the respondents believe that the new team of the President of Ukraine should be given at least one year to demonstrate positive results. At the same time, a quarter want to see achievements within six months, 14% expect results within three months, and 8% expect immediate changes. Among younger respondents and residents of the South and Center, there are somewhat more people who are willing to wait a year or longer to see the results of the future head of state’s work.
Seventy-six percent of respondents state that a situation in which their close relatives, family members, or acquaintances support a different candidate than they do in this election is completely normal. At the same time, 9% consider such a situation a mistake but say they will not try to influence others’ choices, while the same share say they will try to persuade their close ones to change their opinion. The latter position is most common among supporters of Petro Poroshenko (22%).
Twenty-eight percent of respondents are convinced that these elections have rather united the country, while 24% believe that the divide has instead deepened. At the same time, one third of respondents state that these presidential elections have neither divided nor united Ukraine. The highest share of those who see consolidating processes is among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi (38%), although every fifth of them still sees a possibility of division. Among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, one third see the elections as potentially divisive, while only 17% see them as unifying.

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (5-10 April, 2019)

11.04.2019

According to the survey conducted by the Rating Group based on the results of the first week of April 2019, about 30% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, while 55% hold the opposite view. After the first round of the presidential election, positive assessments of the country’s direction of development almost doubled. Residents of the West and the Center of the country assess the state of affairs in the country more optimistically.
Eighty-three percent of respondents believe that the country today needs radical changes. Only 6% are convinced that everything should remain as it is, as long as it does not get worse, while 7% favor a return to the past. Expectations of radical change dominate among representatives of all regional, age, and electoral groups.
Fifty-two percent of respondents expect an improvement in the situation in the country as a result of the presidential elections. After the first round of the presidential election, positive expectations increased by one and a half times. At the same time, 25% have no expectations of change, while another 7% expect deterioration. Relatively more respondents who believe in an optimistic post-election scenario are found among residents of the South, younger respondents, and voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
When asked “Which of these candidates will you vote for in the second round of the Presidential election in Ukraine?”, respondents answered as follows: 51% said they would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 21% for Petro Poroshenko. Another 18% were undecided, and 10% stated that they did not intend to vote. Among those who intend to vote in the second round, 61% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and 24% for Petro Poroshenko, while another 15% were undecided. Among those who intend to vote in the second round and have made their choice, 71% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and 29% for Petro Poroshenko.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi leads his opponent in all age groups. He is also the leader among residents of the East, South, and Center. At the same time, in the West the positions of both candidates are nearly equal.
Sixty-one percent of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the next President of Ukraine, while 17% believe Petro Poroshenko will win. Another 22% were undecided. Among the electoral groups of candidates who achieved significant results in the first round, a relative majority is convinced that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the future head of state. Among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, half are convinced of their candidate’s victory, while a quarter believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will win.
An analysis of the dynamics of voting motives for candidates in the second round of the presidential election indicates a growth of protest voting among voters of both candidates.
Thus, 75% of voters who are ready to support Petro Poroshenko in the second round are voting rather in favor of him, while 22% are voting rather against Volodymyr Zelenskyi (in February this figure was 12%). At the same time, 57% of voters who are ready to support Volodymyr Zelenskyi in the second round are voting rather in favor of him, while 41% are voting against Petro Poroshenko (33% in February).
In addition, 31% of respondents believe that when people choose Petro Poroshenko, they are voting directly for the personality, while 26% believe that in this way they are voting against Vladimir Putin. This position is more characteristic of voters in the West of the country. Among Poroshenko’s own voters, almost 40% vote not so much for Petro Poroshenko as against Vladimir Putin.
Twenty percent of respondents believe that when people choose Volodymyr Zelenskyi, they are rather voting directly for the personality, while 66% are thereby expressing protest against the existing situation in the country (50% in February). This is also acknowledged by Poroshenko’s voters. Even among Zelenskyi’s own voters, about 60% primarily express protest against the existing situation in the country through their choice.
Eighty-two percent of respondents stated that they had not personally encountered instances of vote-buying during this presidential election campaign. On the other hand, 17% said they had such experience: 8% personally, and 9% heard about it from relatives or acquaintances.
Thirty-nine percent of respondents stated that they expect significant fraud in the second round of the presidential election on April 21, 2019. Thirty-seven percent believe that fraud will be insignificant, and only 14% do not expect any electoral fraud at all. The highest share of those expecting significant fraud is found among residents of the South and East of the country.

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (22-27 March, 2019)

28.03.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by the rating Group based on the third week of March, more than 80% of respondents to some extent declare their readiness to take part in the Presidential election on March 31, 2019. In particular, half of respondents are absolutely confident that they will vote, while another third say they are more likely to vote than not.
At the same time, 58% are fully confident in their choice of candidate and will definitely come to vote for them. Meanwhile, about a quarter are not confident in their choice, but believe they will still go to vote.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi remains the leader of the presidential rating, supported by 26.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko share second place, each supported by 17% of voters. Anatolii Hrytsenko is supported by 9.8%, Yurii Boiko by 9.5%, Oleh Liashko by 5.4%, Oleksandr Vilkul by 4%, Ihor Smeshko by 3.5%, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi by 1.9%.
Every sixth respondent has not decided on a candidate. It is important that the largest share of undecided voters is found among the poorest voters, residents of Central and Western Ukraine, women, middle-aged people, and Ukrainian speakers.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi has the strongest electoral positions in the south-eastern regions and in the Center of the country. Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are strongest in the Center and the West, Anatolii Hrytsenko in the West, and Yurii Boiko and Oleksandr Vilkul in the East and South of the country. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is the leader of electoral sympathies in cities, while Yuliia Tymoshenko leads in villages. Zelenskyi is most popular among young and middle-aged voters, Tymoshenko among older voters, while Poroshenko has the strongest positions among middle-aged voters. If Zelenskyi and Hrytsenko are relatively more often supported by men, Tymoshenko is more often supported by women, and Poroshenko is supported equally by men and women.
Almost 41% of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will advance to the second round of the presidential election, 38% believe Yuliia Tymoshenko will do so, and 37% believe Petro Poroshenko will. Six percent of voters believe Yurii Boiko or Anatolii Hrytsenko will reach the second round. Belief in Poroshenko’s advancement to the second round is relatively higher in the West, in Tymoshenko’s advancement in the Center, and in Zelenskyi’s advancement in the South and East. Voters in Western Ukraine are the least certain about the participants of the second round.
The leaders of the so-called “second choice” (who respondents would vote for if the candidate they currently support does not participate in the election) are Volodymyr Zelenskyi (8.1%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (7.3%), and Yuliia Tymoshenko (6%). Almost 5% of voters would support Oleksandr Vilkul if their candidate did not run, while about 3% would support Yurii Boiko, Petro Poroshenko, Ihor Smeshko, or Oleh Liashko.
Voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, among all other candidates, mostly allow the possibility of supporting Yuliia Tymoshenko, while half would not choose any other candidate at all. Voters of Anatolii Hrytsenko allow the possibility of supporting Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Petro Poroshenko, and Ihor Smeshko. Voters of Yuliia Tymoshenko allow Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Anatolii Hrytsenko, and Oleh Liashko. Voters of Oleksandr Vilkul allow Yurii Boiko, and voters of Yurii Boiko allow Oleksandr Vilkul (the electorates of the latter overlap by almost half). Petro Poroshenko has the most stable electorate: the majority would not choose any other candidate, allowing only minor transfers to Anatolii Hrytsenko. Supporters of Ihor Smeshko allow the possibility of supporting Anatolii Hrytsenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi; supporters of Oleh Liashko allow Yuliia Tymoshenko, Anatolii Hrytsenko, and Volodymyr Zelenskyi; and voters of Ruslan Koshulynskyi allow Anatolii Hrytsenko and Petro Poroshenko

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians

25.03.2019

According to the results of a joint sociological survey conducted by three polling organizations (KIIS, the Razumkov Centre, and Rating Group), 35% of respondents believe that the situation in the country will improve as a result of the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, 2019 (over the last quarter this indicator increased from 31% to 35%). At the same time, 32% believe that the situation will not change, while 10% have negative expectations regarding the elections. A relatively higher level of optimism about improvements after the elections is observed among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Yuliya Tymoshenko, and Petro Poroshenko. The most negative expectations are recorded among those who do not intend to vote.
A total of 84% of respondents declare their readiness to take part in the presidential election.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the leader of the presidential rating, with 27.7% support among those who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliya Tymoshenko is supported by 16.6%, Petro Poroshenko by 16.4%. Arseniy Hrytsenko would receive 9.7%, Yuriy Boyko 8.4%, Oleh Lyashko 5.3%, Oleksandr Vilkul 4.0%, and Ihor Smeshko 3.7%. Support for other candidates is below 2%.
At this point, nearly one in four respondents has not yet decided on their choice. The highest share of undecided voters is observed in Halychyna, the North, the Center, and the East of the country.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the strongest electoral positions in the South and East, as well as in the Center, West, North, and in the capital. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko have stronger positions in the central and western macro-regions. Arseniy Hrytsenko performs best in the West and Halychyna, while Yuriy Boyko and Oleksandr Vilkul are strongest in the South, East, and Donbas. Oleh Lyashko has relatively higher support in the West, Center, and North.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the leader of support among young and middle-aged voters, while Yuliya Tymoshenko leads among older voters. Zelenskyy, Poroshenko, and Hrytsenko are relatively more often supported by men, whereas Tymoshenko is more often supported by women.
The highest anti-rating among candidates belongs to Petro Poroshenko: almost half of voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. Around 30% would not vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko, 20% for Yuriy Boyko, 18% for Oleh Lyashko, 14% for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and 11% for Oleksandr Vilkul.
Second-round modeling produced the following results: Yuliya Tymoshenko leads in a runoff against Petro Poroshenko (26% vs. 19%). At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy defeats both Petro Poroshenko (39% vs. 18%) and Yuliya Tymoshenko (34% vs. 21%).
Six political parties have a chance of entering parliament. The leader is the Servant of the People party, supported by 24.8% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. Support for Batkivshchyna stands at 17.6%, for BPP Solidarity at 14.7%, for Civic Position at 9.3%, for Opposition Platform at 9.2%, and for the Radical Party at 5.3%. Support for the Opposition Bloc is 4.4%, for Svoboda 3.1%, and for Samopomich 2.5%. Nearly 30% of respondents have not yet decided on their choice of political party.
The highest level of support for the Servant of the People party is recorded in the South and East of the country; for Batkivshchyna in the Center; for BPP Solidarity in Halychyna; and for the Opposition Platform and Opposition Bloc in the south-eastern regions and in Donbas.
A total of 65% of respondents stated that they had not personally encountered cases of vote-buying during this presidential election campaign. At the same time, 27% reported such experiences: 6% personally and 21% through relatives or acquaintances. Reports of vote-buying were most frequent among residents of the South, Donbas, the North, and the capital.
Forty-two percent of respondents expect significant electoral fraud in the presidential election on March 31, 2019. Another 41% believe that fraud will be minor, and only 6% do not expect any falsifications at all. The highest expectations of large-scale fraud are observed among residents of the South, supporters of Oleksandr Vilkul and Yuriy Boyko, as well as among those who do not intend to vote.

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (9-15 March, 2019)

19.03.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group in early March 2019, 69% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, while 16% hold the opposite view. Over the past month, the share of those who negatively assess the situation in the country has slightly increased.
A total of 84% of respondents, to one degree or another, declare their readiness to take part in the presidential election on March 31, 2019. The highest level of unequivocal readiness to come to polling stations is observed among residents of the West, the oldest respondents, and supporters of Petro Poroshenko, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, and Ihor Smeshko.
Among the factors that could prevent respondents from voting at polling stations, the most significant are possible provocations, queues at polling stations, and information about vote buying — these factors received scores of 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 respectively (measured on a 5-point scale, where 1 means “will not interfere at all” and 5 means “will strongly interfere”). Less significant factors are bad weather (1.7) and having vacation plans (1.8).
As of the end of the second week of March, Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the leader of the presidential rating, supported by 24.9% of those who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliya Tymoshenko ranks second (18.8%), followed by Petro Poroshenko (17.4%). Yuriy Boyko would receive 10.2%, Arseniy Hrytsenko 9.4%, Oleh Lyashko 5.8%, Oleksandr Vilkul 3.5%, Ihor Smeshko 3.1%, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi 2.2%. Over the past week, the electoral positions of the leading candidates have remained virtually unchanged.
One in six respondents has not yet decided on a candidate. Notably, the highest share of undecided voters is among the poorest respondents, rural residents, and women.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the strongest electoral positions in the south-eastern regions and in the Center of the country. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are strongest in the Center and the West, Arseniy Hrytsenko in the West, and Yuriy Boyko in the East. At the same time, Zelenskyy is the leader of electoral preferences in cities, while Tymoshenko leads in rural areas. Zelenskyy is the leading candidate among young and middle-aged voters, while Tymoshenko leads among older voters. Zelenskyy, Poroshenko, and Hrytsenko are relatively more often supported by men, whereas Tymoshenko is more often supported by women.
Petro Poroshenko tops the candidates’ anti-rating: nearly half of voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. About 30% would not vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko, 19% for Yuriy Boyko, 17% for Oleh Lyashko, 13% for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and 12% for Oleksandr Vilkul.
A total of 20.8% of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will become the next president. Victory for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected by 19.5%, and for Yuliya Tymoshenko by 18.6%. Thus, according to this indicator, the leading candidates are almost level. Only about 3% believe in the victory of Yuriy Boyko or Arseniy Hrytsenko. Over the past month, confidence in Zelenskyy’s victory has increased, while confidence in Poroshenko’s victory has slightly declined.
Second-round modeling produced the following results: Yuliya Tymoshenko leads in a runoff against Petro Poroshenko (28% vs. 19%). At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy wins in pairings with Petro Poroshenko (39% vs. 19%), with Yuliya Tymoshenko (35% vs. 22%), and with Arseniy Hrytsenko (34% vs. 26%).
The parliamentary rating is led by the Servant of the People party, supported by 22.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Batkivshchyna is supported by 19.1%, BPP Solidarity by 15.8%, the Opposition Platform by 10.2%, Civic Position by 7.9%, the Radical Party by 6.1%, Svoboda by 3.6%, and the Opposition Bloc and Samopomich by 3.2% each. Other parties receive less than 2% support.
Nearly one quarter of respondents have not yet decided on their party choice. Over the past month, the positions of the leading parties have strengthened. In terms of dynamics, Civic Position and BPP Solidarity gained the most support, while Samopomich lost ground.

Assessment of the election process: intentions and reasons for voting, trust and sympathies

11.03.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group in early March 2019, almost two thirds of respondents stated that they always take part in elections, while another 22% said that they almost always vote. Four percent of respondents indicated that they would be voting for the first time. Only 10% said that they almost never or never vote. The highest share of the latter group is among the youngest respondents and residents of Kyiv.
A total of 83% of respondents, to one degree or another, declare their readiness to take part in the presidential election on March 31, 2019. Among supporters of all leading candidates, around 80% express readiness to vote. A relatively lower level of mobilization is observed among the youngest age groups (18–25 and 26–35 years) and in Kyiv.
At the same time, when assessing the probability of their participation in voting on March 31, 2019 on a 10-point scale, only about two thirds expressed the highest level of confidence that they would come to vote. Relatively fewer such respondents are found among the youngest age group aged 18–25 (46%) and among those who are still undecided about their choice (64%). Among those who always vote in elections, more than 80% demonstrate the highest confidence. At the same time, among those who stated that they almost always participate in voting, this share is 42%, and among first-time voters it is 55%.
Eighty-two percent of respondents stated that they know exactly where their polling station is located. A relatively lower level of awareness about the voting location is observed among younger respondents, residents of Kyiv and Donbas, those who will be voting for the first time, or those who vote very rarely.
At the same time, only 18% of respondents have already checked whether their name is included in the voter lists.
Forty-four percent of respondents stated that they usually vote in the morning, between 8 a.m. and 12 p.m. Another 22% usually vote between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m., 10% between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., and only 5% after 6 p.m. Morning voting is preferred mainly by the oldest voters, while younger people tend to prefer midday and afternoon hours. Regionally, a relatively higher share of those who vote in the morning is observed among residents of the southern and central regions as well as Donbas, while in Halychyna a relatively higher share vote between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. Among those who usually vote in elections, the majority do so in the morning, with the highest shares among voters of Yuliya Tymoshenko, Yuriy Boyko, and Oleh Lyashko.
Only one third of respondents expressed readiness to stand in line at a polling station for more than one hour. At the same time, one third are willing to wait up to half an hour, and another one fifth up to one hour. The most “resilient” voters are in the East, North, and Halychyna, among the oldest respondents, and among voters of Oleksandr Vilkul and Yuriy Boyko. In contrast, supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Oleh Lyashko, and those who are undecided expressed the least willingness to stand in line for a long time to cast their vote.
Seventy-four percent of respondents stated that they are ready to sacrifice leisure time in order to vote in elections. At the same time, 16% hold the opposite view and would rather spend time with friends and not go to vote if they had to choose only one option. The highest share of the latter group is among the youngest respondents (18–25 years – 34%, 26–35 years – 23%), first-time voters (30%), and those who rarely participate in elections (45%).
Among the actors of the electoral process, international observers enjoy the highest level of trust (71%). Almost two thirds trust observers from civic organizations, law enforcement officers ensuring order at polling stations, members of precinct election commissions, and sociologists conducting exit polls. Observers from candidates are trusted by 58%, while the Central Election Commission is trusted by only 49% (38% do not trust it).
Among presidential candidates, Volodymyr Zelenskyy enjoys a relatively higher level of trust (43%). High levels of trust are also recorded for Yuliya Tymoshenko (28%), Anatoliy Hrytsenko (26%), and Petro Poroshenko (24%). Oleh Lyashko is trusted by 19% of respondents, Yuriy Boyko by 18%, Andriy Sadovyi by 17%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 16%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 13%, Ihor Smeshko by 13%, Oleksandr Vilkul by 12%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 10%.
At the same time, the highest levels of distrust are recorded for Petro Poroshenko (69%) and Oleh Lyashko (71%).
The leader of the presidential rating is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, supported by 24.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Yuliya Tymoshenko ranks second (18.3%), and Petro Poroshenko third (16.8%). Anatoliy Hrytsenko would receive 10.3%, Yuriy Boyko 9.9%, Oleh Lyashko 5.7%, Ihor Smeshko 3.3%, and Oleksandr Vilkul and Yevhenii Muraiev 2.7% each.
Over the past week, Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko have strengthened their positions.
Almost one quarter of respondents remain undecided about their candidate choice. Notably, the highest share of undecided voters is among the poorest respondents, those who usually vote most actively in elections, respondents of older and middle age, and more often among women in the Center and the West of the country.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the strongest electoral positions in the south-eastern regions. In Kyiv and the Center, he competes with Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko. The latter has strong positions in Halychyna and the West. The leader of Batkivshchyna has strong positions in the central-western regions and in the North of the country. The highest level of support for Anatoliy Hrytsenko is recorded in Halychyna, and for Yuriy Boyko in the south-eastern regions, especially in Donbas.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the leader of sympathies among respondents who will be voting for the first time (almost every tenth voter of the candidate), as well as among those who do not often vote in elections. Meanwhile, among respondents who always vote, he shares first place with Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, while Hrytsenko and Boyko also have relatively stronger positions in this group.
Twenty-two percent of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will become the next president. Twenty percent believe in the victory of Yuliya Tymoshenko, and 18% in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy and Tymoshenko show positive dynamics on this indicator, while Poroshenko’s figures have slightly weakened over the past week.
Half of respondents stated that their choice is guided by faith that the candidate they support can bring changes to the country. One third choose their favorite because the candidate has a real program for the country’s development, while one quarter cite belief that the candidate will lead the country in the right direction or has experience in public administration. One in five votes because the candidate opposes the existing system.
The motive of expecting change and protesting against the system is most strongly emphasized among Zelenskyy’s supporters. In contrast, a development program, a strong team, and leadership qualities most inspire voters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko. The latter’s voters also most often note that they choose their favorite due to experience in public administration; a similar motive is present among supporters of Tymoshenko, Hrytsenko, and Smeshko.
Almost one in ten supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Zelenskyy choose their candidate because they believe the candidate has the highest chance of winning. At least one in ten supporters of Zelenskyy and Lyashko choose their candidate because the others are even worse. Personal sympathy for the candidate also motivates voters of Zelenskyy, Lyashko, and Muraiev.
Almost three quarters of respondents believe that the main motive for voting for so-called “new faces” is the expectation of change in the country, while 18% are convinced that this phenomenon is driven by a desire for revenge against the so-called “old politicians” for what they have done to the country. This latter view finds relatively greater support among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, Anatoliy Hrytsenko, and Yuliya Tymoshenko.
Interestingly, almost one in five respondents would like Sviatoslav Vakarchuk to have taken part in the presidential election. The highest share of such respondents is found among voters in Western Ukraine and Kyiv, as well as among supporters of Hrytsenko, Zelenskyy, and Poroshenko.

Assessment of relations between the state and business. March 2019

06.03.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group, almost 40% of Ukrainians would like to have their own business, while another 10% already own one. At the same time, half of respondents do not express such aspirations. Over the past six months, the share of those who do not want to start a business has slightly increased (in June 2018 it was 41%). A higher level of desire to open one’s own business is observed among younger and more affluent respondents. Within the group of well-off respondents, one quarter stated that they already run their own business.
When assessing the role of the state in economic development, the majority of respondents (64%) primarily see it as ensuring income equality and social justice rather than establishing freedom of development and fair rules of competition. The latter approach is supported by 27%. Support for social equality has grown significantly over time, increasing from 48% in June of the previous year to 64% in February of the current year. State support for competition is more often favored by younger respondents, residents of the central and eastern regions, wealthier individuals, as well as those who want to have or already have their own business. At the same time, even among these groups, between 40% and 60% support the idea of social equality.
Two thirds of respondents tend to believe that the state hinders the activity of small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine. Only 7% think that public authorities contribute to the development of entrepreneurship, while 14% believe that the authorities currently do not interfere in business activities. Residents of the southern macro-region and respondents with lower incomes somewhat more often agree with the view that the state obstructs business activity in Ukraine.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents believe that the simplified tax system should be preserved, as it stimulates business development. Only 19% support abolishing this system, arguing that it allows tax evasion. One quarter of respondents were unable to form an opinion on this issue. Support for the simplified taxation system is higher among entrepreneurs, residents of central regions, and wealthier respondents.
An absolute majority of respondents (77%) support lowering bank lending rates for small businesses. Only 9% do not support this idea, while 14% were unable to answer. Those who already have or want to start their own business, middle-aged respondents, individuals with middle and low incomes, and residents of eastern regions are somewhat more inclined to support this initiative.
Among different categories of business representatives, respondents express the highest level of trust in small (63%) and medium-sized (60%) entrepreneurs. Twenty-seven percent stated that they trust owners of large businesses, compared to 20% in September 2018. At the same time, trust in oligarchs remains very low at 8%. Trust in businesspeople, especially medium and large-scale ones, is noticeably higher among respondents with higher income levels. In contrast, trust in small entrepreneurs is equally high across all age and income groups.

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians. February, 2019

04.03.2019

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group in February 2019, two thirds of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, while every fifth respondent believes they are moving in the right direction (since the beginning of the year, the latter indicator has increased from 14% to 21%).
Only 10% believe that Ukraine’s economic situation has improved over the past 12 months, while 60% have felt a deterioration. It is important to note that over the past five years this latter figure has decreased from 86% to 60%, while the share of respondents who believe that the situation has not changed has increased (from 11% to 27%).
At the same time, respondents assess the dynamics of changes in their own household’s financial situation somewhat better than that of the country as a whole. Twelve percent of respondents reported an improvement in their family’s economic situation over the past 12 months, half reported a deterioration, and 36% did not feel any changes.
Since the beginning of the year, voter mobilization has increased. Almost 85% of respondents (compared to 76% in December) stated that they definitely or rather intend to take part in the presidential elections in Ukraine. Relatively higher growth rates in willingness to vote were recorded in the South and East of the country.
The leader of the presidential rating is Volodymyr Zelenskyi, supported by 25.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The second position is shared by Petro Poroshenko (16.6%) and Yuliia Tymoshenko (16.2%). Yurii Boiko is supported by 11.3%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.7%, Oleh Liashko by 5.6%, Andrii Sadovyi by 3%, Yevhenii Muraiev by 2.5%, and Ihor Smeshko by 2.5%. Oleksandr Shevchenko, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, and Oleksandr Vilkul each receive close to 2%.
Over the past month, the ratings of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko have increased. A slight decline has been observed in the level of support for Yuliia Tymoshenko. The electoral indicators of other candidates have not undergone significant changes. At the same time, over the past month the share of respondents who have not decided on their choice has increased noticeably (from 15% to 25%).
Volodymyr Zelenskyi has relatively stronger electoral positions among voters in the South and East and is the leader of electoral ratings in Ukrainian cities. Petro Poroshenko leads in the West of the country. Yuliia Tymoshenko maintains her strongest positions in the Centre, where she shares first place with Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yuliia Tymoshenko have the highest potential for electoral growth (the so-called “second choice”): 7% of voters are ready to support each of them if their preferred candidate does not take part in the elections. Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko each have 4%.
Twenty-four percent of respondents believe that the next president will be Petro Poroshenko. Nineteen percent believe in the victory of Yuliia Tymoshenko, and 17% in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Over the past month, belief in Zelenskyi’s victory has increased significantly. Poroshenko’s indicators have also shown positive dynamics in this rating, while Tymoshenko’s indicators remain at the December level. At the same time, young people tend to believe in Zelenskyi’s victory, while older respondents tend to believe in the victory of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.
The anti-rating is led by Petro Poroshenko: almost half of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
Second-round modeling produced the following results: Yuliia Tymoshenko leads in a pair with Petro Poroshenko (31% versus 24%). At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyi wins both in a pair with Petro Poroshenko (42% versus 24%) and with Yuliia Tymoshenko (37% versus 24%).
The party rating is led by the Servant of the People party, supported by 21.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Fatherland is supported by 18.7%, Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” by 14.2%, Opposition Platform by 10.5%, Civic Position by 6.2%, and Self-Reliance by 5.5%. Around 4% support the Radical Party and Svoboda, around 3% support the Nashy party, and around 2% support the Opposition Bloc and UKROP.
It is noteworthy that Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko have significantly stronger personal electoral support than their respective parties, Servant of the People and Petro Poroshenko Bloc. A similar pattern is observed for Anatolii Hrytsenko and Oleh Liashko. In contrast, Yuliia Tymoshenko and Andrii Sadovyi have personal ratings that are lower than the ratings of their parties, Fatherland and Self-Reliance.

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