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Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: Kropyvnytskyi

16.10.2020

The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group between October 3–10 among residents of Kropyvnytskyi showed that 67% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, another 22% were undecided about participation, and 10% said it was unlikely that they would vote. Voter mobilization is relatively higher among older respondents and women.
In the rating for the Kropyvnytskyi City Council, the party Proposition is leading with 26.9% among those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. It is followed by the party City Perspective, supported by 18.8%, Servant of the People with 11.4%, Opposition Platform – For Life with 9.7%, European Solidarity with 8.4%, Batkivshchyna with 7.0%, For the Future with 4.4%, and Native City with 4.3%. The rating of other parties is below 3%. About 11% of respondents remain undecided.
Among mayoral candidates, the leader is Andrii Raikovych, with 49.2% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. Artem Stryzhakov is supported by 24.9%, Anatolii Larin by 8.0%, Olha Kovalova-Alokili by 6.9%, and Oleksandr Tsertii by 4.4%. The ratings of other candidates are below 3%. About 12% of respondents have not yet decided whom they will vote for.
Modeling of a possible second round of the mayoral election showed that if A. Raikovych were to advance to the runoff against other potential candidates, the incumbent mayor would win. In a matchup with A. Stryzhakov, the result would be 56% versus 33%; with A. Larin, 65% versus 18%; and with O. Kovalova-Alokili, 66% versus 17%.

Press

On Defender of Ukraine Day

14.10.2020

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group, 85% of respondents consider themselves patriots of their country, while 12% hold the opposite view. Patriotically minded citizens are present in roughly equal proportions across all regions of the country, and relatively more often among older respondents.
69% of respondents have a positive attitude toward establishing 14 October as the national holiday of the Defender of Ukraine Day, 23% feel neutral about it, and only 5% have a negative attitude. This holiday is perceived most positively by residents of the West and the Center. About 60% of respondents in the East and South view the holiday positively, around one third feel neutral, and only 6–7% have a negative attitude.
59% of respondents expressed readiness, in the event of a relevant threat, to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine with weapons in hand (in 2019 such respondents accounted for 56%, in 2017 – 54%, and in 2012 – 33%). Relatively more of these respondents are men, middle-aged individuals, and people with relatively higher incomes.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: Kryvyi Rih

12.10.2020

The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on 8–9 October among residents of Kryvyi Rih showed that 72% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, about 20% were undecided about whether to participate, and 8% said it was unlikely that they would vote. Voter mobilization is higher among older respondents.
In the rating for the Kryvyi Rih City Council, the Vilkul Bloc “Ukrainian Perspective” is leading with 33.8% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. It is followed by the Servant of the People party with 23.2%, the Opposition Platform – For Life with 10.3%, the Shariy Party with 8.2%, European Solidarity with 7.3%, Strength of the People with 6.1%, Batkivshchyna with 4.7%, and Proposition with 4.2%. The rating of other parties is below 2%. About 23% of respondents are undecided.
Among mayoral candidates, Yurii Vilkul is the leader with 40.8% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. 29.0% are ready to support Dmytro Shevchyk, 10.1% Kostiantyn Pavlov, 7.2% Yurii Yarovyi, and 5.5% Yurii Myloboh. The ratings of other candidates are below 4%. About 20% of respondents have not yet decided whom they will vote for.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (4-7 October, 2020)

07.10.2020

The results of the fourth wave of the survey conducted by Rating Group on October 4–7 recorded an increase in public awareness of the local elections.
58% of respondents know that the elections will take place on October 25, another 14% said they would be held sometime this month, and 2% named a different month or date. At the same time, 26% either do not know the date at all or hesitated to answer. In mid-September, only about one third knew the exact date of the local elections.
20% said they know which electoral system will be used for the local elections, compared to 13% in September. 26% acknowledged partial awareness of this issue, while more than half (55%) know nothing about it.
Over the past four years, confidence in the importance of one’s own vote in elections has increased. In 2016–17, about half of respondents said their vote did not matter. This year, such respondents account for about one third. More than half are convinced of the opposite. This view is most common among residents of Kyiv and Galicia, younger respondents, and those who stated they would definitely participate in the elections.
For one third of respondents, the most important factor in local elections is who will become the city or village mayor, while almost three times fewer (13%) consider it more important which parties will enter local councils. At the same time, 35% said it is equally important to them who becomes mayor and which political forces come to power.
81% of respondents said that when deciding whom to vote for in local elections, they make the decision independently. At the same time, 15% more often consult with relatives or close people. The latter are most common among the youngest and the oldest respondents, rural residents, women, and those living in Western Ukraine.
37% said they often follow local politics and decisions of local authorities, 31% do so occasionally, 20% rarely, and 8% are not interested in these issues at all.
27% discuss local election issues with family members, close people, or colleagues. 32% do so occasionally, 23% rarely, and 14% do not discuss them at all. Those who discuss local elections with close people are more common among older respondents.
58% of respondents stated that they would take part in the local elections. 21% are undecided (50/50), another 8% might take part, and 13% say it is unlikely. In the event of a worsening coronavirus situation, 46% confirmed readiness to participate in the elections, 23% are undecided (50/50), 9% might come to polling stations, and 21% say it is unlikely. Over the past week, trends in declared turnout have remained virtually unchanged.
According to information from territorial election commissions, during the fourth wave of the survey adjustments were made to the lists of parties that nominated candidates to regional councils. In total, 77 different parties were included in the rating, the vast majority of which are local parties running in one or several regional councils.
According to the aggregated party rating for the local elections as of October 7, five parties cross the conditional 5% threshold: Servant of the People with 17.2% among those who have decided and intend to vote, Opposition Platform – For Life with 12.6%, European Solidarity with 11.7%, Batkivshchyna with 7.5%, and For the Future with 7.2%. Almost all of these parties improved their results over the past week.
The party Our Land is supported by 4.0%. The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko has 3.9%, UDAR of Vitalii Klychko 3.0%, the Shariy Party 2.6%, Svoboda 2.4%, and the parties Holos, Palchevskyi’s Victory, and Strength and Honor each have 1.6%, while the Proposition party has about 1%. The combined rating of other parties, mostly local ones participating in the local elections and included in the survey list, is 22.2%.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: Oleksandriia

01.10.2020

The results of the survey conducted by Rating Group between September 26–28 among residents of Oleksandriia showed that city residents assess the local situation significantly more positively than the overall situation in the country. Thus, only 15% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 74% hold the opposite view. At the same time, 46% of city residents believe that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 43% think otherwise.
64% of respondents want changes in the city, including 40% who prefer gradual changes and 24% who support rapid changes. 32% are in favor of stability.
45% expect improvements after the local elections on October 25. 37% are convinced that nothing will change, and only 3% expect deterioration.
74% said that they would definitely take part in the local elections, another 12% are undecided (50/50), 3% may take part, and 10% are unlikely to vote. A relatively higher level of pre-election mobilization is observed among the older age group.
Among the mayoral candidates, Serhii Kuzmenko is the leader, with 58.5% among those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. 38.2% are ready to support Stepan Tsapiuk. 1.6% support Volodymyr Trofymenko. About 9% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (25-28 September, 2020)

01.10.2020

The results of the third wave of the survey conducted by Rating Group on September 25–28 showed that respondents generally trust the institutions responsible for organizing local elections. In particular, 74% of respondents trust the members of polling station commissions at their place of residence, while 21% do not. 61% trust the Central Election Commission, while 35% do not. Compared to the period of the previous parliamentary elections in July 2019, trust in these institutions has increased.
One third of respondents hope for positive changes in their cities and villages as a result of the October 25 elections. Half believe that nothing will change, and only 7% expect deterioration. The last two waves demonstrate a positive dynamic for this indicator across all age groups.
56% of respondents said they would definitely take part in the local elections. 20% are undecided (50/50), another 8% may take part, and 15% said their participation is unlikely. Over the last four waves, voter activity indicators have somewhat stabilized.
According to the aggregated party rating for the local elections, five parties pass the notional 5% threshold among those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 15.5%, European Solidarity by 11.4%, Opposition Platform – For Life by 11.4%, Batkivshchyna by 8.3%, and For the Future by 6.2%.
The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko is supported by 4.9%. Our Land and UDAR of Vitalii Klychko are each supported by 3.1%, Svoboda by 3.0%, the Sharii Party by 2.5%, Strength and Honor by 2.0%, Proposition and Holos by 1.8% each, and Palchevskyi’s Victory by 1.7%. The combined rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the study amounts to 23.4%.
The majority of respondents, between 60% and 70%, believe that at the local level it is more important for parties to have a strong local leader rather than a well-known national one, experienced politicians rather than “new faces,” and a strong team rather than a single strong leader.
59% believe that socio-economic initiatives are more important for a local party than its ideological position, which is considered more important by only 14%.
34% believe that for a local party it is more important to support President Zelensky’s course, while 26% think it is more important to be in opposition to the current president. At the same time, for nearly 40% the factor of supporting or opposing the authorities is not important when making their choice.
45% believe that for a candidate for mayor or village head it is more important to address current issues. Almost the same share, 43%, are convinced that it is more important for the candidate to propose a development strategy for the locality. Notably, older respondents place greater importance on strategy, while younger respondents prioritize current issues.
One third of respondents are ready to support the incumbent head of their locality in the elections, the same share would support another candidate, and 35% are undecided. Among those who choose the incumbent, 58% do so because they consider him or her a strong local leader, 16% because they see the incumbent as a good person, and 20% because they consider other candidates worse.
More than 90% know who their city or village head is, and 60% have personally met the head of their locality at some point, primarily residents of rural areas.
47% know who the member of parliament from their constituency is, while 50% do not. Only one third have ever met the MP personally. Residents of rural areas are more likely than city dwellers to know their constituency MP and to have met him or her in person.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: Bila Tserkva United Local Community

29.09.2020

The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on September 25–26 among residents of the Bila Tserkva territorial community showed that city residents assess the local situation significantly better than the situation in the oblast or the country as a whole. Thus, only 12% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 74% hold the opposite view. Regarding the oblast, 17% believe the direction of development is right, while 62% consider it wrong. At the same time, 43% of community residents believe that affairs in Bila Tserkva are moving in the right direction, although 47% hold the opposite opinion.
The quality of medical services (50%) and job creation (44%) are considered the main priorities for the work of the future head of the territorial community, according to respondents. Another 37% believe that the community leader should primarily focus on road repairs and safety in the city. A total of 29% consider combating land theft a priority, 26% point to waste collection and removal, 25% to drinking water quality, and 14–16% mention street lighting, increasing the number of schools and kindergartens, sidewalk repairs, water supply, and sewerage.
The activities of President Zelensky are approved by 25% of respondents and disapproved by 61%. Only 9% approve of the work of Prime Minister Shmyhal, 63% disapprove, and 28% found it difficult to assess. The activities of parliament are approved by 7% and disapproved by 82% of respondents.
The work of the Bila Tserkva mayor, Hennadii Dykyi, is approved by 66% of respondents and disapproved by 26%. A total of 67% are not opposed to the incumbent mayor being re-elected, while 27% stated the need to elect a new figure.
A total of 79% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, another 7% are undecided (50/50), 3% may take part, and 10% say it is unlikely they will vote. A relatively higher level of pre-election mobilization is observed among the older population.
In the city council rating, the party “Za Maibutnie” is in the lead with 40.5% among those who intend to vote and have made their choice. It is followed by the party “Bila Tserkva Razom,” which is supported by 23.6%. A total of 7.0% would vote for the “Batkivshchyna” party, 6.8% for “European Solidarity,” 5.6% for the “Servant of the People” party, and 3.7% for the “Opposition Platform – For Life” party. The rating of other political forces is below 3%. About 10% remain undecided.
Among mayoral candidates, Hennadii Dykyi is the leader with 53.6% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. A total of 27.8% are ready to support Mykola Babenko. The ratings of other candidates are below 4%. About 5% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.
Modeling of the second round of mayoral elections showed that if H. Dykyi were to advance to the runoff against other potential candidates, the incumbent mayor would win. In a matchup with M. Babenko, the result would be 60% versus 31%, and in a matchup with D. Kyryshun, 68% versus 9%.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: Ternopil (September 9–17)

29.09.2020

The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group between September 9 and 17 among residents of Ternopil showed that 60% of respondents believe that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 29% hold the opposite view. When assessing the situation in the region, 38% said that affairs in the oblast are developing in the right direction, and the same share believe they are moving in the wrong direction, while about a quarter were unable to give an assessment.
Only 20% of Ternopil residents believe that affairs in Ukraine as a whole are developing in the right direction, while 65% disagree with this. Similarly, 65% are dissatisfied with the performance of President V. Zelenskyi, and only 23% are satisfied. Most respondents were unable to assess the performance of the Head of the Oblast Council and the Head of the Oblast State Administration; however, among city residents there are more dissatisfied than satisfied with their work (14% are satisfied and 24% dissatisfied with the performance of Oblast Council Head V. Ovcharuk; 11% are satisfied and 33% dissatisfied with the performance of Oblast State Administration Head V. Trush).
In the local elections on October 25, a quarter of respondents intend to support a local party, while 57% plan to support a national party, and another 18% were unable to answer. Likewise, a quarter of respondents said they would definitely vote for a local party, and another half might vote for such a party under certain circumstances, while 18% said they would not vote for a local party.
65% said they would definitely take part in parliamentary elections if they were held in the near future, another 13% would rather participate, while about 20% said it is unlikely or they would definitely not vote. Voter mobilization is higher among older respondents.
The leader in the parliamentary party rating is the party “European Solidarity,” which is supported by 23.6% among those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. Among decided voters, 16.2% plan to vote for the party “Servant of the People,” and 14.6% for the party “Svoboda.” Another 7.8% would vote for “Holos,” 7.0% for “Batkivshchyna,” 5.4% for “For the Future,” 4.3% for “Strength and Honor,” and 4.0% for “Civic Position.” The ratings of other parties are below 5%, while about 13% have not yet decided.
The anti-rating for parliamentary elections is led by the parties “Opposition Platform” and “Servant of the People,” for which about 32% of voters would under no circumstances vote. 19% would definitely not vote for “European Solidarity,” 15% for the Radical Party, 13% for “Batkivshchyna,” 11% for the Shariy Party, and 10% for UDAR. About 7–8% would not vote for “Holos,” “Svoboda,” “Ukrainian Strategy,” or “For the Future.”
69% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, another 11% would rather participate, while about 18% said it is unlikely or they would definitely not vote. The share of those intending to vote is higher among older respondents.
In the rating for the Oblast Council, the parties “European Solidarity” and “Svoboda” are tied for the lead, each with 20.2% among those who intend to vote and have decided. They are followed by the party “Servant of the People,” supported by 15.4%, and the party “For the Future,” with 13.6%. On the threshold of passing the electoral barrier are “Batkivshchyna” and “Strength of the People,” with 5.1% and 4.0% respectively. Another 3.5% would vote for “Holos” and the Ukrainian Galician Party, and 2.5% for “Strength and Honor.” The ratings of other parties are below 3%, while about 17% have not yet decided.
The anti-rating for the Oblast Council is also led by “Servant of the People” and the “Opposition Platform,” for which about one third of voters would under no circumstances vote. Another 18% would never vote for “European Solidarity,” 15% for “Batkivshchyna,” 13% for UDAR, 12% for the Radical Party, 9% for “For the Future,” and 8% for “Svoboda.” About 6–7% would not vote for the parties “Dovira,” “Holos,” “Strength of the People,” or “Strength and Honor.”

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: KHERSON

28.09.2020

The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group between September 17 and 23, 2020 among residents of Kherson showed that respondents assess the situation both in the city and in Ukraine equally pessimistically. Thus, only 9% of respondents said that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 77% believe the opposite. Regarding Ukraine, only 12% state that the direction of development in the country is correct, while 73% consider it incorrect.
A total of 58% said they would definitely take part in the local elections. Nineteen percent of respondents do not intend to vote. A relatively higher level of electoral mobilization is observed among women, older respondents, and lower-income respondents.
Among mayoral candidates, Ihor Kolykhaiev is the leader with 31.2% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. A total of 23.2% are ready to support Volodymyr Saldo, 13.4% Yurii Kyrylov, 8.6% Mykhailo Opanashchenko, and 5.3% each Ivan Hlukhiv and Vasyl Fedin. A total of 3.3% would support Mykola Kononenko. The ratings of other candidates are below 3%. About 13% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.
Modeling of the second round of mayoral elections showed that if Ihor Kolykhaiev and Volodymyr Saldo were to advance to the runoff, the leader of the party “Nam tut zhyty!” would win with a result of 57% versus 34% among those who intend to vote. In a matchup with Yurii Kyrylov, Ihor Kolykhaiev would also win, with a result of 59% versus 25%.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: TERNOPIL

28.09.2020

The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group on 24 September 2020 among residents of Ternopil showed that Serhii Nadal (Svoboda) holds the leading position among candidates for mayor of the city, with 75.6% among those who have decided and intend to vote. The ratings of other candidates are significantly lower. Thus, 5.4% are ready to cast their votes for Viktor Ovcharuk (European Solidarity), 5.1% for Ivan Sorokolit (Syla Liudei), 4.6% for Viktor Hevko (Servant of the People), 3.7% for Leonid Bytsiura (Batkivshchyna), and 3.3% for Iryna Yaremchuk (Ukrainian Galician Party). The ratings of other candidates are below 1%. About 9% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.
Modeling of the second round of the mayoral election showed that if S. Nadal and other potential candidates were to advance to it, the incumbent mayor would win. In a matchup with I. Sorokolit, the result would be 83% versus 10%, with V. Ovcharuk – 81% versus 11%, and with L. Bytsiura – 82% versus 9%.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: MARIUPOL

28.09.2020

The results of the survey conducted by the Rating Group between 18 and 24 September among residents of Mariupol showed that city residents assess the local situation much more positively than the overall situation in the country. Thus, only 14% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 69% hold the opposite view. At the same time, 62% of city residents believe that affairs in Mariupol are developing in the right direction, although 24% think otherwise.
67% said that they will definitely take part in the local elections, about 20% are hesitating (50/50), and 12% say it is unlikely that they will vote.
In the rating for the Mariupol City Council, the Vadym Boichenko Bloc leads with 55,2% among those who intend to vote and have made their choice. Next is the “Opposition Platform – For Life” party, which 23,3% are ready to support. 5,7% would vote for the “Servant of the People” party, and 5,5% for the Shariy Party. The rating of other political forces is below 3%. About 8% have not decided.
80% of respondents do not mind the current mayor being elected to this position again. Only 14% spoke about the need to elect a new person.
Among mayoral candidates, Vadym Boichenko is the leader with 72,4% among those who intend to vote and have decided. 11,9% are ready to support Volodymyr Klymenko, 4,1% Artur Androshchuk, and 3,0% Maksym Borodin. The ratings of other candidates are below 2%. About 7% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (19-22 September)

24.09.2020

The results of the second wave of the survey conducted by Rating Group on September 19–22 showed that respondents continue to have contrasting feelings when assessing the situation in their own cities and in the country as a whole. Thus, 58% of respondents said they feel hope when thinking about the local situation, while 38% feel disappointment. In contrast, when it comes to the situation in the country, the picture is reversed: 59% feel disappointment and 37% feel hope.
Despite this, 77% of respondents want their children and grandchildren to live in Ukraine, while only 16% hold the opposite view. As for living in their own city or village, 61% would like their descendants to continue living in the same locality, while about a third would not. Interestingly, residents of villages are relatively more likely to support the idea that the next generation should remain in Ukraine, yet they are also relatively more inclined to want their children and grandchildren to change their place of residence. In contrast, the situation in regional centers is largely the opposite.
Positive expectations from local elections are gradually increasing. One third of respondents, compared to one quarter previously, have hope for positive changes in their cities and villages after October 25. Half believe that nothing will change, and only 7% expect the situation to worsen.
55% of respondents stated that they would definitely take part in the local elections. 21% are undecided (50/50), another 8% may take part, and 15% indicated that participation is unlikely. A relatively higher readiness to participate in elections is observed among the oldest age groups, where about 70% say they will come to the polls. Among young people aged 18–29, only about one third say they will vote. In all age groups except the oldest, there is a gradual decline in interest in participating in voting.
A possible worsening of the coronavirus situation has a negative impact on voter activity. Under such conditions, only 45% declare their readiness to take part in elections. 23% are undecided (50/50), 10% report possible participation, and 21% say participation is unlikely. Modeling such a scenario affects readiness to vote across all age groups.
According to the aggregated party rating in local elections, five parties pass the notional 5% threshold. Servant of the People has 15.6% among those who have decided and intend to vote, Opposition Platform – For Life has 11.5%, European Solidarity 11.0%, Batkivshchyna 8.0%, and For the Future 5.9%. Over the past week, the first four parties in this group, all parliamentary parties, have jointly lost nearly 1.5%.
The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko is supported by 4.4%. UDAR of Vitalii Klychko is supported by 3.4%, Svoboda by 3.3%, the Shariy party by 3.0%, Holos by 2.7%, Our Land and Victory of Palchevskyi by 2.4% each, the Proposition party by 2.1%, Strength and Honor by 1.5%, and Samopomich by 1.2%. The combined rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the survey is 21.8%.
When comparing levels of trust, 35% said they trust local authorities more, while 17% trust central authorities more. Another 17% trust authorities at both levels, while about one quarter do not trust either.
55% believe that local authorities are closer to people than central authorities, while only 9% think the opposite. There are relatively more people who see local authorities as closer to citizens among village residents.
In terms of professionalism, 31% of respondents give preference to local authorities, while 22% favor central authorities. 18% consider both levels of government to be professional, and 19% consider neither to be so. Local authorities are more often seen as professional in regional centers.
When it comes to honesty, a relative majority of respondents, 33%, do not give preference to either level of government. 27% consider local authorities to be more honest, only 13% consider central authorities to be more honest, and 15% believe both levels are honest.
39% believe that due to decentralization the situation in their locality has improved, 36% think it has not changed, and only 16% have seen deterioration. Half of respondents do not see a threat of the country splitting as a result of decentralization, while about one third hold the opposite view. The latter are relatively more common among older respondents and village residents.
Respondents believe that control over the activities of newly elected local authorities should be exercised by citizens themselves, as stated by 50%. Other institutions, such as civil society organizations, central and local authorities, and law enforcement agencies, are trusted less in this matter, with support ranging from 5% to 14%.
A significant share of respondents are also willing to take part in the political and civic life of their region, at 45%, but not as deputies of local councils. Instead, they prefer participation through elections, delegating authority to others.
Only 13% of respondents would like to be deputies of a local council, 9% members of parliament, 7% heads of a city or village, and 5% president of the country.
At the same time, citizens want to elect not only deputies or mayors, but also the head of the oblast, supported by 83%, local judges, supported by 71%, and prosecutors, supported by 68%. 57% support the idea of creating a municipal police force subordinate to local authorities, while 30% are opposed.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: CHERNIVTSI

22.09.2020

The results of the survey conducted by Rating Group between 18–20 September 2020 among residents of Chernivtsi show that respondents assess the situation in the city and in Ukraine with equal pessimism. Only 12% of respondents say that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 77% believe the opposite. Regarding Ukraine as a whole, only 16% consider the country’s development to be moving in the right direction, whereas 70% say it is moving in the wrong direction.
A total of 65% of respondents stated that they will definitely take part in the local elections. Another 15% are undecided (50/50), 4% say they might participate, and 16% say that participation is unlikely.
In the ranking of political forces in the elections to the Chernivtsi City Council, the leading positions are held by Servant of the People with 14.2% among those who have decided and intend to vote, Ridne Misto with 12.2%, Yedyna Alternatyva with 10.7%, and the Chernivtsi Residents party with 10.6%. European Solidarity is supported by 9.0%, Proposition by 8.2%, Batkivshchyna by 7.0%, Opposition Platform – For Life by 4.7%, and Holos by 3.0%. The ratings of other political forces are below 3%, while around 9% of respondents remain undecided. Over time, support has increased for Ridne Misto, the Chernivtsi Residents party, Proposition, and Yedyna Alternatyva, while Servant of the People and Batkivshchyna have lost support.
Among mayoral candidates, the leading positions are held by Vitalii Mykhailishyn (Ridne Misto) with 22.1% among those who have decided and intend to vote, and Oleksii Kaspruk (Proposition) with 18.9%. Another 15.0% are ready to vote for Mykola Fedoruk (Chernivtsi Residents party), 11.0% for Roman Klichuk (Yedyna Alternatyva), and 10.2% for Vitalii Druhanovskyi (Servant of the People). The ratings of other candidates are below 5%. Around 14–15% of respondents remain undecided. Over the course of the month, support has increased for V. Mykhailishyn, R. Klichuk, and V. Druhanovskyi.
Second-round modeling produced the following results. In a matchup between V. Druhanovskyi and O. Kaspruk, Kaspruk would narrowly win with 35% versus 30%. In a contest between O. Kaspruk and M. Fedoruk, the candidate from the Chernivtsi Residents party would prevail with 39% versus 29%. In a matchup between V. Druhanovskyi and R. Klichuk, the candidate from Yedyna Alternatyva would win with 34% versus 22%. In a contest between R. Klichuk and M. Fedoruk, Fedoruk would win with 39% versus 31%. In a matchup between R. Klichuk and O. Kaspruk, there is currently no clear winner, with 35% versus 33% in favor of the Yedyna Alternatyva candidate.

Press

Monitoring of local elections 2020: VINNYTISA region

18.09.2020

The results of the survey conducted by Rating Group between 1–13 September among residents of Vinnytsia region show that people in the region assess the local situation significantly more positively than the overall situation in the country. Only 13% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 69% hold the opposite view. Assessments of the situation in the oblast are more optimistic: 33% believe that affairs in the region are moving in the right direction, while 43% believe they are moving in the wrong direction. Evaluations at the local level are even more positive, with 44% saying that the situation in their cities or villages is developing in the right direction and 43% expressing the opposite opinion.
Among respondents, feelings of disappointment prevail at 38%. At the same time, 28% report feeling hope, 13% interest, 11% joy, and around 8–9% indifference, sadness, anger, or confusion.
Volodymyr Groysman leads the trust ranking among national politicians. He is trusted by 61% of respondents and not trusted by 31%. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trusted by 31% and not trusted by 61%. Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 21% and not trusted by 72%. Yuliya Tymoshenko is trusted by 19% and not trusted by 74%. Ihor Smeshko is trusted by 16%, not trusted by 43%, and 33% say they do not know him. Yuriy Boyko is trusted by 14%, not trusted by 55%, and 21% say they do not know him.
Regarding the performance of public authorities, 25% are satisfied with the work of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while 65% are dissatisfied. The work of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal is approved by 11% and disapproved by 62%, while 27% could not assess it. Only 8% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, while 81% are dissatisfied.
A total of 67% of respondents stated that they will definitely take part in the local elections. Another 14% are undecided (50/50), 5% say they might participate, and 12% say participation is unlikely. A relatively higher readiness to vote is observed among older respondents and residents of rural areas.
In the ranking of political forces in the elections to the oblast council, the Ukrainian Strategy party is in the lead, supported by 33.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote. This is followed by Servant of the People with 15.8%, Batkivshchyna with 10.8%, European Solidarity with 10.7%, Opposition Platform – For Life with 6.0%, the Radical Party with 4.6%, the Vinnytsians party with 4.4%, and Strength and Honor with 3.4%. The ratings of other parties are below 3%, while around 20% of respondents remain undecided.

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Monitoring of local elections 2020: KYIV oblast

18.09.2020

The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group between 11 and 17 September among residents of Kyiv Oblast showed that 35% of respondents frequently follow political news in Ukraine. Another 25% do so occasionally, 22% rarely, and 18% do not follow politics at all. Political developments within the oblast are followed frequently by 28% of respondents, occasionally by 28%, rarely by 24%, and not at all by 20%. A relatively higher level of interest in political news is observed among older respondents and urban residents.
According to the survey, 58% said they would definitely take part in the local elections, while about a quarter are undecided about participation. Another 19% consider it unlikely that they will vote. Electoral mobilisation is higher among older respondents and women.
The Servant of the People party leads the rating of political parties for the Kyiv Oblast Council, supported by 25.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Among decided voters, 14.5% plan to vote for Batkivshchyna, 12.2% for European Solidarity, 7.9% for the Opposition Platform – For Life, 6.0% for For the Future, 5.6% for UDAR, 5.2% for the Radical Party, 3.9% for Victory of Palchevskyi, and 3.5% for Holos. Support for other political forces is below 3%. Between 21% and 24% of respondents remain undecided.

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Monitoring of local elections 2020: VINNYTSIA

17.09.2020

The results of the survey conducted by the Rating Group during 1–13 September among residents of Vinnytsia showed that 76% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of the mayor, while only 14% are dissatisfied. The work of the city council is viewed positively by 64% of respondents, 19% are dissatisfied, and 17% were unable to assess its performance.
Regarding national authorities, 22% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, while 67% are dissatisfied. The work of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal is approved by 11% and disapproved by 63%, with 25% unable to assess it. Only 6% of respondents are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, while 80% are dissatisfied.
In the party ratings for the Vinnytsia City Council, the Ukrainian Strategy party leads with 51.2% among those who have decided and intend to vote. European Solidarity is supported by 11.1%, Servant of the People by 10.3%, Opposition Platform – For Life by 4.7%, Batkivshchyna by 4.6%, the Vinnytsians party by 4.2%, and Strength and Honor by 3.2%. The ratings of other political forces are below 3%, while about 14–15% of respondents remain undecided.
Among candidates for mayor of Vinnytsia, Serhii Morhunov is the clear leader, with 72.9% support among those who have decided and intend to vote. Other candidates have significantly lower support: Serhii Borzov has 5.8%, Viktor Broniuk 4.8%, Serhii Kudlaienko 3.8%, and Volodymyr Prodyvus 3.0%. The support for other candidates is below 3%, and about 11% of respondents remain undecided.
Modeling of a potential second round of mayoral elections shows that if Serhii Morhunov advances to the runoff against other potential candidates, the incumbent mayor would win in all tested pairings. Against Serhii Borzov, the result would be 77% versus 9%, against Viktor Broniuk 76% versus 10%, against Andrii Hyzhko 78% versus 7%, and against Serhii Kudlaienko 78% versus 8%.

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Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE

17.09.2020

The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group from 12 to 15 September 2020 showed that respondents experience contrasting emotions when assessing the situation in their own cities and in the country as a whole. Thus, 56% of respondents stated that they feel hope when thinking about the local situation, while 41% at the same time feel disappointment. In contrast, when it comes to the situation in the country, 61% feel disappointment and 35% feel hope. A relatively higher share of those who feel hope in both cases is observed among younger respondents and residents of regional centers.
Only 35% of respondents know the exact date of the local elections in Ukraine. At the same time, 43% do not know at all when the elections will take place, 19% know that they will be held sometime in October but do not know the exact date, and another 3% named other dates. Knowledge of the election date is mainly characteristic of older respondents.
A total of 69% of respondents do not know under which electoral system the local elections on 25 October 2020 will be held. Only 13% confidently stated that they know how the voting will take place, while 18% reported partial knowledge. A relatively higher level of awareness of the electoral system is demonstrated by older respondents. Among the youngest age group (18–29 years), almost 80% do not know anything about the electoral system.
According to the survey, 57% of respondents stated that they will definitely take part in the local elections. Another 19% are undecided (50/50), 9% said they might take part, and 15% indicated that participation is unlikely. A relatively higher readiness to participate in the elections is shown by older age groups, women, and respondents with a higher level of awareness of the election date and system.
The study presents an aggregated rating of parties in the local elections, calculated as the sum of all political parties’ results in elections to regional councils in each oblast, and to the city council in Kyiv. Respondents chose from a list that was unique for each regional council. In total, 65 different parties were included in the aggregated rating, the vast majority of which are local parties running in one or several regional councils.
According to the aggregated party rating in the local elections, the Servant of the People party is supported by 16% of those who have decided and intend to vote in elections to regional councils. The Opposition Platform – For Life party is supported by 11.9%, European Solidarity by 11.3%, Batkivshchyna by 8.2%, Za Maibutnie by 5.8%, the Radical Party by 4.7%, UDAR led by Vitalii Klitschko by 3.7%, Svoboda by 3.3%, the Sharii Party by 2.8%, Holos by 2.2%, Propozytsiya and Palchevskyi’s Victory by 2.1% each, Nash Krai by 2.0%, Syla i Chest by 1.5%, and Samopomich by 1.2%. The combined rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the survey is 21.2%.
While in elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine the combined rating of the five main parties currently represented in parliament amounts to 72%, in local elections their aggregated figure is 50%. Compared to parliamentary ratings, noticeable electoral losses at the local level are observed for the Servant of the People party, with 26% at the parliamentary level versus 16% at the local level, the Opposition Platform – For Life with 17% versus 12%, European Solidarity with 16% versus 11%, Holos with 4% versus 2%, and Syla i Chest with 4% versus 2%. At the same time, growth is observed for parties such as Za Maibutnie, UDAR, and Propozytsiya.
When assessing the areas in which local authorities have achieved the greatest success, respondents most often mentioned roads and sidewalks at 54% and parks and public squares at 36%. Improvements in public transport were mentioned by only 12%, healthcare by 9%, education and housing and utilities by 7% each, and environmental issues by 5%.
At the same time, when speaking about the main priorities in the work of local authorities, respondents most frequently mentioned healthcare at 58%, the economy and job creation at 33%, education at 27%, and the fight against corruption at 23%.
A total of 52% expect minor falsifications in the local elections on 25 October 2020. Another 22% believe that falsifications will be significant, while 20% do not expect them at all. Compared to the presidential elections in 2019, expectations of electoral fraud have significantly decreased.

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Monitoring of local elections 2020: MYKOLAIV region

16.09.2020

The results of the survey conducted by Rating Group during September 11–15 among residents of Mykolaiv region showed that 41% of respondents frequently follow political news in Ukraine. 23% do so occasionally, 20% rarely, and 16% are not interested in politics at all. Political developments in the oblast are followed frequently by 28%, occasionally by 27%, rarely by 26%, and not followed at all by 20%. A relatively higher level of interest in political news is observed among older respondents and residents of the oblast center.
59% of respondents stated that they would definitely take part in the local elections. 19% are undecided (50/50), another 7% may take part, and 14% indicated that participation is unlikely. A relatively higher willingness to participate in elections is demonstrated by older age groups and women.
In the rating of political forces in the elections to the oblast council, the leading party is Servant of the People, which is supported by 24.6% of those who have decided and intend to come to the polls. 17.5% are ready to support the Opposition Platform – For Life party. 7.4% support European Solidarity, 7.1% support the Mykolaiv Residents party, 6.6% each support the For the Future party and the Our Land party, 6.2% support the Batkivshchyna party, 5.8% support the Shariy party, 5.3% support the Radical Party, and 4.4% support the Proposition party. The ratings of other forces are below 3%. Those who are undecided account for 21–23%. 6.8% of respondents stated that they would not vote.
The party ratings for the Mykolaiv City Council are led by Servant of the People and the Proposition party, supported by 21.9% and 21.5% respectively among those who have decided and intend to come to the polls. The Opposition Platform – For Life party is supported by 17.4%, the Mykolaiv Residents party by 8.5%, the For the Future party by 8.4%, European Solidarity and the Shariy party by 6.9% each, and the Victory of Palchevskyi party by 3.3%. The ratings of other political forces are below 2%. About 11% have not decided on their choice.
Among candidates for Mayor of Mykolaiv, the leader is Oleksandr Sienkevych (Proposition), who is supported by 30.5% of those who have decided and intend to take part in the elections. The ratings of other candidates are significantly lower: Tetiana Dombrovska (Servant of the People) – 16.4%, Vladyslav Chaika (Opposition Platform – For Life) – 12.6%, Artem Illiuk (self-nominated) – 10.8%, Yurii Granaturov (For the Future) – 8.6%, Ihor Diatlov (Mykolaiv Residents) – 8.5%, and Tetiana Kravchuk (Shariy party) – 3.9%. The ratings of other candidates are below 3%. Those who are undecided account for about 10%.

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Monitoring of local elections 2020: Kropyvnytskyi

16.09.2020

The results of the survey conducted by the Rating Group during 18–25 August among residents of Kropyvnytskyi showed that city residents assess the local situation significantly better than the overall situation in the country. Thus, only 20% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 65% hold the opposite view. At the same time, 49% of city residents believe that affairs in the city are moving in the right direction, while 36% think otherwise.
41% of respondents believe that today the country most needs stability, 34% believe the country needs gradual changes, and 23% support rapid changes in the state.
61% are satisfied with the work of the mayor, while 27% hold the opposite view. 49% are satisfied with the work of the city council, while 33% are dissatisfied.
68% are satisfied with the operation of public transport, while 24% are dissatisfied. 37% are satisfied with educational institutions, 36% are dissatisfied, and 27% were unable to assess. 36% are satisfied with the work of the police, while 45% are dissatisfied. 30% are satisfied with the work of municipal enterprises of the city (housing services, landscaping, lighting, etc.), while 65% of respondents are dissatisfied. The greatest dissatisfaction among city residents concerns the work of medical institutions: 76% of respondents gave negative assessments of their activities, while 18% are satisfied.
63% noted that during the term of the current mayor the situation in the city has improved, 30% believe it has not changed, and only 3% have seen deterioration.
59% of respondents are not opposed to the current mayor being re-elected to this position. 32% spoke about the need to elect a new person.
83% expressed definite readiness to take part in local elections. Electoral mobilization is higher among older residents.
In the rating for the Kropyvnytskyi City Council, the “Proposition” party is leading with a rating of 29.4% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. Next is the “Perspektyva Mista” party, which is supported by 14.9%, followed by the “Servant of the People” party with 14.6%, the “Batkivshchyna” party with 11.8%, “Opposition Platform – For Life” with 8.7%, the “European Solidarity” party with 5.0%, the Radical Party with 4.7%, and the “For the Future” party with 4.1%. The rating of other political forces is below 2%. About 12% have not decided.
Among mayoral candidates, Andrii Raikovych is the leader with 47.4% among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. 17.8% are ready to support Artem Stryzhakov, 8.6% Anatolii Larin, 9.2% Oleksandr Tsertii, 8.5% Olha Kovalova-Alokili, and 4.8% Oleksandr Horbunov. The ratings of other candidates are below 3%. About 10% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.

Press

Social and political mood of the population (3–6 September)

16.09.2020

According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on 3–6 September 2020, 68% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, while 18% assess the direction of development as correct.
63% of respondents are convinced that Ukraine’s economic situation over the past six months has rather deteriorated. Only 7% have seen an improvement, while 26% did not feel any changes. 49% of respondents spoke about a deterioration in the economic situation of their own family. Only 6% stated that their financial situation had improved, and 44% believe that nothing has changed.
Assessing the near future, 32% do not expect any changes in the country’s economic situation over the next six months, 43% expect deterioration, while 15% expect improvement.
57% are convinced that the main reason why an economic crisis may occur this autumn is the incompetence of the authorities. 26% see the cause in the worsening of the coronavirus epidemic, and 8% in the continuation of the war in Donbas.
45% of respondents believe that the measures introduced by the authorities to combat coronavirus are optimal. 23% consider them too mild, while 18% consider them too strict. It is characteristic that since April the number of those who believe that anti-epidemic measures are too mild has been increasing, while at the same time the number of those who consider the measures too strict has also been growing.
61%, when assessing the risks from the epidemic, say that they fear the economic consequences of this crisis more than the disease itself. On the other hand, 29% are more afraid of the illness.
35% of respondents are satisfied with the activities of President V. Zelenskyy, while 57% are dissatisfied. 23% are satisfied with the activities of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada D. Razumkov, 55% are dissatisfied, and 23% could not assess. Only 14% are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister D. Shmyhal, while 59% are dissatisfied and 27% could not assess. Among central government bodies, respondents are most dissatisfied with the work of the Government (73%) and the Verkhovna Rada (76%).
Among security agencies, respondents assessed the army most favorably: 51% are satisfied and 32% are dissatisfied. 33% positively assessed the work of the National Guard, while 43% hold the opposite view and 25% could not assess. Assessments of other law enforcement agencies are somewhat worse. Thus, 26% are satisfied with the work of the police and 63% are dissatisfied. 23% are satisfied with the activities of the Security Service of Ukraine, 50% are dissatisfied, and 27% could not assess. 20% are satisfied with the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 63% are dissatisfied, and 17% could not assess. 13% are satisfied with the Prosecutor General’s Office, 64% are dissatisfied, and 24% could not assess. Only 11% are satisfied with the activities of the courts, while 69% are dissatisfied and 20% could not assess. Respondents are least satisfied with the activities of anti-corruption bodies — NABU, NACP, and SAP. Only 7–10% of respondents spoke favorably about their work, while more than 60% held the opposite opinion.
Assessing the influence of key politicians and heads of institutions on government ratings, respondents relatively better evaluated the work of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada D. Razumkov. 25% believe that his activities positively affect the popularity of the current governing team, while the same share holds the opposite opinion. 18% believe that his work has no impact on these indicators, and 32% could not answer at all.
Regarding other key politicians, respondents’ opinions are as follows. 13% believe that the activities of Prime Minister D. Shmyhal positively affect government ratings, while 32% hold the opposite view. 13% believe that the activities of Minister of Internal Affairs A. Avakov have a positive impact, while 41% think otherwise. 10% believe that the activities of the Head of the Presidential Office A. Yermak positively affect government ratings, while 32% think the opposite. 8% believe that the activities of the head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction D. Arakhamia have a positive impact, while 28% hold the opposite view. Only 6% believe that the activities of Prosecutor General I. Venediktova and NABU Director A. Sytnyk positively affect government ratings, while about one third hold the opposite opinion.
In the presidential rating, the leader is V. Zelenskyy, whom 29% of those who have decided and intend to participate in voting are ready to support. 15.5% would vote for Y. Boyko, 14% for P. Poroshenko, 9.3% for Y. Tymoshenko, 6.4% for I. Smeshko, and 3.6% each for O. Lyashko, S. Prytula, and V. Groysman. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. About 14% have not decided.

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